What important trends are shaping the energy transition today? And what is the outlook for oil and gas demand?
In this conversation, Tim Gould of the International Energy Agency (IEA) returns to discuss key insights from the agency’s flagship annual report, the World Energy Outlook 2024. We consider the enormous implications of IEA’s view that global demand for all fossil fuels will peak and begin a slow decline within the next five years. To explore this, we take a closer look at the state of the oil and gas industry, comparing its expectations to what climate science and energy system modeling tell us about the future of fossil fuels. We also consider how the energy transition could reduce overall demand for fossil fuels, creating excess supply imbalances that reshape global markets and trade geopolitics.
Our discussion also touches on the IEA’s forecast that low-emission electricity sources like solar, wind, and nuclear will account for more than half of global power generation before 2030. Further, we explore the rising energy demand from data centers, shifting expectations for hydrogen, and the investments needed to keep clean energy growing at a pace that meets our climate targets.
Tim Gould is Chief Energy Economist at the International Energy Agency (IEA).
When he first appeared on Episode #148 – Energy and Emissions after COVID in May 2021, he was co-head of the World Energy Outlook series at the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA). He designed and directed the work together with the IEA’s Chief Energy Modeller and contributed to the Outlook as a principal author, and he also oversaw the Agency’s analysis of energy investment and finance, including the World Energy Investment series.
He returned for Episode #171 – Rejecting Russia in April 2022. He was still co-head of the World Energy Outlook when he and his colleague Christophe McGlade joined Chris for Episode #215 – IEA’s New Oil & Gas Outlook in January 2024. Parts of the Episode #148 and #215 conversations also feature in Episode #284 – Faster Than Forecast (2026). He came back for Episode #242 – IEA Outlook 2025 in January 2025, part of which also features in Episode #285 – Covering Demand Growth (2026), and for Episode #265 – IEA World Energy Outlook 2025 in December 2025, as a lead author of that year’s Outlook.
Tim joined the IEA in 2008, initially as a specialist on Russian and Caspian energy, before going across to join the World Energy Outlook team under the (then) Chief Economist, Fatih Birol, who is now the IEA’s Executive Director. Before IEA, he worked on European and Eurasian energy issues in Brussels and also spent ten years working in Eastern Europe, primarily in Ukraine. He studied at Oxford University and Johns Hopkins SAIS.
On Twitter: @tim_gould_
On the Web: https://www.iea.org
Recording date: November 14, 2024
Air date: January 29, 2025
Geek rating: 7