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[Episode #261] – The Case Against Climate Doom

Oct 22 2025

Mini Episode

Recent headlines may create the impression that the energy transition is slowing down, struggling against headwinds, and failing to make the requisite progress against our climate targets.

But the reality is that there is enormous progress being made against the climate change challenge, especially if you step back a bit from the daily news flow and consider the trends. There is plenty of evidence that we are in fact making a good deal of progress, and that the energy transition is accelerating, not slowing down. In fact, 2025 may be the year that global emissions peak and go into decline.

In his new book, The Case Against Climate Doom — An Economist's Guide to Climate Optimism, economist Michael Jakob reveals why the "we're too late" narrative isn't just wrong, but one that fossil fuel interests use to delay climate action. Building on his degrees in physics, economics, and international relations, Michael explores how climate change mitigation, adaptation technologies and policies are spreading across the world.

The evidence is striking: Solar costs have dropped 90% in 20 years, wind 80%, batteries 97%. Norway hit 97% EV market share without banning gas cars, simply by making electric vehicles irresistible. Climate litigation is winning unprecedented cases, with Swiss seniors successfully arguing that government inaction violates human rights. Over 5,000 climate policies now exist worldwide, up from under 100 in 2005.

In today's conversation, we explore five examples from each dimension the book covers: social progress, political change, and technological advances. From the collapse of carbon lock-in, to why even Texas became a green energy powerhouse, this interview offers clear evidence showing why the transition is continuing to accelerate, not stall.

Guest:

Michael Jakob is an independent researcher and consultant working under the label ‘Climate Transition Economics’. He holds a PhD in economics from the Technical University of Berlin and has obtained degrees in physics, economics, and international relations from universities in Munich, St. Gallen, and Geneva. His research interests include climate change mitigation in developing countries, the political economy of climate policy as well as the interlinkages between environmental policy and human well-being. Michael has advised governments, international organizations as well as NGOs and served as contributing author to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report.

On Bluesky: https://ct-economics.bsky.social/

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-jakob-3929215/

On the Web:  https://www.ct-economics.net/

 

Geek rating: 2

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[Episode #260] – China Energy Transition Review 2025

Oct 8 2025

Mini Episode

Over the past decade, China has transformed from a heavily coal-fired country to the undisputed global leader in the energy transition. The pace keeps accelerating: In April 2025 alone, China installed more solar than Australia has in its entire history. By 2030, as little as one-seventh of China's projected spare solar manufacturing capacity could electrify everyone without power in 88 low-income countries.

Yet, this progress has not been recognized by much of the West, which still fixates on headlines about "building three coal plants a week" while missing that China is getting far ahead of US decarbonization efforts. China's vast exports of energy transition solutions are rapidly decarbonizing other emerging economies, while the nation's share of global clean energy patents jumped from 5% in 2000 to 75% today. Chinese companies now spend ten times more on electricity R&D than US companies and match the combined energy R&D spending of the US and EU together. The innovation advantage has flipped.

To understand China's oversized role in the energy transition, Muyi Yang and Sam Butler-Sloss of Ember join us to break down their report China Energy Transition Review 2025. We'll review how China is routinely beating its own transition targets by three to six years. We'll hear how Chinese firms have announced over $200 billion in overseas clean tech manufacturing investments, surpassing the scale of US investment abroad under the Marshall Plan. Solar, batteries, and EVs are growing three times faster than China's overall economy, hitting nearly 10% of GDP. Chinese solar exports to Namibia, Cambodia, and similar countries now exceed the entire centralized power generation capacity of those countries.

The result: what took decades with old energy is happening in years with solar. China's enormous commitment to the energy transition is a strategic path to economic growth and economic and political power, and it heralds the end of fossil fuel's dominance of the global energy system by 2030.

Guest #1:

Dr. Muyi Yang is Senior Policy Analyst at Ember, a global energy and climate think tank. He also holds positions as a non-resident Senior Policy Fellow at Asia Society Australia. Additionally, he is Adjunct Fellow at the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology Sydney and serves as the Secretary of the International Society for Energy Transition Studies.

On Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/muyi-yang-aa185389/?originalSubdomain=au

On X: @ymymilan

Guest #2:

Sam Butler-Sloss is a research manager at Ember where he analyses the global energy transition. He has published numerous articles and reports examining the rapid rise of cleantech and its implications. Prior to Ember, Sam worked at the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) and the Carbon Tracker Initiative.

On LinkedIn

On X

On Bluesky

On Substack

Geek rating: 3

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[Episode #259] – 10th Anniversary: New Marching Orders

Sep 24 2025

Mini Episode

For our 10th anniversary, we reflect on our work so far, and consider what the next ten years might require. Whereas we spent the past decade focusing on techno-economic subjects, like explaining climate science and climate policy, and showing that energy transition technologies are practical and affordable, the next decade is likely to be far more political. We no longer need to justify the concept of the energy transition. Our job now is scaling up solutions and overcoming the resistance to them.

To help us explore this pivot, we welcome back Kingsmill Bond from Episode #152, along with his frequent co-author Daan Walter. Both are with energy transition think-tank Ember, where along with Sam Butler-Sloss they've published reports that clearly articulate what many observers are missing: an "electrotech revolution" reshaping geopolitics. They reveal staggering data: 70-80% of car sales in developing economies like Nepal and Ethiopia are already electric, while China's fossil fuel demand dropped 1% for the first time ever. Nearly every nation has 10-1000x more renewable potential than needed for its energy independence. Developing economies are seizing that opportunity while developed economies sabotage their own electrification by resisting change and taxing electricity at three times the rate of gas.

So join us to celebrate our 10th anniversary! And get ready for an even faster decade of the energy transition as countries choose to lead in the electrotech revolution, or get left behind.

Guest #1:

Daan Walter is a Principal at Ember, leading strategy research on the future of energy. His work builds on his previous role at RMI, where he focused on cleantech growth, battery development, and related mineral demand. Prior to that, at McKinsey, he co-founded and led the Sustainability Analytics team, advising governments and Fortune 500 companies on the energy transition. (linkedin)

On Twitter: @DaanWalt3r

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/daan-walter-292980a7/

On the Web: https://ember-energy.org/people/daan-walter/

Guest #2:

Kingsmill Bond is the Energy Strategist for Carbon Tracker, a London-based clean energy think tank. He believes that the energy transition is the most important driver of financial markets and geopolitics in the modern era. Over a 25 year career as an equity analyst and strategist at institutions such as Deutsche Bank, Sberbank and Citibank, he has researched emerging markets, the shale revolution and the impact of US energy independence. At Carbon Tracker, he has written about the impact of the energy transition on financial markets, domestic politics and geopolitics, and authored a series of reports on the myths of the energy transition, looking at the many arguments made by incumbents to deny the reality of change.

On Twitter: @KingsmillBond

On the Web:  Kingsmill’s page at Carbon Tracker

Geek rating: 4

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[Episode #242] – IEA Outlook 2025

Jan 29 2025

Mini Episode

What important trends are shaping the energy transition today? And what is the outlook for oil and gas demand?

In this conversation, Tim Gould of the International Energy Agency (IEA) returns to discuss key insights from the agency’s flagship annual report, the World Energy Outlook 2024. We consider the enormous implications of IEA’s view that global demand for all fossil fuels will peak and begin a slow decline within the next five years. To explore this, we take a closer look at the state of the oil and gas industry, comparing its expectations to what climate science and energy system modeling tell us about the future of fossil fuels. We also consider how the energy transition could reduce overall demand for fossil fuels, creating excess supply imbalances that reshape global markets and trade geopolitics.

Our discussion also touches on the IEA’s forecast that low-emission electricity sources like solar, wind, and nuclear will account for more than half of global power generation before 2030. Further, we explore the rising energy demand from data centers, shifting expectations for hydrogen, and the investments needed to keep clean energy growing at a pace that meets our climate targets.

Guest:

Tim Gould is co-head of the World Energy Outlook series at the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA). He designs and directs the work together with the IEA’s Chief Energy Modeller and contributes to the Outlook as a principal author. He also oversees the Agency’s analysis of energy investment and finance, including the World Energy Investment series. Tim has been at the IEA since 2008, and joined initially as a specialist on Russian and Caspian energy before going across to join the World Energy Outlook team under the (then) Chief Economist, Fatih Birol, who is now the IEA’s Executive Director. Before IEA, he worked on European and Eurasian energy issues in Brussels and also spent ten years working in Eastern Europe, primarily in Ukraine. He studied at Oxford University and Johns Hopkins SAIS.

On Twitter: @tim_gould_

On the Web:  http://www.iea.org

Geek rating: 7

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[Episode #232] – Smart Meters and Appliances

Sep 4 2024

Mini Episode

Two decades ago, there was a surge of interest to make appliances, buildings, and utility meters smarter. Startups emerged to explore ways to monitor and manage electricity usage and optimize grid power, aiming to better align with the increasing supply of variable renewable energy.

At the same time, utilities began rolling out millions of so-called smart meters, promising to reduce costs for ratepayers. This advanced meter infrastructure would provide the information needed to use less electricity during peak times - shifting consumption to periods when renewable generation was abundant and prices were low.

However, the promise of a "smart" future didn't exactly happen as expected, with many efforts fizzling out.

Now, with the advent of new technologies, making buildings and appliances smarter and more grid-interactive seems more achievable than ever. This shift can lower costs for everyone and make the grid more responsive to variable sources of renewable energy.

But to achieve this goal, we'll need utility reform, proactive regulators, and leadership at the federal level. In this two-hour episode, we discuss the challenges that have held back the “smart home” vision with Mission:data founder Michael Murray. Michael has been on the front lines of this effort for 20 years, and has some clear ideas about what it will take to overcome the hurdles and turn this vision into a reality.

Guest:

Michael Murray is Mission:data’s co-founder and President since 2013. In 2004, he co-founded Lucid, an energy management software company serving commercial building owners. He made the product called “Building Dashboard,” one of the first real-time displays of energy usage on the web. He has twenty years of experience with building automation, energy management, metering and public utility regulation.

On Twitter: @mission_data

On the Web: Mission:data Coalition

Geek rating: 9

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[Episode #231] – Five Times Faster

Aug 21 2024

Mini Episode

Why have our climate policies failed to significantly reduce carbon emissions? What new strategies could help us decarbonize the global energy system five times faster — as is needed to avoid the worst climate scenarios?

Our guest in this episode believes he has some answers to these questions.

Simon Sharpe has been personally involved in the crafting of climate policy in the UK for over a decade. He designed and led flagship international campaigns for climate policy in 2020-2021, when the UK hosted COP26, and has held key roles in the UK Government, including as head of a private office to a minister of energy and climate change. His diplomatic experience includes postings in China and India. Currently, he is Director of Economics for the Climate Champions Team and a Senior Fellow at the World Resources Institute. Simon has published influential academic papers and created groundbreaking international initiatives in climate change risk assessment, economics, policy, and diplomacy.

In his 2023 book, Five Times Faster—Rethinking the Science, Economics, and Diplomacy of Climate Change, Simon lays out why the institutions of science, economics, and climate diplomacy that should be helping us are holding us back. Chapter by chapter, he forensically analyzes why so many of our climate policies have failed to produce the desired results, demonstrating how science is pulling its punches, diplomacy is picking the wrong battles, and economics is fighting for the wrong side. More importantly, he outlines how to develop alternative policies that could actually work.

Guest:

Simon Sharpe is Director of Economics for the Climate Champions Team and a Senior Fellow at the World Resources Institute. He designed and led flagship international campaigns of the UK’s Presidency of the UN climate change talks (COP26) in 2020-2021; worked as the head of private office to a minister of energy and climate change in the UK Government; and has served on diplomatic postings in China and India. He has published influential academic papers and created groundbreaking international initiatives in climate change risk assessment, economics, policy and diplomacy.

On the Web: fivetimesfaster.org

Geek rating: 6

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[Episode #230] – EV Charging Blues

Aug 7 2024

Mini Episode

The transition from oil-burning vehicles to electric vehicles (EVs) has hit a few speed bumps over the past year, sparking widespread media coverage, but not much insight. A confusing tangle of narratives has emerged: Are EV sales surging or stalling? What does it mean for Ford and GM to adopt Tesla’s charger connector when Elon Musk just laid off his entire charging network team? And if the new federal NEVI program is expanding public fast-charger networks, why are so many of those chargers broken?

In this comprehensive 2.5-hour episode, we untangle these narratives and bring some clarity to this ever-evolving picture.

Joining us for this conversation is Raj Diwan, an expert with many years of experience in trying to actually build and operate networks of high-speed public chargers. We take an exhaustive tour through the state of the EV charging business, including the costs and challenges of deploying and operating chargers; the changing standards for EV charging cable connectors; the implications of Elon Musk’s recent decisions about Tesla’s charging network; the various business model challenges for EV charging network operators; the challenges that utilities have in providing power to the chargers; the varying costs of charging for EV drivers; the state of the federal NEVI grant funding program; and the state of the EV market.

Guest:

Rajiv (Raj) Diwan has been a car guy since birth. As founder of the transportation advisory firm, EV Pathway, Raj works to ensure a seamless shift to EVs by addressing the needs of mass-market customers (not just early-adopters). Public fast charging is critical to that transition, and his work addresses key gaps in DCFC reliability, accessibility, and affordability.

As an E-Mobility and Utilities professional with over 18 years of experience, Raj is an SME on best practices across public charging customer experience, reliability, and asset management.

Raj is focused on helping clients navigate the complexities of deploying public fast charging by either welcoming a 3rd party CPO to own and operate on a site hosts property, or helping new players become an owner/operator themselves.

On LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/rajiv-diwan-evpathway

On the Web:  www.evpathway.com

Geek rating: 7

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[Episode #225] – Demand Side Solutions

May 29 2024

Mini Episode

Energy transition is often depicted as a choice between different supply-side technologies such as wind or solar versus oil and coal. However, the demand side of the energy transition — focusing on efficiency improvements to buildings, adopting walking and biking over driving, and electrifying consumer appliances — deserves just as much attention.

Would you believe that widespread adoption of demand-side measures like these could cut the UK’s energy demand in half without sacrificing services or quality of life? That’s one of the key insights our guest in this episode has to share.

Nick Eyre is one of the most well-informed experts on the demand side of the energy transition. He is Professor of Energy and Climate Policy, and Senior Research Fellow in Energy, at the Environmental Change Institute at Oxford University in England. He serves as the Director of the Centre for Research into Energy Demand Solutions, which is UK Research and Innovation’s (UKRI's) primary investment in energy use research. He is also a Co-Director of the Oxford Martin Programme on Integrating Renewable Energy, which is undertaking research on the combined, technical, economic, social and policy issues in moving to electricity systems with very high levels of variable renewables.

For the past five years, Nick has led a comprehensive project involving hundreds of researchers to review nearly 500 publications on the demand side of energy. This project concluded at the end of 2023, and he joins us today to share its key insights. He’ll help us understand the most important demand-side decarbonization strategies in 2024, and what we can do to accelerate their deployment. It’s a really comprehensive, yet very accessible (and not too geeky) discussion that offers at least a few practical insights that all of our listeners could readily consider applying in their own lives.

Guest:

Nick Eyre is Professor of Energy and Climate Policy, and Senior Research Fellow in Energy, at the Environmental Change Institute. He is Director of the Centre for Research into Energy Demand Solutions, which is UKRI’s main investment into research on energy use. He is also a Co-Director of the Oxford Martin Programme on Integrating Renewable Energy, which is undertaking research on the combined, technical, economic, social and policy issues in moving to electricity systems with very high levels of variable renewables.

Professor Eyre acts as scientific advisor on climate change to Oxford City Council. He is interested in the role of public policy in reducing energy demand and carbon emissions, and the transition to zero carbon energy systems. This includes the integration of renewable energy into energy systems, energy market reform, policy instruments for energy efficiency and the role of local government and communities.

Professor Eyre was one of the UK’s first researchers on mitigation of carbon emissions, and was co-author of a presentation to the Cabinet on this issue in 1989. In 1997, he wrote the first published study on how the Government’s 20% carbon emission reduction target might be delivered. He has advised successive governments and a wide range of Parliamentary inquiries. He managed a large European Commission programme on the external costs of energy and was lead author of the report used as the basis for the UK Government’s first estimate of the social cost of carbon. From 1999 to 2007 he was Head of Policy and then Directory of Strategy at the Energy Saving Trust.

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nick-eyre-96951a33

On the Web:  Nick’s faculty page at Oxford

Geek rating: 3

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[Episode #220] – Climate Capitalism

Mar 20 2024

Mini Episode

What is the recipe for an energy transition at the scale needed to limit global warming below the crucial 2°C threshold?

Bloomberg journalist Akshat Rathi has identified some of the key ingredients, based on his interviews with ten of the world’s most influential personalities working on climate solutions. In his new book, Climate Capitalism, Akshat recounts their stories and makes a case for how capitalism and the dynamism of the private sector are essential components of the global race to zero emissions.

We take a deep dive into Rathi’s work, confronting the criticisms of capitalism, examining how its varied implementations around the world produce different results, and exploring potential reforms for improvement. We conclude by weaving in some ideas drawn from topics discussed previously on the show, including “command capitalism,” how the energy transition requires long-term planning with a system thinking perspective, and the tension between forces driving for international cooperation versus competition.

It's a thoughtful look at the state of the global energy transition from someone with a front-row seat to the investment flows around the world, and we know you’ll find it an illuminating and inspiring discussion.

Guest:

Akshat Rathi is a senior climate reporter for Bloomberg News and is the host of Zero, a weekly climate podcast for Bloomberg Green.

He has a PhD in chemistry from the University of Oxford, and a BTech in chemical engineering from the Institute of Chemical Technology in Mumbai. He has written for Quartz and The Economist, and his work has been cited in global publications including New York Times, Washington Post, New Yorker, The Guardian, Wall Street Journal and Financial Times.

On Twitter: @AkshatRathi

On LinkedIn: AkshatRathi

On the Web:  https://akshatrathi.com/

Geek rating: 4

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[Episode #218] – Accelerating Decarbonization in the US

Feb 21 2024

Mini Episode

How can we accelerate the decarbonization of the entire US economy?

In this episode, we discuss the energy-related decarbonization strategies outlined in a new report from the National Academies, titled “Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States: Technology, Policy, and Societal Dimensions,” with Dr. Sue Tierney, a Senior Advisor at Analysis Group and a renowned expert in energy and environmental economics, regulation, and policy. Dr. Tierney played a key role in the Committee on Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States, which developed and coordinated this landmark study. We explore how decarbonizing the US requires much more than simply substituting renewables for fossil fuels in power generation and EVs for oil-burning cars. A broad array of solutions must be deployed, but they face numerous barriers and risks to implementation.

Trillions of dollars have been allocated for these energy and technology solutions through three significant laws passed in 2022: the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and the Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors (CHIPS) Act. However, effectively mobilizing these funds requires willing collaboration from a diverse group of local, municipal, and state actors, including elected officials, regulators, agency staffers, as well as community and business leaders.

Listen in to learn why delivering a successful energy transition, along with a host of other benefits such as justice, equity, health, jobs, and sustainability writ large, necessitates understanding the barriers to implementation and identifying the types of policies and programs needed to keep the US on track to achieving net zero.

Guest:

Dr. Sue Tierney is a Senior Advisor at Analysis Group and is an expert on energy and environmental economics, regulation, and policy, particularly in the electric and gas industries.  Previously, she was the Assistant Secretary for Policy at the U.S. Department of Energy, and in Massachusetts, she was the Secretary of Environmental Affairs, Commissioner at the Department of Public Utilities, and head of the state’s Energy Facilities Siting Council. She currently chairs the Board of Resources for the Future and the National Academies’ Board on Energy and Environmental Systems, and serves on the boards of other NGOs and foundations.  She was a member of the National Academies’ Committee on Accelerating Decarbonization in the U.S. and the Committee on the Future of Electric Power. Her Ph.D. is in regional planning from Cornell University

On Twitter: @analysisgroup

On the Web:  Analysis Group

Geek rating: 6

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