It has long been assumed that India, China, and other developing countries of Southeast Asia would power their vigorous economic growth for decades to come with coal. We heard over and over that China is building a new coal-fired power plant every three days, and about plans for multi-gigawatt sized coal-fired power plants in India. As long as coal was the cheapest form of power, addressing our climate emergency seemed like a lost hope.
But that nightmare is now evaporating thanks to the continuously declining costs for solar, wind, and battery storage. Although there are far too few policymakers (not to mention the major energy agencies, like EIA and IEA) who appear to be aware of it, the future of coal is fading by the day, as solar and wind take the lead as the lowest cost forms of power. And nowhere is this new reality more starkly evident than in India, where a remarkable pivot away from coal has been under way for about five years now, radically reshaping the outlook for India’s energy consumption, and stranding billions of dollars in investments in coal plants that will not be used as expected. At the same time, India is busily electrifying 18,000 villages, pushing forward on the electrification of transportation, and developing demand-side technologies that together are more likely to make India one of the world’s great success stories in energy transition than one of the world’s largest upcoming carbon emitters.
Our guest in this episode has been closely watching these markets for three decades, and is one of the sharpest observers of what’s happening in India and Southeast Asia. This episode is Part One of our two-and-a-half hour conversation with him, which mostly covers India and coal. Part Two of this interview will be featured in Episode 93.
Geek rating: 4
Tim Buckley is Director of Energy Finance Studies for the Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), with a key focus on the Indian electricity sector transformation. Tim has 30 years’ financial markets experience, covering Australia, Asian and global equities. He provides financial analysis in the electricity sector for IEEFA, studying energy efficiency and renewables across China and India, and stranded asset risk in Australia. Tim was co-founder of Arkx Investment Management, a global listed clean energy equities fund, and prior to that, was Managing Director at Citigroup and Head of Australasian Equity Research.
On Twitter: @TimBuckleyIEEFA
On the Web: Tim’s publications for IEEFA