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[Episode #272] – Global Energy Crisis 2026

Mar 25 2026

Full Episode

The attacks on Iran by US and Israel have touched off a regional conflict that has resulted in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil and LNG transits, and is doing severe, ongoing damage to oil and gas infrastructure throughout the Persian Gulf. We are now in a new global energy crisis.

IEA coordinated the largest release ever of oil from strategic reserves to calm the oil market, but traders shrugged it off and oil prices kept climbing, because a physical disruption at this scale is totally unprecedented. Even so, veteran oil traders and journalists have warned that the world is still not recognizing the depth of the actual peril it's in. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol called this crisis "the greatest global energy security threat in history" and said, "I believe the world has not yet well understood the depth of the energy security challenge we are facing." IEA also admonished governments to take steps to conserve fuel, including urging their citizens to drive more slowly, work from home, take public transport and car sharing, avoid air travel, and switch to electric cooking. The last time IEA called for such wide-ranging demand reduction was in the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo.

The consequences are already cascading well beyond oil: Fertilizer prices have surged 25 to 40 percent, and a similar increase in the price of diesel will flow through to essentially everything, causing "fossilflation." In response, governments across Asia have begun curbing consumption: Bangladesh is shutting universities early to save power, Thailand and Vietnam are pushing civil servants to work from home, and Myanmar has imposed fuel rationing. And that's just the beginning.

To help us understand this rapidly-worsening reality, we are joined by Rory Johnston, one of the most widely cited independent oil market analysts, founder of the Commodity Context newsletter, and host of the Oil Ground Up podcast. Johnston, who typically avoids alarmist price calls, says $200 a barrel minimum is now on the table. We discuss why the world's emergency supply tools aren't working, where oil prices could go from here, and why this crisis has thrown the world into uncharted territory.

It could take the world years to recover from this…but in that interim, it's likely to accelerate the energy transition.

To help everyone cut through the fog of war and disinformation, and understand what is happening and how it will affect them, we are publishing this episode without a paywall. So please share it widely.

Guest:

Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, host of the Oil Ground Up podcast, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines.

He is a leading voice on oil market analysis, advising institutional investors, global policy makers, and corporate decision makers. His views are regularly quoted in major international media including the Financial Times, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, Reuters, BNN Bloomberg, CBC, and Financial Post, and he frequently appears on numerous market and industry podcasts (e.g., Bloomberg’s Odd Lots, Hidden Forces, etc.).

Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank where he set the bank’s energy and metals price forecasts, advised the bank’s executives and clients, and sat on the bank’s senior credit committee for commodity-exposed sectors.

On the Web:  Commodity Context

Podcast: Oil Ground Up podcast

On Twitter: @Rory_Johnston

On Bluesky: @roryjohnston.bsky.social

On LinkedIn: Rory Johnston

Geek rating: 8

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[Episode #270] – View from the Energy Transitions Commission

Feb 25 2026

Mini Episode

Both the IEA and BNEF now project that current policies put us on track for roughly 2.5°C of warming. Some voices, like Daniel Yergin and Bill Gates, argue we should accept that trajectory and focus only on the technologies that are already winning. But even 2.5°C is still much too high. We can and must do better.

To help us take stock of the global energy transition in today's conversation, we are fortunate to be joined by Lord Adair Turner, co-chair of the Energy Transitions Commission (ETC), headquartered in London. The Commission is a global coalition of major power and industrial companies, investors, environmental NGOs, and experts working on achievable pathways to limit global warming while stimulating economic development and social progress. Lord Turner chaired the UK Climate Change Committee from 2008 to 2012, chairs insurance group Chubb Europe, and is a crossbench (non-partisan) member of the House of Lords.

We discuss how the transition is reshaping geopolitics, why the ETC's forecasts for green hydrogen have been cut roughly in half, and what Europe's green industrial policy (including its carbon border adjustment mechanism) needs to get right. We explore the roles of China and the UK in mobilizing capital for the developing world, how the UK has achieved a 75% decarbonization of its power sector in just 14 years, and what Turner calls 'double banking' — the core challenge of the mid-transition, where we're paying to build new energy systems while the old ones can't yet be switched off.

Turner makes the case that well below 2°C is still achievable, but only if we return to the climate imperative alongside the technological opportunity.

Guest:

Lord Adair Turner chairs the Energy Transitions Commission, a global coalition of major power and industrial companies, investors, environmental NGOs and experts working out achievable pathways to limit global warming to below 2˚C by 2040 while stimulating economic development and social progress.

In addition, he is chairman of insurance group Chubb Europe as well as of Oaknorth Bank (a UK start-up lending money to small and medium companies); he is a board member of battery production company AESC Japan; and Advisor to Watershed Technologies Inc. since 2023.

Lord Turner chaired the UK’s Financial Services Authority from 2008 to 2013, overseeing the UK’s policy and regulatory response to the Global Financial Crisis and  playing a lead role in the post crisis redesign of global banking and shadow banking regulation.

During his public policy career, he was Director General of the Confederation of British Industry (1995-2000); chaired the UK Low Pay Commission (2002-2006); the Pensions Commision (2003-2006); and the UK Climate Change Committee (2008-2012) an independent body to advise the UK Government on tackling climate change. The recommendations set out in their first report “Building a low-carbon economy” were adopted in 2009. He became a cross bench member of the House of Lords in 2006.

Amongst his business roles, Lord Turner was at McKinsey & Co (1982-1995) and has served in several Non-Executive Directorships across a wide range of financial, business and not-for-profit boards, such as Merrill Lynch Europe (2000-2006), Standard Chartered plc (2006-2008), Prudential (2015-2019), Overseas Development Institute (2007-20200, Save the Children (2006-2008).

Lord Turner is the author of “Between Debt and the Devil” (Princeton 2015), and Economics after the Crisis (MIT 2012). He makes regular contributions in the printed press, in the UK and abroad.

He is a Trustee Emeritus of the British Museum, honorary fellow of The Royal Society, and received an Honorary Degree from Cambridge University in 2017.

Lord Turner has an MA in History (First class with Distinction) and an MA in Economics (First Class) from Gonville and Caius College, Cambridge University.

On X: @AdairTurnerUK

Energy Transitions Commission on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/energy-transitions-commission/

On the Web: Energy Transitions Commission

Geek rating: 6

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[Episode #269] – Trump’s War on the Energy Transition

Feb 11 2026

Mini Episode

In the first year of his second term, President Donald Trump waged an all-out war on the energy transition. His administration canceled hundreds of projects created under the Inflation Reduction Act, IIJA, and CHIPS Act, blocked offshore wind farm development, and forced aging fossil-fueled power plants to continue operating after their utility owners planned to shut them down. It weaponized every federal agency from Interior to the Department of Commerce against renewable energy, seized Venezuela's oil, and pulled the US out of participation in key UN climate bodies.

The results have been staggering. Over 22 GW of wind and solar projects have been thwarted or thrown into limbo, and fully half of the country's planned new power capacity, some 117 GW, is at risk of delay. The Department of Energy has issued "emergency" orders to keep six aging coal and gas plants open, invoking a provision of the Federal Power Act originally written for wartime. None of these federal interventions were requested by a utility, grid operator, or state regulator. Courts have been pushing back hard, calling these actions arbitrary, capricious, unreasonable, and seemingly unjustified.

Whether any of these executive actions will survive is the central question. In today's conversation, we are rejoined by Ari Peskoe, Director of the Electricity Law Initiative at Harvard Law School, to walk through dozens of Trump's energy interventions and assess which ones are likely to hold up against the growing wave of legal challenges being brought against them. As we discuss, the courts are doing a surprisingly effective job of striking down the administration's illegal maneuvers. But every project delayed or canceled while the cases grind through court is inflicting real damage on the energy transition.

Guest:

Ari Peskoe is Director of the Electricity Law Initiative at Harvard Law School.  He has written extensively about electricity regulation, on issues ranging from rooftop solar to Constitutional challenges to states’ energy laws.

On Twitter: @AriPeskoe

On the Web: Electricity Law Initiative at Harvard Law School

Geek rating: 1

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[Episode #265] – IEA World Energy Outlook 2025

Dec 17 2025

Mini Episode

In November, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its annual World Energy Outlook (WEO) report. It was greeted with cheers from the fossil fuel industry and jeers from energy transitionistas, but there is much more to the report than either camp's narratives suggest. So Chris returned to IEA headquarters in Paris to discuss the WEO with lead author Tim Gould, as he has done for the past two years (Episode #215 and Episode #248), to get the story straight from the source.

What he found is that the revived Current Policies Scenario (CPS) shows what could happen if the energy transition is stopped in its tracks and fossil fuel demand continues to grow, as the Trump administration has stated it would like to see. While other scenarios explore continued progress in energy transition consistent with recent reports, where oil demand still peaks around 2030, and coal demand falls before the decade ends.

The report's updated global data tells another story. The oil industry spends $550 billion annually on upstream development, and 90% of that just keeps production flat. Meanwhile, 45% of new heavy freight trucks sold in China this year run on electricity or LNG, not diesel. And in the Middle East, solar is increasingly displacing oil for electricity generation and desalination of water. In Saudi Arabia alone, this could free up over a million barrels of daily consumption.

In fact, in this year's report, IEA declares that "the Age of Electricity is here." For the first time, more than half of all energy sector investment is flowing into electricity. Renewables grow "faster than any other major energy source in all scenarios."

The picture is clear: the energy transition is still going strong.

Guest:

Tim Gould is co-head of the World Energy Outlook series at the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA). He designs and directs the work together with the IEA’s Chief Energy Modeller and contributes to the Outlook as a principal author. He also oversees the Agency’s analysis of energy investment and finance, including the World Energy Investment series. Tim has been at the IEA since 2008, and joined initially as a specialist on Russian and Caspian energy before going across to join the World Energy Outlook team under the (then) Chief Economist, Fatih Birol, who is now the IEA’s Executive Director. Before IEA, he worked on European and Eurasian energy issues in Brussels and also spent ten years working in Eastern Europe, primarily in Ukraine. He studied at Oxford University and Johns Hopkins SAIS.

On Twitter: @tim_gould_

On the Web:  http://www.iea.org

Geek rating: 8

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[Episode #250] – Russia Revisited

May 21 2025

Mini Episode

Three years after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the resulting Western sanctions, the country remains an oil and gas powerhouse. Despite falling from the world's second-largest to third-largest global oil producer and seeing its export rankings decline, Russia continues to delay the global energy transition as a major fossil fuel supplier and geopolitical force.

Western observers often struggle to understand Russia's future role in energy geopolitics and the intentions of President Vladimir Putin. To shed light on these questions, we welcome back Thane Gustafson, Professor of Government at Georgetown University and a leading authority on Russian political economy. He is the author of many books, notably Klimat: Russia in the Age of Climate Change, which we covered at length in Episodes #162 and #163.

In this nearly two-hour conversation, we explore his newest book, Perfect Storm—Russia's Failed Economic Opening, the Hurricane of War and Sanctions, and the Uncertain Future. Gustafson carefully explains how Russia's post-Soviet reopening to the West failed, how the Crimea occupation precipitated that failure, and where Western sanctions have succeeded or failed in containing Putin's ambitions. We examine Russia's oil and gas resources, infrastructure, business capacity, and the evolving relationships between Russian oligarchs and Western governments. The discussion reveals how Russia has evaded energy export sanctions, unpacks Putin's motivations, and assesses Russia's fading fortunes as global energy transition efforts accelerate.

Guest:

Thane Gustafson is a Professor of Government at Georgetown University. A widely recognized authority on Russian political economy and formerly a professor at Harvard University, he is the author of many books, notably Klimat: Russia in the Age of Climate Change; The Bridge: Natural Gas in a Redivided Europe and Wheel of Fortune: The Battle for Oil and Power in Russia, as well as Russia 2010 and What it Means for the World.

On the Web:

Thane’s personal website

Thane’s Georgetown Faculty Profile

Geek rating: 5

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[Episode #242] – IEA Outlook 2025

Jan 29 2025

Mini Episode

What important trends are shaping the energy transition today? And what is the outlook for oil and gas demand?

In this conversation, Tim Gould of the International Energy Agency (IEA) returns to discuss key insights from the agency’s flagship annual report, the World Energy Outlook 2024. We consider the enormous implications of IEA’s view that global demand for all fossil fuels will peak and begin a slow decline within the next five years. To explore this, we take a closer look at the state of the oil and gas industry, comparing its expectations to what climate science and energy system modeling tell us about the future of fossil fuels. We also consider how the energy transition could reduce overall demand for fossil fuels, creating excess supply imbalances that reshape global markets and trade geopolitics.

Our discussion also touches on the IEA’s forecast that low-emission electricity sources like solar, wind, and nuclear will account for more than half of global power generation before 2030. Further, we explore the rising energy demand from data centers, shifting expectations for hydrogen, and the investments needed to keep clean energy growing at a pace that meets our climate targets.

Guest:

Tim Gould is co-head of the World Energy Outlook series at the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA). He designs and directs the work together with the IEA’s Chief Energy Modeller and contributes to the Outlook as a principal author. He also oversees the Agency’s analysis of energy investment and finance, including the World Energy Investment series. Tim has been at the IEA since 2008, and joined initially as a specialist on Russian and Caspian energy before going across to join the World Energy Outlook team under the (then) Chief Economist, Fatih Birol, who is now the IEA’s Executive Director. Before IEA, he worked on European and Eurasian energy issues in Brussels and also spent ten years working in Eastern Europe, primarily in Ukraine. He studied at Oxford University and Johns Hopkins SAIS.

On Twitter: @tim_gould_

On the Web:  http://www.iea.org

Geek rating: 7

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[Episode #221] – Fossilflation

Apr 3 2024

Mini Episode

What causes inflation? And how is it connected to the energy transition?

Standard business press narratives often discuss inflation as if it has a mind of its own, seldom exploring its root causes. However, the connection between inflation and fossil fuel prices is both undeniable and significant. In fact, as you’ll hear at the end of today’s interview, endless interventions by the Fed may be an unavoidable consequence of the energy transition, from now until the project is complete.

So why aren’t we having a conversation about how Putin’s invasion of Ukraine ultimately led to your having to pay more for everything, as inflation was transmitted through from fossil fuels to everything else? Why did Congress give us the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022, instead of the Fossil Fuel Reduction Act? And what is the role of the Fed in the energy transition?

In this conversation, climate economist Gernot Wagner of the Columbia Business School rejoins us to help us understand the relationships between fossil fuels and inflation. We discuss why the Fed acts as it does, and we explore the Inflation Reduction Act in the US and the REPowerEU policy package in the EU, and the complex interconnections between monetary policy, industrial policy, and energy policy.

Guest:

Dr. Gernot Wagner is a climate economist at Columbia Business School. His research, teaching, and writing focus on climate risks and climate policy. Prior to joining Columbia as senior lecturer and serving as faculty director of the Climate Knowledge Initiative, Gernot taught at NYU, Harvard, and Columbia. He was the founding executive director of Harvard’s Solar Geoengineering Research Program. Prior to his time at Harvard, Gernot worked at the Environmental Defense Fund, the Boston Consulting Group, and the Financial Times. He has been a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations, a Senior Fellow at the Jain Family Institute, and is a CESifo Research Network Fellow, a Faculty Affiliate at the Columbia Center for Environmental Economics and Policy, a Member of the New York City Panel on Climate Change, a Coordinating Lead Author of the Austrian Panel on Climate Change, and he serves on the board of CarbonPlan.org.

On Mastodon: https://fediscience.org/@gwagner

On Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/gwagner.com

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gwagner/

On the Web:  https://gwagner.com/

Geek rating: 6

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[Episode #216] – COP28 and the Outlook for Oil

Jan 24 2024

Mini Episode

Following from the December COP28 climate summit, we find ourselves at a pivotal juncture with the world’s governments clearer than ever about “transitioning away from fossil fuels.” Now, what is next for the oil sector and for all of us—the consumers of oil? Is COP’s sweeping announcement setting a ceiling for the global ambition on climate, or merely a floor?

As oil is phased out sector-by-sector, how can the electrification of vehicles handle demand for road transport? And what about the sectors where substitutes are still a work in progress, like petrochemicals, aviation and shipping? Is it really feasible to phase out oil completely, as we discussed with the IEA in the previous episode?

In this episode, we explore these questions with Anand Gopal, the Executive Director of Policy Research at Energy Innovation, an energy transition think tank based in San Francisco. We review the findings from several of Energy Innovation’s recent reports, we discuss the outlook for oil demand, and we get Anand’s first-person observations from this year’s COP.

Geek rating: 9

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[Episode #215] – IEA’s New Oil & Gas Outlook

Jan 10 2024

Mini Episode

In December 2023, a landmark declaration emerged from the COP28 climate conference: For the first time, the world’s climate delegates agreed that a global "transition away" from fossil fuels is essential. This historic pronouncement marked a significant shift in tone from previous climate conferences and formalized the energy transition as a global priority, underscoring the urgency of the climate crisis.

But what are the implications for the oil and gas industry? To address this question we turn to the latest analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA), which has some clear guidance about what must be done to prevent global warming from exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial temperatures.

In November 2023, Chris traveled to the IEA’s headquarters in Paris, France to discuss their perspectives with two of their lead modelers: Tim Gould, the co-head of the IEA’s World Energy Outlook reports who you’ll remember from Episodes #148 and #171, and Christophe McGlade, the Head of the IEA’s Energy Supply Unit who you’ll remember from Episode #166.

In this 98-minute conversation, we focus on the IEA’s updated outlook for oil and gas, drawing on findings from their World Energy Outlook 2023, their November 2023 oil market report, their updated Net Zero Roadmap, and a new groundbreaking report, The Oil and Gas Industry in Net Zero Transitions. We explore how the energy transition is cutting into demand for oil and gas, and the serious implications for producers. We also show why the industry must pivot to working on energy transition solutions, or prepare for their own obsolescence.

Geek rating: 8

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[Episode #211] – Doomers vs. Transitionistas

Nov 15 2023

Full Episode

Should our response to global warming focus on technologies that reduce emissions, or on embracing simpler lifestyles? Why do some believe that deploying more renewables and accelerating the energy transition is essential, while others advocate for ‘degrowth’ instead, and claim that switching to renewables is counterproductive?

Today’s conversation explores a recent paper by lifecycle assessment researcher Marco Raugei of Oxford Brookes University, in which he describes an ongoing debate between “systemic pessimists” who focus on humanity’s demands for resources and dismiss renewable technologies, and “technological optimists” who focus on the technologies of the energy transition but do not address other planetary boundaries. We describe these two tribes and their beliefs, identify their points of disagreement, and try to suggest a way forward.

We’ll also discuss another recent paper Marco co-authored exploring whether there are important material limits to the energy transition. And to wrap it up, Chris offers his longest monologue yet, in which he draws a distinction between “techno-optimists” and energy transition advocates, and suggests some ways that we might advance the debate beyond its current unhelpful framing.

Ultimately, we hope this episode will persuade some “systemic pessimists” to consider shifting their narrative from doom and to refocus on actively solving problems, including the problem of global warming.

Geek rating: 9

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