Over the summer, the IEA projected that carbon emissions from the world's power sector are on track for a new record in 2026. Electricity demand is expected to grow 20% faster than it did a year ago, and this year's gas shock has pushed some countries to use more coal.
But we're fresh off a new milestone for the energy transition. Last year, wind and solar grew enough to cover virtually all of the world's new electricity demand and fossil power fell, so emissions from power plants didn't rise.
So was last year a peak we can count on, or simply a pause? Over the Energy Transition Show's history, we've seen carbon emissions stall out before. In 2017, global emissions had barely grown for three years, and some thought that was it. But then they started to rise again.
How confident can we be that fossil power emissions are truly close to their peak? In this second episode of our documentary series, we follow that question through Chris Nelder's conversations with the analysts who have been tracking it, from 2017 to today. We'll hear the signs of a lasting decline versus a temporary dip, why emerging markets can stop fossil power from growing even if the coal plants they already have don't shut down, and why so much of the answer depends on what China does next.
Featured in this episode, in the order we hear their conversations:
- Zeke Hausfather, climate scientist and energy systems analyst at Berkeley Earth, on Episode #40 (2017)
- Lauri Myllyvirta, Lead Analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, on Episode #138 (2021) and Episode #271 (2026)
- Kingsmill Bond, Energy Strategist at Carbon Tracker, on Episode #152 (2021)
- Tim Gould, co-head of the World Energy Outlook at the International Energy Agency, on Episode #242 (2025)
- Muyi Yang, Senior Energy Analyst for Asia at Ember, on Episode #260 (2025)
- Sam Butler-Sloss, Research Manager at Ember, on Episode #260 (2025)
- Nic Fulghum, Senior Data Analyst at Ember, on Episode #274 (2026)
- Aditya Lolla, Interim Managing Director of Ember, on Episode #280 (2026)
Zeke Hausfather is a Research Scientist at Berkeley Earth and a climate science contributor to Carbon Brief. He is a climate scientist whose research focuses on observational temperature records, climate models, carbon removal, and mitigation technologies.
When he first appeared on Episode #40 – Climate Science Part 2 – Taking Planetary Temperatures in April 2017, Zeke was a climate scientist and energy systems analyst at Berkeley Earth. Part of that conversation also features in Episode #285 – Covering Demand Growth (2026). He returned for Episode #194 – Materials Requirements of the Transition in March 2023, as one of the authors of the paper the episode discussed; by then he was also the Climate Lead at Stripe.
He was previously the senior climate analyst at Project Drawdown, the director of climate and energy at the Breakthrough Institute, the lead data scientist at Essess, the chief scientist at C3.ai, and the cofounder and chief scientist of Efficiency 2.0. He has masters degrees in environmental science from Yale University and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and a PhD in climate science from the University of California, Berkeley.
On Mastodon: @hausfath@fediscience.org
On Twitter: @hausfath
On the Web:
Lauri Myllyvirta is Lead Analyst and Co-founder of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).
When he first appeared on Episode #138 – Transition in China in January 2021, Lauri was the lead analyst at CREA. He was still CREA’s lead analyst when he returned for Episode #271 – China Update 2026 in March 2026. Parts of both conversations also feature in Episode #285 – Covering Demand Growth (2026).
By the time of his first appearance, Lauri had over 10 years’ experience as an air pollution and climate expert. He has led numerous research projects on air pollution, assessing air quality and health impacts of energy policies, including more than a dozen modeling studies of the air quality and health impacts of coal-fired power plants. This research has been published and utilized in numerous countries in East Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, Europe, Turkey, South Africa and others. Lauri has also contributed to numerous publications around energy solutions and air pollution and is asked frequently to attend seminars and conferences as an expert speaker. He served as a member of the Technical Working Group on regulating emissions from large combustion plants in the EU and, at the time of his first appearance, served as a member of the expert panel on regulating SO2 emissions in South Africa.
On Bluesky: @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social
On Twitter: @laurimyllyvirta
On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lauri-myllyvirta-3164703b/
On the Web: Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) | Lauri’s page at CarbonBrief
Kingsmill Bond, CFA is a Director and energy strategist at Ember. He has worked as a financial market analyst and strategist for over 30 years, including for Deutsche Bank and Citibank in London, Hong Kong and Moscow.
When he first appeared on Episode #108 – Will Energy Transition Be Rapid or Gradual? in November 2019, Kingsmill was Energy Strategist at Carbon Tracker, the London-based clean energy think tank. Part of that conversation also features in Episode #151 – Best of ETS Vol. 1 (2021) and Episode #284 – Faster Than Forecast (2026). He was still at Carbon Tracker when he returned for Episode #152 – No Limits in August 2021, and part of that conversation also features in Episode #285 – Covering Demand Growth (2026). By the time he came back with his frequent co-author Daan Walter for Episode #259 – 10th Anniversary: New Marching Orders in September 2025, he had joined Ember.
He believes that the electrotech revolution is the most important driver of financial markets and geopolitics in the modern era. He joined Ember from RMI in 2025 to write analysis on the impact of the energy transition on financial markets, with a focus on the exponential growth of electrotech and the disruption to the fossil fuel sector. Prior to RMI, Kingsmill worked at Carbon Tracker.
On Twitter: @KingsmillBond
On the Web: Kingsmill’s page at Ember
Tim Gould is Chief Energy Economist at the International Energy Agency (IEA).
When he first appeared on Episode #148 – Energy and Emissions after COVID in May 2021, he was co-head of the World Energy Outlook series at the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA). He designed and directed the work together with the IEA’s Chief Energy Modeller and contributed to the Outlook as a principal author, and he also oversaw the Agency’s analysis of energy investment and finance, including the World Energy Investment series.
He returned for Episode #171 – Rejecting Russia in April 2022. He was still co-head of the World Energy Outlook when he and his colleague Christophe McGlade joined Chris for Episode #215 – IEA’s New Oil & Gas Outlook in January 2024. Parts of the Episode #148 and #215 conversations also feature in Episode #284 – Faster Than Forecast (2026). He came back for Episode #242 – IEA Outlook 2025 in January 2025, part of which also features in Episode #285 – Covering Demand Growth (2026), and for Episode #265 – IEA World Energy Outlook 2025 in December 2025, as a lead author of that year’s Outlook.
Tim joined the IEA in 2008, initially as a specialist on Russian and Caspian energy, before going across to join the World Energy Outlook team under the (then) Chief Economist, Fatih Birol, who is now the IEA’s Executive Director. Before IEA, he worked on European and Eurasian energy issues in Brussels and also spent ten years working in Eastern Europe, primarily in Ukraine. He studied at Oxford University and Johns Hopkins SAIS.
On Twitter: @tim_gould_
On the Web: https://www.iea.org
Dr. Muyi Yang is Senior Energy Analyst, Asia at Ember, a global energy and climate think tank. He also holds positions as a non-resident Senior Policy Fellow at Asia Society Australia. Additionally, he is Adjunct Fellow at the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology Sydney and serves as the Secretary of the International Society for Energy Transition Studies.
When he appeared on Episode #260 – China Energy Transition Review 2025 with his Ember colleague Sam Butler-Sloss in October 2025, Muyi was with Ember. Part of that conversation also features in Episode #285 – Covering Demand Growth (2026).
On Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/muyi-yang-aa185389/?originalSubdomain=au
On X: @ymymilan
Sam Butler-Sloss is a research manager at Ember where he analyses the global energy transition.
He was with Ember when he appeared on Episode #260 – China Energy Transition Review 2025 with his colleague Muyi Yang in October 2025. Part of that conversation also features in Episode #285 – Covering Demand Growth (2026).
He has published numerous articles and reports examining the rapid rise of cleantech and its implications. Prior to Ember, Sam worked at the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) and the Carbon Tracker Initiative.
On LinkedIn
On X
On Bluesky
On Substack
Nicolas Fulghum is a Senior Data Analyst at the global energy think tank Ember, and one of the lead authors of Ember’s flagship report – the Global Electricity Review.
When he first appeared on Episode #254 – Global Electricity Review 2025 in July 2025, Nicolas was a Senior Energy and Climate Data Analyst at Ember and one of the lead authors of that year’s Global Electricity Review. That conversation was re-released as Episode #266 – Global Electricity Review 2025 (Lagniappe edition) in December 2025, and part of it also features in Episode #284 – Faster Than Forecast (2026). He returned in the same role, as one of the report’s lead authors, for Episode #274 – Global Electricity Review 2026 in April 2026, and part of that conversation also features in Episode #285 – Covering Demand Growth (2026).
On Bluesky: @nicolasfulghum.bsky.social
On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicolas-fulghum/
On Twitter: @nicolasfulghum
Aditya Lolla is Deputy Chief Executive Officer at Ember, the global energy think tank, where he leads Ember’s work in Asia.
When he appeared on Episode #280 – Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 in July 2026, Aditya was Interim Managing Director and Asia Programme Director for Ember. For the previous nine months, he had led the organisation while continuing to shape Ember’s work on Asia. Part of that conversation also features in Episode #285 – Covering Demand Growth (2026).
He was previously responsible for developing Ember’s strategy and workstreams in Asia, building Ember’s data-led research portfolio on the region and leveraging it to support governments across the region in accelerating the clean energy transition. His work focuses on how clean electricity, electrification and energy security are reshaping energy systems globally.
Earlier in his career, he managed large renewable power projects that covered about 50,000 homes in India and led on a World Bank funded project to develop new bioenergy technologies. He holds a Master of Public Policy from the University of Oxford and an MSc in Sustainable Energy Systems from the University of Edinburgh.
On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adityalolla
On the Web: https://ember-energy.org/people/aditya-lolla/
Recording date: October 8, 2026
Air date: October 14, 2026
Geek rating: 5