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[Episode #166] – IEA’s Climate Scenarios

As the energy transition continues to accelerate, it’s more important than ever that we update our models—both our empirical and mental models—of where we’re heading. Things that we used to take for granted, like oil and gas demand increasing every year, are no longer assured. And governments the world over are gradually tightening their restrictions on fossil fuel use and emissions, so it’s important to keep our data on climate policies and pledges current.

In this episode, we are joined by Christophe McGlade, Head of the Energy Supply Unit at IEA, to discuss the latest updates to the IEA’s Announced Pledges Scenario in light of the pledges announced at the COP26 conference in November 2021. We also revisit IEA’s other main scenarios, and review what the world needs to do to put us on a trajectory to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees. Other topics covered in this interview include an exploration into the gap between what emissions scenarios imply about stranded fossil fuel assets and how the oil and gas industry is actually proceeding with the blessing of governments; the role of the oil and gas industry in the energy transition; the role of negative emissions technologies in the IEA’s scenarios; and the IEA’s plan to make more of its data available for free.


Christophe McGlade is the Head of the Energy Supply Unit and leads the energy supply and climate analysis for the World Energy Outlook series. He was a lead author for the recent IEA special reports on Net Zero by 2050: A roadmap for the global energy sector; Sustainable Recoveries; and the oil and gas industry in energy transitions.

On Twitter: @TofMcGlade

On the Web: Christophe’s page at IEA

Recording date: January 27, 2022

Air date: February 15, 2022

Geek rating: 7