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[Episode #286] – A Moving Target

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Doubters of the transition have always been quick to share doom scenarios about grids losing stability once wind and solar supplied a large share of their power. In the Energy Transition Show's early episodes, our host Chris noted how defenders of the status quo "have claimed for decades that the grid can't support more than 3 percent or 5 percent or 20 percent, it's a moving target, of variable renewables without risking blackouts…"

Years later, reality leaves transition skeptics less and less room to maneuver. So is there really an upper limit on how much wind and solar a grid can handle? In 2025, renewables provided more than 77% of South Australia's electricity generation, nearly half of it from wind. And for half an hour in April 2026, 98.8% of the power on Britain's transmission grid came from zero-carbon sources, by NESO's own measure.

Certainly along the way there have been blackouts blamed on renewables, such as 2016 in South Australia, or Spain and Portugal in 2025. If you only followed the headlines, you'd think the doubters had been right all along.

But grid engineers keep learning how to adapt, and the target keeps moving. In this episode of our documentary series, we start with conversations from the show's past and how they connect to recent ones about grid stability, including what the official investigation into Spain's blackout actually found, and how Britain gives its grid inertia without burning fuel.

Guest #1:

Paul Denholm is a senior research fellow—the highest technical position at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), formerly the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)—leading research in grid applications for energy storage and solar energy.

When he first appeared on Episode #58 – Solar with Storage in December 2017, Paul was a principal analyst at NREL. Part of that conversation also features in Episode #286 – A Moving Target (2026). He returned for Episode #188 – Getting to a 100% Clean Grid in December 2022, as a senior researcher at NREL.

He pioneered a variety of research methods for understanding the technical, economic, and environmental benefits and impacts of the large scale deployment of renewable electricity generation. He has delivered over 100 invited presentations to agencies including the National Science Foundation, the World Bank, and the International Energy Agency. He has co-authored over 100 articles related to renewable energy integration. While his official title at the time of his first appearance was principal analyst, he is still an engineer at heart and in his free time he likes to build contraptions of dubious functionality, like a concentrating solar marshmallow cooker.

On the Web: Paul Denholm’s page at NLR

Guest #2:

Julian Leslie is Director of Strategic Energy Planning and Chief Engineer at the UK’s National Energy System Operator (NESO).

When he first appeared on Episode #174 – Decarbonizing Britain’s Grid in June 2022, Julian was Head of Networks and Chief Engineer at National Grid ESO. By the time he returned for Episode #245 – Evolving the UK Energy System Part 3 in March 2025, he was in his current role at NESO. Parts of both conversations also feature in Episode #286 – A Moving Target (2026).

Julian is a chartered engineer with three decades of transmission system operation, planning and investment experience. Julian’s role is to prepare Great Britain’s electricity network for net zero operation, defining future network needs so that market and network owners can invest in the right technology solutions at the right time. Julian is also developing whole energy system plans on a national and regional basis.

On Twitter: @JulianLeslie6

On the Web: Julian’s profile at NESO

Guest #3:

Mackay Miller is a Partner at ERM, where he leads the firm’s work at the nexus of energy and corporate strategy, with a focus on data centers, utilities, and financial sector clients.

When he first appeared on Episode #2 – Limits on the Grid – Part 1 in September 2015, he was a senior analyst at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (now the National Laboratory of the Rockies), speaking in a personal capacity. Part of that conversation also features in Episode #286 – A Moving Target (2026). He returned for Episode #63 – Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in February 2018.

After NREL, he later served as Principal Analyst in the US Strategy division of National Grid.

On Twitter: @mackaymiller

Guest #4:

When Dr. Jenny Riesz appeared on Episode #39 – Transition in Australia in March 2017, she was a Principal in the Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO’s) Future Power System Security program, working on adapting AEMO’s processes and functions to ensure ongoing security and reliability as the power system transforms over the coming decades. Part of that conversation also features in Episode #286 – A Moving Target (2026).

Before joining AEMO, she was a research associate at the University of New South Wales, modelling energy markets for 100% renewable power systems, and a specialist in modelling renewables and climate policy at ROAM Consulting.

On Twitter: @jennyriesz

On the Web: https://jenny.riesz.com.au/

Guest #5:

Ivor Frischknecht is Managing Partner at Sosteneo. He is a widely acknowledged expert and innovator in the energy industry.

When he appeared on Episode #71 – Australia at the Cutting Edge in June 2018, Ivor was CEO of the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA), where he led its efforts to accelerate the commercialization and integration of renewable energy into Australia’s energy system, as well as playing a leading role in transforming the electricity sector. Part of that conversation also features in Episode #286 – A Moving Target (2026).

Before joining ARENA, Ivor was responsible for clean tech investments at venture capital firm Starfish Ventures, which managed $400 million primarily on behalf of Australian pension funds, and served as CEO and investor in cleantech in Silicon Valley, California.

On Twitter (ARENA): @arena_aus

On the Web: Ivor Frischknecht’s LinkedIn profile

Guest #6:

Dr. Rick Wallace Kenyon is Chief Product Officer at encoord.

When he appeared on Episode #153 – Grid-forming Inverters in August 2021, he was a PhD candidate at the University of Colorado Boulder focusing on power system dynamics under conditions of high penetrations of renewable, inverter-based resources, and he has since completed his PhD there. His primary interests were the frequency stability of these systems and the implications of inverter control techniques at various penetrations. Throughout his studies he maintained a strong affiliation with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (now the National Laboratory of the Rockies), through which he developed a highly detailed electromagnetic transient model of the Maui power system for these near-future operating conditions. Part of that conversation also features in Episode #286 – A Moving Target (2026).

On the Web: Wallace Kenyon’s page at encoord

Recording date: October 25, 2026

Air date: October 28, 2026

Geek rating: 5