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[Episode #272] – Global Energy Crisis 2026

Mar 25 2026

Full Episode

The attacks on Iran by US and Israel have touched off a regional conflict that has resulted in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil and LNG transits, and is doing severe, ongoing damage to oil and gas infrastructure throughout the Persian Gulf. We are now in a new global energy crisis.

IEA coordinated the largest release ever of oil from strategic reserves to calm the oil market, but traders shrugged it off and oil prices kept climbing, because a physical disruption at this scale is totally unprecedented. Even so, veteran oil traders and journalists have warned that the world is still not recognizing the depth of the actual peril it's in. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol called this crisis "the greatest global energy security threat in history" and said, "I believe the world has not yet well understood the depth of the energy security challenge we are facing." IEA also admonished governments to take steps to conserve fuel, including urging their citizens to drive more slowly, work from home, take public transport and car sharing, avoid air travel, and switch to electric cooking. The last time IEA called for such wide-ranging demand reduction was in the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo.

The consequences are already cascading well beyond oil: Fertilizer prices have surged 25 to 40 percent, and a similar increase in the price of diesel will flow through to essentially everything, causing "fossilflation." In response, governments across Asia have begun curbing consumption: Bangladesh is shutting universities early to save power, Thailand and Vietnam are pushing civil servants to work from home, and Myanmar has imposed fuel rationing. And that's just the beginning.

To help us understand this rapidly-worsening reality, we are joined by Rory Johnston, one of the most widely cited independent oil market analysts, founder of the Commodity Context newsletter, and host of the Oil Ground Up podcast. Johnston, who typically avoids alarmist price calls, says $200 a barrel minimum is now on the table. We discuss why the world's emergency supply tools aren't working, where oil prices could go from here, and why this crisis has thrown the world into uncharted territory.

It could take the world years to recover from this…but in that interim, it's likely to accelerate the energy transition.

To help everyone cut through the fog of war and disinformation, and understand what is happening and how it will affect them, we are publishing this episode without a paywall. So please share it widely.

Guest:

Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, host of the Oil Ground Up podcast, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines.

He is a leading voice on oil market analysis, advising institutional investors, global policy makers, and corporate decision makers. His views are regularly quoted in major international media including the Financial Times, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, Reuters, BNN Bloomberg, CBC, and Financial Post, and he frequently appears on numerous market and industry podcasts (e.g., Bloomberg’s Odd Lots, Hidden Forces, etc.).

Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank where he set the bank’s energy and metals price forecasts, advised the bank’s executives and clients, and sat on the bank’s senior credit committee for commodity-exposed sectors.

On the Web:  Commodity Context

Podcast: Oil Ground Up podcast

On Twitter: @Rory_Johnston

On Bluesky: @roryjohnston.bsky.social

On LinkedIn: Rory Johnston

Geek rating: 8

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[Episode #250] – Russia Revisited

May 21 2025

Mini Episode

Three years after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the resulting Western sanctions, the country remains an oil and gas powerhouse. Despite falling from the world's second-largest to third-largest global oil producer and seeing its export rankings decline, Russia continues to delay the global energy transition as a major fossil fuel supplier and geopolitical force.

Western observers often struggle to understand Russia's future role in energy geopolitics and the intentions of President Vladimir Putin. To shed light on these questions, we welcome back Thane Gustafson, Professor of Government at Georgetown University and a leading authority on Russian political economy. He is the author of many books, notably Klimat: Russia in the Age of Climate Change, which we covered at length in Episodes #162 and #163.

In this nearly two-hour conversation, we explore his newest book, Perfect Storm—Russia's Failed Economic Opening, the Hurricane of War and Sanctions, and the Uncertain Future. Gustafson carefully explains how Russia's post-Soviet reopening to the West failed, how the Crimea occupation precipitated that failure, and where Western sanctions have succeeded or failed in containing Putin's ambitions. We examine Russia's oil and gas resources, infrastructure, business capacity, and the evolving relationships between Russian oligarchs and Western governments. The discussion reveals how Russia has evaded energy export sanctions, unpacks Putin's motivations, and assesses Russia's fading fortunes as global energy transition efforts accelerate.

Guest:

Thane Gustafson is a Professor of Government at Georgetown University. A widely recognized authority on Russian political economy and formerly a professor at Harvard University, he is the author of many books, notably Klimat: Russia in the Age of Climate Change; The Bridge: Natural Gas in a Redivided Europe and Wheel of Fortune: The Battle for Oil and Power in Russia, as well as Russia 2010 and What it Means for the World.

On the Web:

Thane’s personal website

Thane’s Georgetown Faculty Profile

Geek rating: 5

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[Episode #238] – Transition in Europe 2024

Dec 4 2024

Mini Episode

The outlook for energy transition in the US may feel bleak at the moment, but Europe continues to make significant progress. So if you’re ready for a little good news and thoughtful conversation about the energy transition in Europe, this one’s for you!

Our guest in this episode is Jan Rosenow, a veteran European energy observer, analyst, and policy advisor with extensive experience in energy regulation and market design. As Vice President of the Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP), he supports their European team with a focus on power market design, energy regulation, electrification, the gas transition and energy efficiency. Jan’s resumé includes roles at the World Economic Forum, the International Energy Agency, the European Commission, the European Parliament, the UK’s Office of Gas and Electricity Markets, and the British House of Commons, among many others. He is also an accomplished academic who has contributed extensively to hundreds of peer-reviewed articles, technical reports and opinion pieces on energy and sustainability.

In this episode, we explore where Europe’s energy policies are delivering results and where it is still falling short. We discuss the enormous need to improve building energy efficiency across the continent and how electrifying heating systems can help. Jan also explains why balancing electricity and gas prices is key to supporting the energy transition. And Chris offers a few thoughts on how the re-election of Donald Trump might impact energy transition in the years ahead.

Guest:

As the vice president of the Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP), Jan Rosenow partners with RAP’s CEO and senior leadership team on global strategy while providing programmatic direction to RAP’s European team with a focus on RAP’s initiatives in Europe on power market design, energy regulation, electrification, the gas transition and energy efficiency.

Rosenow serves in various board and expert committee roles with current and past roles including the World Economic Forum’s Senior Executive Group on Electrification, the International Energy Agency’s Executive Committee of the DSM TCP, the European Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (eceee) and GLOBSEC.

He has also advised the International Energy Agency, the European Commission, the European Parliament, the U.S. Agency for International Development, the German Corporation for International Cooperation (GIZ), government departments in a number of countries and the UK’s Office of Gas and Electricity Markets, as well as serving as an expert witness on several occasions to the European and British Parliaments. He is a former special advisor to the British House of Commons and the lead author of the International Energy Agency’s first global assessment of market-based instruments for energy efficiency.

An accomplished academic, Rosenow has contributed extensively to energy research. He is a research associate at Oxford, Cambridge, Sussex and FU Berlin. His scholarly work includes hundreds of peer-reviewed articles, technical reports and opinion pieces on energy and sustainability, which have been widely cited and used to shape policy discussions.

Rosenow is also a highly sought-after keynote speaker, regularly invited to present at national and international conferences. His speaking engagements include the United Nations, the International Energy Agency, the World Economic Forum, the European Parliament and more.  He is also the co-founder and co-host of the “Watt Matters” podcast, where he discusses energy and sustainability issues with leading experts.

In recognition of his impact in the energy sector, Rosenow has been named one of the top 100 players in the global climate space and among the top 25 energy influencers and top 15 sustainability influencers worldwide. Additionally, he is one of LinkedIn’s Top Green Voices. His commitment to advancing the UK’s energy future led to his election as a fellow of the Royal Society of Arts, and his contributions to the energy sector have earned him a fellowship at the Energy Institute.

Jan Rosenow earned several postgraduate qualifications, including a master’s degree in environmental policy and regulation from the London School of Economics and a doctorate from Oxford University.

On Twitter: @janrosenow

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/janrosenow

On the Web:
https://www.janrosenow.com/
https://www.raponline.org/experts/jan-rosenow/

Geek rating: 7

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[Episode #221] – Fossilflation

Apr 3 2024

Mini Episode

What causes inflation? And how is it connected to the energy transition?

Standard business press narratives often discuss inflation as if it has a mind of its own, seldom exploring its root causes. However, the connection between inflation and fossil fuel prices is both undeniable and significant. In fact, as you’ll hear at the end of today’s interview, endless interventions by the Fed may be an unavoidable consequence of the energy transition, from now until the project is complete.

So why aren’t we having a conversation about how Putin’s invasion of Ukraine ultimately led to your having to pay more for everything, as inflation was transmitted through from fossil fuels to everything else? Why did Congress give us the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022, instead of the Fossil Fuel Reduction Act? And what is the role of the Fed in the energy transition?

In this conversation, climate economist Gernot Wagner of the Columbia Business School rejoins us to help us understand the relationships between fossil fuels and inflation. We discuss why the Fed acts as it does, and we explore the Inflation Reduction Act in the US and the REPowerEU policy package in the EU, and the complex interconnections between monetary policy, industrial policy, and energy policy.

Guest:

Dr. Gernot Wagner is a climate economist at Columbia Business School. His research, teaching, and writing focus on climate risks and climate policy. Prior to joining Columbia as senior lecturer and serving as faculty director of the Climate Knowledge Initiative, Gernot taught at NYU, Harvard, and Columbia. He was the founding executive director of Harvard’s Solar Geoengineering Research Program. Prior to his time at Harvard, Gernot worked at the Environmental Defense Fund, the Boston Consulting Group, and the Financial Times. He has been a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations, a Senior Fellow at the Jain Family Institute, and is a CESifo Research Network Fellow, a Faculty Affiliate at the Columbia Center for Environmental Economics and Policy, a Member of the New York City Panel on Climate Change, a Coordinating Lead Author of the Austrian Panel on Climate Change, and he serves on the board of CarbonPlan.org.

On Mastodon: https://fediscience.org/@gwagner

On Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/gwagner.com

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gwagner/

On the Web:  https://gwagner.com/

Geek rating: 6

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[Episode #183] – Global Energy Crisis

Oct 12 2022

Mini Episode

What began as a “global energy crunch” one year ago, as we discussed with Will Kennedy in Episode #158, has now become a global energy crisis. It is putting energy consumers into severe financial distress and forcing governments around the world to intervene in all sorts of unprecedented ways, as we discussed in Episode #181, “Command Capitalism.” For much of Europe, it will be a very tough winter.

In this episode, Will returns to the show to explore the turmoil in energy and capital markets around the world, as well as how governments are responding to the crisis. We’ll also try to anticipate what will happen next.

As we sketch out, this crisis will ultimately accelerate the energy transition because that is truly the only way out of this mess. But it won’t be a straight path, it won’t be quick, and it won’t be easy.

This is a deep, dense, 90-minute-long conversation, so if you’re not a full subscriber yet, this would be a good time to join us! There are also more than 100 source references in the show notes for this episode, so be sure to log into our website using your subscriber credentials and check them out.

Geek rating: 8

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[Episode #181] – Command Capitalism

Sep 14 2022

Mini Episode

2022 has brought an unprecedented series of energy market interventions as leaders try to stave off domestic unrest in the face of numerous energy supply shocks. Some of the tumult we’ve seen in energy markets this year can be pinned on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and subsequent reactions by the West. But the war in Ukraine and associated sanctions really only exacerbated numerous fundamental trends that were already well established - trends that were positioning governments to take a stronger hand in their energy affairs. We are experiencing some very fundamental supply and demand problems in all sorts of energy fuels and other commodities around the world, and governments have little choice but to intervene wherever they can to maintain stability.

Where is this all taking us? Can capitalism survive the energy transition? Or are we headed into a new era?

Our guest in today’s episode has an answer: Kevin Book of ClearView Energy Partners believes we are seeing a new approach to economic management that he calls “command capitalism.” It may help us manage some of the challenges of the global energy crunch and the energy transition in a more direct way than we could through “free market” means… but it could also wrest control of our destinies away from regulators and energy ministries, with uncertain consequences.

Geek rating: 9

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[Episode #178] – How the Transition Will Unfold

Aug 3 2022

Mini Episode

The energy transition is an extremely complex undertaking, with every country, company, and individual taking action in various, largely uncoordinated ways, and often in pursuit of different targets. This has led some observers to warn that the transition will be messy, and its outcome uncertain. But is that really a problem, or just another challenge to be met and overcome?

In this episode, we speak with a researcher who has studied the history of technological innovations with a focus on the evolution of solar power. Dr. Gregory Nemet is a Professor at the University of Wisconsin where he teaches energy systems analysis, policy analysis, and international environmental policy. His research focuses on understanding the process of technological change and the ways in which public policy can affect it, and he offers some helpful insights on how the transition will unfold.

He suggests that we needn’t just plunge blindly into the uncertain future and hope everything works out, nor should we hesitate to proceed until we are confident that we have a workable plan. Rather, he believes we can have quite a lot of confidence about how to proceed, without knowing exactly what all the steps are, and without knowing exactly where we’ll end up. In any case, simply staying along our current course is not an option. We discuss the general discourse about the energy transition, where it is confused about the fundamental nature of this transition, and how it will unfold. Whether you’re a full-throated transitionista or a skeptic, this episode is guaranteed to be thought-provoking.

Geek rating: 3

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[Episode #171] – Rejecting Russia

Apr 27 2022

Mini Episode

Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine, policymakers and energy professionals alike have been challenged to figure out how Western countries could stop funding Russia’s war machine by halting imports of their fossil fuels. But, considering that Russia is the world’s largest exporter of oil, halting imports is simply not something that can be done quickly.

It is, however, something that must be done as quickly as possible. Numerous proposals and plans have been put forward to outline how various countries could displace the need for Russian energy exports. And generally, those proposals amount to accelerating the energy transition.

In this episode, we delve into some of those proposals and try to understand how much of a role they could play in displacing Russian fossil fuel exports, how long these measures will take, and how the entire global arrangement of trade and political alliances may have to be rearranged to accommodate them.

We tackle this huge topic in a two-hour conversation with three experts. To represent how Europe could proceed, we welcome back to the show Tim Gould of the International Energy Agency (IEA). To represent the UK perspective, we welcome back to the show Simon Evans of Carbon Brief. And to represent the US perspective, we welcome to the show Rachael Grace, Senior Director of Policy at Rewiring America.

Geek rating: 7

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[Episode #163] – Transition in Russia Part 2

Jan 5 2022

Mini Episode

This is the second part of our nearly four-hour interview with Professor Thane Gustafson on his new book, Klimat: Russia in the Age of Climate Change, about Russia’s attitude toward climate change, and how the nation will fare in the energy transition.

In part one of this interview, which we featured in Episode #162, we discussed Russia’s oil sector. In this second part, we talk about Russia’s other energy resources, including natural gas, coal, nuclear technology, and renewables, as well as its hopes to pivot to hydrogen production for export to Europe and how it might deal with the pending European carbon border adjustment mechanism. We’ll also discuss Russia’s perspective on climate change and its role in addressing it, and wrap up the conversation with the outlook for Russia’s fortunes and climate vulnerabilities as the global energy transition and climate action proceed.

Geek rating: 6

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[Episode #162] – Transition in Russia Part 1

Dec 22 2021

Mini Episode

This is the first part of our nearly four-hour interview with Professor Thane Gustafson on his new book, Klimat: Russia in the Age of Climate Change, about Russia’s attitude toward climate change, and how the nation will fare in the energy transition.

In this episode, we discuss Russia’s oil sector, including the state of its oil fields and equipment, the politics of oil internally, the outlook for global oil demand and the questions swirling around “peak oil demand,” and the country’s prospects for new oil production.

In the second part, which will run as Episode #163, we’ll talk about Russia’s other energy resources, including natural gas, coal, nuclear technology, and renewables, as well as its hopes of pivoting to hydrogen production for European export and how it might deal with the pending EU carbon border adjustment mechanism. We’ll also discuss Russia’s perspective on climate change and its role in climate policy, and wrap up this conversation with an assessment of Russia’s fortunes as the energy transition proceeds.

Geek rating: 6

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