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[Episode #265] – IEA World Energy Outlook 2025

Dec 17 2025

In November, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its annual World Energy Outlook (WEO) report. It was greeted with cheers from the fossil fuel industry and jeers from energy transitionistas, but there is much more to the report than either camp's narratives suggest. So Chris returned to IEA headquarters in Paris to discuss the WEO with lead author Tim Gould, as he has done for the past two years (Episode #215 and Episode #248), to get the story straight from the source.

What he found is that the revived Current Policies Scenario (CPS) shows what could happen if the energy transition is stopped in its tracks and fossil fuel demand continues to grow, as the Trump administration has stated it would like to see. While other scenarios explore continued progress in energy transition consistent with recent reports, where oil demand still peaks around 2030, and coal demand falls before the decade ends.

The report's updated global data tells another story. The oil industry spends $550 billion annually on upstream development, and 90% of that just keeps production flat. Meanwhile, 45% of new heavy freight trucks sold in China this year run on electricity or LNG, not diesel. And in the Middle East, solar is increasingly displacing oil for electricity generation and desalination of water. In Saudi Arabia alone, this could free up over a million barrels of daily consumption.

In fact, in this year's report, IEA declares that "the Age of Electricity is here." For the first time, more than half of all energy sector investment is flowing into electricity. Renewables grow "faster than any other major energy source in all scenarios."

The picture is clear: the energy transition is still going strong.

Guest:

Tim Gould is Chief Energy Economist at the International Energy Agency (IEA).

When he first appeared on Episode #148 – Energy and Emissions after COVID in May 2021, he was co-head of the World Energy Outlook series at the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA). He designed and directed the work together with the IEA’s Chief Energy Modeller and contributed to the Outlook as a principal author, and he also oversaw the Agency’s analysis of energy investment and finance, including the World Energy Investment series.

He returned for Episode #171 – Rejecting Russia in April 2022. He was still co-head of the World Energy Outlook when he and his colleague Christophe McGlade joined Chris for Episode #215 – IEA’s New Oil & Gas Outlook in January 2024. Parts of the Episode #148 and #215 conversations also feature in Episode #284 – Faster Than Forecast (2026). He came back for Episode #242 – IEA Outlook 2025 in January 2025, part of which also features in Episode #285 – Covering Demand Growth (2026), and for Episode #265 – IEA World Energy Outlook 2025 in December 2025, as a lead author of that year’s Outlook.

Tim joined the IEA in 2008, initially as a specialist on Russian and Caspian energy, before going across to join the World Energy Outlook team under the (then) Chief Economist, Fatih Birol, who is now the IEA’s Executive Director. Before IEA, he worked on European and Eurasian energy issues in Brussels and also spent ten years working in Eastern Europe, primarily in Ukraine. He studied at Oxford University and Johns Hopkins SAIS.

On Twitter: @tim_gould_

On the Web: https://www.iea.org

Geek rating: 8

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[Episode #264] – History of the Transition in South Africa

Dec 3 2025

Mini Episode

South Africa has earned a reputation for having an old, backward, and unreliable electricity system more dependent on coal than any other country with a similarly sized economy. With an aging fleet of coal-fired power plants owned by a century-old utility that has actively resisted the energy transition, its grid is ripe for modernization.

South Africa is also blessed with largely untapped wind, water, and solar resources that could meet all of the country's energy needs several times over. Few countries better exemplify both the challenge and opportunity in the energy transition.

That transition is now under way, both through deliberate official reforms and through an uncontrolled explosion of solar and batteries that customers are installing on their homes and businesses. Over seven gigawatts of behind-the-meter solar and storage now operate in a country whose grid demand rarely exceeds 30 gigawatts, all deployed with zero subsidies.

To explore this story, Chris traveled to South Africa in September 2025 for a six-week research trip. He recorded numerous interviews with people closely involved in the country's energy transition, which we are featuring in a new miniseries.

We begin with Anton Eberhard, Professor Emeritus at the University of Cape Town's Graduate School of Business. For more than 35 years, Anton has worked to modernize and liberalize South Africa's power sector in pursuit of a more equitable, just, and clean energy system. His commitment to justice runs deep: in 1977, he became one of the first white South Africans imprisoned for refusing conscription into the apartheid military. After his release, he pursued a PhD in solar energy around 1980, doing fieldwork in remote Lesotho villages long before renewables were economically viable.

In this conversation, Anton recounts the evolution of South Africa's power sector alongside his own personal history. He explains why Eskom, once named the best utility in the world, saw its energy availability factor plummet from over 90% to as low as 40% at the height of the country's power crisis. He describes the political economy keeping coal interests entrenched, his role in the groundbreaking 1998 white paper whose proposed reforms are only now, 27 years later, being implemented, and why structural changes remain critical for accelerating the energy transition. This will give you the essential context for the rest of our South Africa miniseries, and contains many universal insights that may be useful to understanding the energy transition wherever you live.

Guest:

Anton Eberhard is a Professor Emeritus and Senior Scholar at the University of Cape Town’s Power Futures Lab in the Graduate School of Business. His research, teaching and advisory work focuses on governance and regulatory incentives to improve utility performance, power investment challenges, the design of new power markets, distributed energy resources and linkages to electricity access and sustainable development. Prof Eberhard was a member of the Global Commission to End Energy Poverty. He has worked in the energy sector across SubSaharan Africa, and other developing regions, for more than 35 years and was the founding Director of the Energy and Development Research Centre. He is a Foundation Member of the Academy of Science of South Africa. He was appointed by the President of South Africa to chair a task team to resolve serious financial and technical challenges in the national utility, Eskom, and to make proposals on the restructuring of the power sector and he currently provides technical assistance to the National Energy Crisis Committee. Previously he has served on the country’s Ministerial Advisory Council on Energy, the National Planning Commission, the National Advisory Council on Innovation, and the Board of the National Electricity Regulator of South Africa. In 2012, he received the SA National Energy Association’s award for outstanding and sustained contributions to the enhancement of the South African energy environment. Prof Eberhard has more than 150 peer reviewed publications to his credit including three recent books: Independent Power Projects in SubSaharan Africa; Power Sector Reform and Regulation in Africa; and Africa’s Power Infrastructure: Investment, Integration and Efficiency. He has undertaken numerous assignments for governments, utilities, regulatory authorities, donor and multi-lateral agencies, banks and private sector companies.

On the Web: Power Futures Lab

Geek rating: 3

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[Episode #263] – The Role of Distribution Utilities

Nov 19 2025

Mini Episode

What is the role of distribution utilities in the energy transition?

Consider this paradox: Marc England, CEO of Australian distribution utility Ausgrid, has two batteries at his home but no solar panels. Instead, he buys grid power at 5 cents per kilowatt-hour during midday solar surplus, stores it, and then sells it back to the grid when prices are high, sometimes making $100 profit in a single day. Similarly, over 100,000 customers in Australia have installed batteries in their homes under a federal incentive program in just the past three months. But commercial players aren't building battery arrays on his network, despite slashing connection charges. And every time he flies into Sydney, he sees miles of empty warehouse rooftops that could host far more solar capacity if tariffs and other regulatory structures were reformed.

These market dislocations are part of an ongoing debate about who should build and own distributed energy assets (DERs). Should distribution utilities do it in order to maximize their integration? Or should they primarily provide a platform for consumer-owned DERs to connect and transact on an equal footing with utility-scale systems? Is it more practical and cost-effective for distribution utilities to build assets like battery storage systems and public EV chargers, especially where private-sector companies are not, or would it be cheaper and faster to maximize customer investment and rebuild the grid from the bottom-up?

For this conversation, Chris traveled to Sydney, Australia to debate these questions with Marc England in person. As Chris discussed with grid expert Lorenzo Kristov in Episode #205 and our Australia 2024 miniseries, there's no perfect answer, but these market structure questions will partly determine the speed of our response to climate change.

Guest:

Marc England is CEO of Ausgrid, Australia’s largest electricity network, based in New South Wales.

Marc joined Ausgrid as CEO in 2023, bringing a wealth of global experience spanning the energy, oil and gas and automotive industries.

Throughout his career, Marc has held a number of executive positions. Prior to joining Ausgrid, Marc was the CEO of Genesis Energy in New Zealand, delivering significant transformation and growth to a business that was at the forefront of the energy transition.

Marc also held Executive roles at AGL Energy where he was responsible for the establishment of the company’s New Energy Arm to deliver distributed energy resources to customers. Prior to that, Marc spent six years at British Gas in a range of leadership roles driving impactful commercial and operational outcomes.

On LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/marc-england-9147711

On the Web: Ausgrid.com.au

Geek rating: 3

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[Episode #262] – All Transitions are Local

Nov 5 2025

Mini Episode

Successful energy transition projects are not one-size-fits-all. They are attuned to the local needs of their communities, and allow community priorities to shape resilience, affordability, and equity outcomes.

In today's conversation, Nadia Ahmad, Professor of Law at Barry University in Florida, shares findings from a three-year study of clean energy transitions in Florida, Kansas, Louisiana, and Pennsylvania. Based on more than 100 stakeholder interviews, the research exposes a troubling paradox. Florida suffers from frequent hurricanes, tropical storms, and flash floods, but a utility structure dominated by investor-owned companies actively prevents the community microgrids that would build resilience.

Ahmad explains how legal, policy, and regulatory frameworks at county, municipal, state, and federal levels can support community-driven clean energy transitions. She shares important insights on designing approaches to accelerate the energy transition where you live, including the seven legal elements her team identified for successful projects and the pitfalls to avoid. For instance, Florida's challenges contrast with Germany's success, where nearly half of renewable energy capacity became citizen-owned by the 2010s.

Guest:

Nadia B. Ahmad is a Professor of Law at Barry University School of Law. Professor Ahmad’s research explores the intersections of energy siting, the environment, and sustainable development and draws on international investment law and corporate social responsibility. She currently serves as Vice Chair of the ABA Section of Civil Rights and Social Justice’s Environmental Justice Committee, and the ABA Section of Environment, Energy, and Resources’ Superfund and Natural Resource Damages Litigation Committee. She is an official expert for multilateral development organization, International Bamboo and Rattan Organisation (INBAR) Taskforce on Bamboo for Renewable Energy (TFB4RE), which promotes environmentally sustainable development using bamboo and rattan. Professor Ahmad is a member of the state bars of Florida and Colorado.

On Twitter: @nadiabahmad

On Bluesky: @nadiabahmad.bsky.social

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nadiabahmad/

On the Web: Nadia’s faculty page at Barry University School of Law

Geek rating: 4

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[Episode #261] – The Case Against Climate Doom

Oct 22 2025

Mini Episode

Recent headlines may create the impression that the energy transition is slowing down, struggling against headwinds, and failing to make the requisite progress against our climate targets.

But the reality is that there is enormous progress being made against the climate change challenge, especially if you step back a bit from the daily news flow and consider the trends. There is plenty of evidence that we are in fact making a good deal of progress, and that the energy transition is accelerating, not slowing down. In fact, 2025 may be the year that global emissions peak and go into decline.

In his new book, The Case Against Climate Doom — An Economist's Guide to Climate Optimism, economist Michael Jakob reveals why the "we're too late" narrative isn't just wrong, but one that fossil fuel interests use to delay climate action. Building on his degrees in physics, economics, and international relations, Michael explores how climate change mitigation, adaptation technologies and policies are spreading across the world.

The evidence is striking: Solar costs have dropped 90% in 20 years, wind 80%, batteries 97%. Norway hit 97% EV market share without banning gas cars, simply by making electric vehicles irresistible. Climate litigation is winning unprecedented cases, with Swiss seniors successfully arguing that government inaction violates human rights. Over 5,000 climate policies now exist worldwide, up from under 100 in 2005.

In today's conversation, we explore five examples from each dimension the book covers: social progress, political change, and technological advances. From the collapse of carbon lock-in, to why even Texas became a green energy powerhouse, this interview offers clear evidence showing why the transition is continuing to accelerate, not stall.

Guest:

Michael Jakob is an independent researcher and consultant working under the label ‘Climate Transition Economics’. He holds a PhD in economics from the Technical University of Berlin and has obtained degrees in physics, economics, and international relations from universities in Munich, St. Gallen, and Geneva. His research interests include climate change mitigation in developing countries, the political economy of climate policy as well as the interlinkages between environmental policy and human well-being. Michael has advised governments, international organizations as well as NGOs and served as contributing author to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report.

On Bluesky: https://ct-economics.bsky.social/

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-jakob-3929215/

On the Web: https://www.ct-economics.net/

Geek rating: 2

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[Episode #231] – Five Times Faster

Aug 21 2024

Mini Episode

Why have our climate policies failed to significantly reduce carbon emissions? What new strategies could help us decarbonize the global energy system five times faster — as is needed to avoid the worst climate scenarios?

Our guest in this episode believes he has some answers to these questions.

Simon Sharpe has been personally involved in the crafting of climate policy in the UK for over a decade. He designed and led flagship international campaigns for climate policy in 2020-2021, when the UK hosted COP26, and has held key roles in the UK Government, including as head of a private office to a minister of energy and climate change. His diplomatic experience includes postings in China and India. Currently, he is Director of Economics for the Climate Champions Team and a Senior Fellow at the World Resources Institute. Simon has published influential academic papers and created groundbreaking international initiatives in climate change risk assessment, economics, policy, and diplomacy.

In his 2023 book, Five Times Faster—Rethinking the Science, Economics, and Diplomacy of Climate Change, Simon lays out why the institutions of science, economics, and climate diplomacy that should be helping us are holding us back. Chapter by chapter, he forensically analyzes why so many of our climate policies have failed to produce the desired results, demonstrating how science is pulling its punches, diplomacy is picking the wrong battles, and economics is fighting for the wrong side. More importantly, he outlines how to develop alternative policies that could actually work.

Guest:

Simon Sharpe is Director of Economics for the Climate Champions Team and a Senior Fellow at the World Resources Institute. He designed and led flagship international campaigns of the UK’s Presidency of the UN climate change talks (COP26) in 2020-2021; worked as the head of private office to a minister of energy and climate change in the UK Government; and has served on diplomatic postings in China and India. He has published influential academic papers and created groundbreaking international initiatives in climate change risk assessment, economics, policy and diplomacy.

On the Web: fivetimesfaster.org

Geek rating: 6

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[Episode #196] – Unglamorous Solutions

Apr 19 2023

Mini Episode

Most energy transition reporting narrowly focuses on technology stories. When journalists do occasionally write about energy transition policy and politics, they tend to limit the framing to a particular type of energy technology, such as drilling for oil or putting up a new wind farm.

What if this technological tunnel vision is causing us to overlook the most important aspects of the energy transition? If the most transformative and enduring aspects of transition end up being policy and investment, especially at the local level, these topics rarely get the discussion they deserve. Instead of focusing on flashy technologies like hydrogen and nuclear power, should we also give equal attention to unglamorous solutions like insulation and wider sidewalks? What if the things we need most have no natural champions in industry or political leadership? If so, who will advocate for them?

Our guest in this episode is a researcher who has thought deeply about rebalancing the energy transition conversation. Dr. Marie Claire Brisbois of the University of Sussex draws from her work on power, politics and influence to suggest important changes that we need to make to our institutions of governance and our investment strategies to realize the energy transition’s full potential. It’s a thoughtful, out-of-the-box discussion that will give you much to think about!

Geek rating: 2

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[Episode #141] – Making Climate Policy Work

Feb 17 2021

Mini Episode

Why have nearly all attempts to price carbon failed, while targeted policies to achieve certain objectives, like phase out coal plants or increase wind and solar generation, succeeded? And how can we design climate policies that are truly effective?

In their new book, Making Climate Policy Work, Danny Cullenward and David Victor argue that policymakers and policy advocates rely too heavily on market forces to combat climate change, and instead should be focusing on smart, targeted industrial policy strategies aimed specifically at reducing greenhouse gases. Market-based climate policies are doing very little to reduce emissions today, they say, but with careful reforms, markets can be harnessed to help us make meaningful progress against the climate challenge.

In this episode we speak with one of the authors and try to distill a recipe for good climate policy from their book.

Geek rating: 5

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[Episode #129] – Deep Decarbonization Policy for the US

Sep 2 2020

Mini Episode

We have seen numerous models showing how a mostly- or fully-decarbonized energy system can work, but how do we actually plot a path from where we are now to a deeply decarbonized energy system in the future? What are the specific policy pathways that we need to follow? And how can we make sure that we’re making the right moves now to put ourselves on those paths?

In this episode, we speak with renowned economist Dr. Jeffrey Sachs of Columbia University about why deep decarbonization must be our goal for the global economy, as well as some of the main pathways to that goal. Based on numerous studies, including the output of the multi-country Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project, as well as several major papers which are in the process of being published under the auspices of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN), we discuss how energy transition is actually very affordable and practical, and will ultimately deliver a better world on numerous fronts. Dr. Sachs shares with us not only his vision for a global energy transition, but some deep insights, based on his 40 years of study, about the importance of strong leadership in achieving it, and some of the interesting parallels between this moment and the Great Depression.

Geek rating: 3

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[Episode #121] – Winning and Losing the Policy Game

May 13 2020

Mini Episode

Conventional thinking is that policy supports the advancement of clean energy gradually and progressively, with hard-won gains setting up further success over time. And sometimes, it does play out this way. But sometimes it doesn’t, too. Our guest in this episode, Dr. Leah Stokes of UC Santa Barbara, describes the policymaking around energy transition as a matter of “organized combat” between clean energy advocates and incumbents in the utility and fossil fuel sectors — a process of combat which produces winners and losers. And rather than be shy about that, she argues, advocates for climate action and energy transition need to learn from their opponents and get much more organized and serious about winning policy battles.

In this two-hour interview, we talk through the history of clean energy policymaking, and how it was rolled back or thwarted, in four U.S. states. Step by step and case by case, we can learn from her original research what the winning tactics are, and how to lock in victories when we win them. This episode is critical listening for anyone involved in policymaking, regulatory interventions, crafting legislation, or activism.

Geek rating: 3

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