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Topic: Decarbonization

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[Episode #251] – South Australia on Point

Jun 4 2025

Mini Episode

This episode is the final part in our miniseries about Australia's energy transition.

In late 2024, Chris traveled to Australia and recorded interviews with a wide range of experts who are intimately involved in the energy transition there. We featured some of them in the earlier episodes of this miniseries, namely, Episodes #234, #235, #246, #247, and #249.

In this episode, we take a close look at South Australia, where rooftop solar alone already powers the entire state grid at times. By 2027, South Australia plans to operate with 100% variable renewable energy, making it the first gigawatt-scale grid in the world to achieve this milestone.

The challenge? SA Power Networks, the distribution grid operator, doesn't control generation, transmission, or metering, and doesn't buy or sell electricity. This means South Australia must figure out how to maintain a stable, reliable grid consisting largely of customer-owned energy resources.

In this conversation, James Brown, Head of Network Strategy at SA Power Networks, explains how his team of engineers and stakeholders are finding innovative solutions to meet this challenge. Their approaches will offer valuable lessons for grids worldwide as they, too, transition to electricity systems almost entirely powered by variable renewables.

Guest:

James Brown is Head of Network Strategy for SA Power Networks. James is responsible for facilitation and oversight of long-term strategy to ensure that the network, and the services it delivers, adapt to changing environmental factors.

James has over 10 years’ experience delivering world-leading strategy and innovation in the energy sector. His current role is leading the Network Strategy team at SA Power Networks’ Network Innovation Centre, responsible for pilots, trials and major programs of work that are shaping the distributed energy future.

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-brown-a856a7114/

Geek rating: 9

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[Episode #249] – Solar Innovation in Australia

May 7 2025

Mini Episode

This episode continues our miniseries on Australia’s energy transition.

In late 2024, Chris traveled to Australia and recorded interviews with a wide range of experts who are intimately involved in the energy transition there. Previous episodes in this miniseries are Episode #234, Episode #235, Episode #246, and Episode #247.

In this episode, we feature three researchers and entrepreneurs in Australia who are advancing solar technology research and development:

  • Martin Green, Professor at University of New South Wales, Sydney and Director of the Australian Centre for Advanced Photovoltaics.
  • Craig Wood, CEO of Vast Energy, a concentrated solar thermal power (CSP) company.
  • Richard Payne, CEO of RayGen, a concentrated solar PV and solar thermal company.

In the next and final episode in this miniseries, we’ll take a close look at how one Australian state is solving the challenges of knitting together customer-owned systems into a reliable power grid.

Guest #1:

Craig Wood is the CEO of Vast. Craig has led Vast since 2016, proving the internationally awarded solar thermal technology at a Pilot Plant in regional NSW and leading the development of Vast Solar’s first utility-scale plant in Mount Isa, Queensland.

Craig is an experienced leader with a background in corporate management, structured finance and the energy and technology sectors. Prior to joining Vast in 2015, he worked in London, NewYork, Sydney and Perth and has held leadership roles in diverse industrial and manufacturing organisations including Browne’s Dairy, Archer Capital, and Lehman Brothers.

Craig holds a BSc in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Western Australia and a MSc of Finance from the London Business School. He was also a Rhodes Scholar at the University of Oxford.

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/craig-wood-59bb3a111/

On the Web:  https://www.vast.energy/

Guest #2:

Dr. Martin Green is Scientia Professor at the University of New South Wales, Sydney and Director of the Australian Centre for Advanced Photovoltaics, involving several other Australian Universities and research groups. His group’s contributions to photovoltaics are well known and include holding the record for silicon solar cell efficiency for 30 of the last 39 years, described as one of the “Top Ten” Milestones in the history of solar photovoltaics. The PERC solar cell that he invented in 1983 and his team developed to its full potential accounted for 91.2% of worldwide silicon solar module production in 2021 (CPIA).

Major international awards include the 1999 Australia Prize, the 2002 Right Livelihood Award, also known as the Alternative Nobel Prize, the 2007 SolarWorld Einstein Award, the 2016 Ian Wark Medal from the Australian Academy of Science, the prestigious Global Energy Prize in 2018, the 2021 Japan Prize, the 2022 Millenium Technology Prize and, with three former students, the 2023 Queen Elizabeth Prize for Engineering.

On the Web:  Martin’s page at UNSW

Guest #3:

Richard Payne is the CEO of RayGen, where he has been since 2015. Previously at RayGen, he served as Chief Operating Officer responsible for the development of RayGen’s core technology. Prior to that, he worked at Ceramic Fuel Cells Limited, where he held the roles of Engineering Manager, General Manager of Operations, and Chief Operating Officer. Richard is a qualified Chemical Engineer and spent time in the steel industry as a process engineer prior to his role in developing and commercializing fuel cell technology. He’s committed to tackling climate change and protecting of the environment, and is passionate about birdwatching and native gardening.

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-payne-0a83871/

On the Web: https://raygen.com/

Geek rating: 8

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[Episode #247] – Energy Innovations in Australia

Apr 9 2025

Mini Episode

This episode is part of a miniseries about Australia's energy transition.

In late 2024, Chris traveled to Australia and recorded interviews with experts closely involved in its energy transition. The first of those interviews was featured in Episode #234, and the second in Episode #235. In Episode #246, we explored how the Australian government is working with the grid power sector to plan its transition to renewables while maintaining system reliability.

In this episode, we explore innovative approaches Australia is using to manage the evolution of its energy system.

To tell this part of the story, we weave together the perspectives of several guests:

  • Darren Miller, CEO of ARENA, explains their investment focus on early-stage technologies.
  • Gabrielle Kuiper, energy and climate change professional, shares insights on DER integration across Australia.
  • Stephanie Unwin, CEO of Horizon Power, discusses the unique challenges of managing a remote utility in Western Australia.
  • Professor John Boland describes how he and his wife used low-tech solutions to transform an uncomfortable old house into a comfortable urban oasis.

In the next miniseries episodes, we'll explore more innovations in solar power and take a close look at how one Australian state is solving the challenges of knitting together customer-owned systems into a reliable power grid.

Guest #1:

Darren Miller has been the Chief Executive Officer of the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) since 2018. With 30 years’ experience across renewable energy, electricity retail, technology, finance, media and entertainment, Darren has led ARENA into new strategic areas. With a focus on optimising Australia’s electricity transition, commercialising renewable hydrogen, supporting the transition to low emissions metals and decarbonising transport, Darren’s leadership has given clear and defined purpose to ARENA in meeting Australia’s net zero targets and setting Australia up as a potential renewable energy superpower.

Prior to ARENA, Darren was co-founder and CEO of Mojo Power, an innovative electricity retailer. He was also previously the Director of Asset Finance at Sungevity Australia, and co-founder and CEO of Sumwise, a technology and services company. His breadth of experience includes managing investments for Publishing and Broadcasting Limited and Consolidated Press Holdings, as well as in corporate finance and advisory at Ernst & Young. He is a Chartered Accountant with a Bachelor of Commerce (Hons) from the University of New South Wales.

On the Web:  https://arena.gov.au/

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/darrenhmiller/

Guest #2:

Dr Gabrielle Kuiper is an energy, sustainability and climate change professional with over 20 years’ experience in the corporate world, government and non-government organisations and academia. Dr Kuiper has held senior executive or senior advisory energy-related positions at the Energy Security Board, in the Office of the Prime Minister, at the Public Interest Advocacy Centre (PIAC) and in the NSW Government. Dr Kuiper currently works internationally and in Australia on policy and regulation to support Distributed Energy Resources (DER), including as a guest contributor with IEEFA, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, an international independent think tank focused on speeding up the energy transition.

On Twitter: @GabrielleKuiper

On the Web: Gabrielle’s reports for IEEFA

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dr-gabrielle-kuiper-2016/

Guest #3:

John Boland is Professor of Environmental Mathematics and Deputy Director of the Industrial AI Research Centre at the University of South Australia.

His research covers a wide range of areas in what can be termed environmental mathematics, from water resource management to renewable energy utilisation to energy efficient house design to environmental accounting.  He is a Fellow of the Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, and of the Australian Institute of Energy.  He has had 35 successful PhD student completions and is an Australian Expert member of the International Energy Agency Task 16 on solar resource assessment and forecasting for photovoltaic systems.  He has performed consultancy work on topics including integration of renewables into the grid and the reliability standard for electricity for the AEMO and AEMC.

Chris Bryant is a qualified Permaculture Designer, and her background as a health professional combines well with permaculture principles to enhance her own and others’ health and comfort.

John and Chris have been featured on Gardening Australia in a segment entitled Mediterranean Mindset.  They also manage a private conservation park at Monarto, fully heritage listed, where they have a Biodiversity Credit Scheme grant to enhance the biodiversity over ten years.

On the Web: https://people.unisa.edu.au/john.boland

Guest #4:

Stephanie Unwin is the CEO of Western Australia’s regional power provider, Horizon Power. Ms. Unwin a Senate member of Murdoch University, Non Executive Director of Energy Vault,  Director of the Industry body: Energy Networks Australia, and a member of the investment committee at Kilara Capital. Her past experience included being non-executive director of Zenith Energy, Alacer Gold Corp and Integra Mining Limited, as well as non-executive director and then CEO at Phylogica. Ms Unwin has held several executive roles with Verve Energy, then transitioning to Synergy, and CBH Group. She was also a board member of the Australian Renewable Energy Agency for over 5 years. Ms Unwin commenced her career with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, then with Freehills. She then joined Craig Readhead & Co and was made a partner of the boutique practice Pullinger Readhead Stewart. Ms Unwin subsequently joined Maxim Litigation Consultants as principal. Ms Unwin holds Bachelor of Laws (LLB) and Economics (BEcon) from Murdoch University. She is also a Harvard Business School (AMP) graduate.

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/stephanie-unwin-63934b2b

On the Web:  https://www.horizonpower.com.au/

Geek rating: 6

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[Episode #246] – Meeting Australia’s 2030 Target

Mar 26 2025

Mini Episode

This episode is part of a miniseries about Australia’s energy transition.

In late 2024, Chris traveled to Australia and recorded interviews with a wide range of experts who are closely involved in its energy transition. The first of those interviews was featured in Episode #234, and the second in Episode #235.

In this episode, we'll see how the Australian government is working with the grid power sector to plan and execute its transition to renewables—despite a political opposition committed to fossil fuels and nuclear. We'll also explore what's being done to ensure adequate capacity and maintain system reliability during this transformation.

To tell this story, we weave together the perspectives of several guests:

  • Chris Bowen, Minister for Climate Change and Energy for the Australian Labor Party, explains Australia's decarbonization targets and the government's framework to achieve them.
  • Matt Kean, Chair of Australia's Climate Change Authority, shares his team’s findings about the best pathways to meet those targets.
  • Alex Wonhas of AMPYR shares insights from helping grid operator AEMO develop Integrated System Plans that describe how to evolve the system toward those targets while maintaining reliability.
  • Tristan Edis of Green Energy Markets discusses the technical considerations of orchestrating new grid power resources.

In the subsequent episodes in this miniseries, we’ll be exploring how Australia is using innovation to meet the challenges of the transition. We’ll also take a closer look at how they use DER integration to support the system while helping customers gain more control over their energy bills and even save money.

Guest #1:

Dr. Alex Wonhas is a veteran senior executive and thought leader who has shaped the national and state-based strategic agendas in Australia’s energy sector for more than three decades.

Through roles including Executive General Manager at AEMO, Managing Director at Aurecon, and Executive Director at CSIRO, he has worked extensively with governments and industry in the Energy and Resources sector on issues ranging from strategic investment decisions in a complex and rapidly changing market environment, development and procurement of new large-scale infrastructure, impact of new technologies, to operational and organisational improvement. He is currently the CEO of AMPYR Australia.

Alex has served on a range of energy and resources related advisory committees and boards, including the Energy Corporation of New South Wales, CSIRO Chile, Evergen, CO2CRC, ANLEC, and the Australian Solar Institute. He has a PhD in Theoretical Physics from the University of Cambridge.

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexwonhas/

Guest #2:

Chris Bowen is Minister for Climate Change and Energy for the Australian Labor Party, representing Prospect, New South Wales in the House of Representatives. He has held a wide range of portfolios including serving as Treasurer, Minister for Human Services, Minister for Immigration, Minister for Financial Services, Assistant Treasurer, Minister for Competition Policy, Minister for Small Business and Minister for Tertiary Education. Chris has been responsible for a range of significant policy reform programs in these portfolios.

He served as Interim Leader of the Labor Party and Acting Leader of the Opposition following the 2013 Federal election and served as Shadow Treasurer.

On Twitter: @bowenchris

On the Australian Government website: https://www.aph.gov.au/Senators_and_Members/Parliamentarian?MPID=DZS

On the Web: https://www.chrisbowen.net/

Guest #3:

The Hon. Matt Kean is the Chair of Australia’s Climate Change Authority. He is also the Director of Regulatory Affairs and Strategic Partnerships at Wollemi Capital.

Matt was most recently the New South Wales (NSW) Government Shadow Minister for Health. He was Deputy Leader of the NSW Liberal party from August 2022 until March 2023. Throughout his 13-year political career, Matt also held ministries of Innovation and Better Regulation, Treasury, Energy and Environment. He was the local New South Wales Government member for Hornsby from 2011 until 2024.

As Treasurer and Energy Minister of NSW, Matt championed climate action that is in the best interests of households and businesses. In 2020, he delivered the Electricity Infrastructure Roadmap: A 20-year plan for NSW’s energy infrastructure. The roadmap spurs private investment in renewable energy while reducing emissions and power bills for the people of NSW.

On Twitter: @Matt_KeanMP

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-kean-mp/

On the Web: https://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/

Guest #4:

Tristan Edis has worked on commercial and policy initiatives for the energy transition for 24 years.

Currently he is the Director of Analysis and Advisory at Green Energy Markets. He undertakes research to support clients making investment, trading and policy decisions related to energy and carbon abatement markets.

Tristan has written extensively on how to improve the energy system and markets to deliver reliable and affordable energy while also addressing climate change.

Previously, he has worked in the Clean Energy Council for the Australian Government, Ernst & Young, and the Grattan Institute think tank. He was also the editor of a clean energy news website called Climate Spectator.

On Twitter: @TristanEdis

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tristan-edis-7b107998/

On the Web:  https://www.greenmarkets.com.au/

Tristan’s research papers in IEEFA

Tristan’s articles in AFR

Tristan’s articles in The Guardian

Tristan’s articles in Watt Clarity

Tristan’s articles in Renew Economy

Tristan’s articles in Inside Story

Tristan’s articles in The Australian

Geek rating: 5

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[Episode #245] – Evolving the UK Energy System Part 3

Mar 12 2025

Mini Episode

In the first part, Episode #240, we reviewed the UK's unique strategies for procuring energy transition solutions. In the second part, Episode #241, we covered how the nation’s energy regulator is driving investment to support the transition.

To conclude this miniseries, we welcome back Julian Leslie, who first joined us in Episode #174. Julian is now Director of Strategic Energy Planning and Chief Engineer at Britain’s National Energy System Operator (NESO), a recently-created agency tasked with preparing Great Britain's electricity network for net zero operation by 2030. He also coordinates regional and national plans for Britain’s energy system—including gas and emerging heat networks—to meet decarbonization targets.

In this conversation, we review the progress of the innovative Pathfinder programs we discussed back in 2022, which invited the market to provide solutions that could help Britain integrate more wind and solar into its grid. We walk through the extensive process that NESO is undertaking to plan and coordinate the development of a fully decarbonized power grid by 2030. And we discuss in detail how Britain is working to massively expand its capacity in offshore and onshore wind, solar, transmission, and battery storage to meet that goal.

By setting clear decarbonization targets, then collaborating with industry and stakeholders to carry out plans to meet them, the UK is showing the world how to execute a successful energy transition. We hope this miniseries inspires other nations to follow their example.

Guest:

Julian Leslie is Director of Strategic Energy Planning and Chief Engineer at the UK’s National Energy System Operator (NESO). Julian is a chartered engineer with three decades of transmission system operation, planning and investment experience. Julian’s role is to prepare Great Britain’s electricity network for net zero operation, defining future network needs so that market and network owners can invest in the right technology solutions at the right time. Julian is also developing whole energy system plans on a national and regional basis.

On Twitter: @JulianLeslie6

On the Web:  Julian’s profile at NESO

Geek rating: 7

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[Episode #236] – Zero Carbon Industry

Nov 6 2024

Mini Episode

The energy transition is making good progress on several fronts. Renewables are displacing fossil fueled electricity generation. Heat pumps are decarbonizing space heating. Electric vehicles of all sizes are replacing oil-powered cars.

But the world's industrial decarbonization is really just getting started. Industry generates roughly one-third of all human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, so solutions for this sector are critical for the energy transition.

We have made faster progress in decarbonizing electricity, transportation, and heating because it’s easier to replace a handful of dirty technologies with clean alternatives. Decarbonizing industry, however, is a far more complex task, involving thousands of materials, processes, and end products. That’s why they used to be called “hard-to-decarbonize” sectors.

Fortunately, there are clear starting points. More than half of industrial emissions come from steel, cement, and chemicals—which we know how to decarbonize. And there are solutions on the horizon for the rest of industry too.

In this conversation, Jeffrey Rissman, Senior Director of Industry at the San Francisco based think-tank Energy Innovation, walks us through each of the industrial sectors and the solutions for each one. Jeff is the author of a recent book titled Zero-Carbon Industry: Transformative Technologies and Policies to Achieve Sustainable Prosperity, and after listening to this episode, you’ll know just about everything you need to know about industrial decarbonization.

Guest:

Jeffrey Rissman is Senior Director of Industry at Energy Innovation, where he leads the company’s work on technologies and policies to eliminate industrial greenhouse gas emissions. He is the author of Zero-Carbon Industry: Transformative Technologies and Policies to Achieve Sustainable Prosperity (2024) and coauthor of Designing Climate Solutions: A Policy Guide for Low-Carbon Energy (2018). In 2024, Jeffrey was appointed by Sec. Jennifer Granholm to serve on the Department of Energy’s Industrial Technology Innovation Advisory Committee.

Jeff is also the creator of the Energy Policy Simulator, an open-source computer model that quantifies the effects of various energy and environmental policies in combination, predicting outputs such as fuel use, pollutant emissions, financial cost or savings, electric vehicle deployment, power sector structure, and more. Versions of the simulator have been developed for an ever-growing list of countries and regions, in partnership with in-country government agencies or NGOs, accounting for more than 60 percent of the world’s emissions.

Previously, Jeff worked on policies supporting R&D for clean energy and efficiency technologies for the American Energy Innovation Council, where he led a survey of 17 R&D leaders investigating trends, opportunities, and challenges to unleashing private sector energy R&D.

Jeff holds an M.S. in Environmental Sciences and Engineering and a Masters in City and Regional Planning, both from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. He was a Research Fellow for the University of North Carolina Institute for the Environment, where he studied aircraft emissions for the Federal Aviation Administration. Jeff also holds a B.A. in International Relations with honors from Stanford University.

On the Web:  https://www.jeffreyrissman.com

Geek rating: 9

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[Episode #235] – China, India and Australia 2024 Update

Oct 16 2024

Mini Episode

The energy transition in China is a complex picture. China is both the world's largest annual greenhouse gas emitter and the largest market for electric vehicles. It’s the largest user of coal, and it deploys more wind and solar every year than the rest of the world combined. It’s both the largest worry in terms of rising CO2 concentrations, and the biggest hope for curbing emissions.

But in syndicated media, this complex reality tends to be boiled down to old tropes, generalized and unhelpful characterizations, and correct but irrelevant data, instead of any useful context and synthesis.

So you might be forgiven for not knowing that power sector emissions in China actually fell in the second quarter of 2024, and China’s CO2 emissions could be close to a peak in its CO2 emissions, which means the world probably is too.

The reporting on India and the rest of Southeast Asia is even worse, if not nonexistent.

So we are very pleased to welcome back Australian energy analyst Tim Buckley to the show. We sat down in person in Sydney for an hour and a half conversation about the trends and the data in all of those countries, as well as their trade relationships with Australia. And we begin to explore the potential for Australia to use its abundant and cheap wind and solar resources to produce green hydrogen, then use it to upgrade the ores and other materials that it exports to Asia and beyond.

After listening to this episode, we hope you’ll have a much better idea of the reality of the energy transition in Asia and Australia.

Guest:

Tim Buckley is the Founder and Director of Climate Energy Finance (CEF), a Sydney-based think tank established in 2022 that works pro-bono in the public interest on accelerating decarbonisation in line with the climate science.

Tim has 35 years of financial market experience covering the Australian, Asian and global equity markets and is a influential energy finance commentator. He has written more than 100 reports on the global energy transition, and the roles of finance and policy in accelerating critical decarbonisation trends.

Tim was previously the Australasian Director of the global Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, 2013-2021. Prior to this, Tim was a top-rated equity research analyst, including Head of Equity Research in Singapore at Deutsche Bank, Managing Director, Head of Equity Research at Citigroup for 17 years, and co-Managing Director of Arkx Investment Management P/L, a global listed clean energy investment start-up jointly owned with Westpac.

Tim started his career as a lecturer in Finance and Market Regulation at the University of Technology, Sydney before moving to Macquarie Group in 1988 to work in equity research. Tim has a Bachelor of Business majoring in Accounting and Finance from UTS (1985-87), the US SEC Series 7 (General Securities Representative Qualification Examination) and Series 24 (General Securities Principal Qualification Examination) qualifications.

On the Web:  https://climateenergyfinance.org/

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tim-buckley-0a654313/

Geek rating: 7

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[Episode #173] – IPCC AR6 Part 2

May 25 2022

Mini Episode

In this second part of our IPCC Sixth Assessment report (“AR6”) Working Group III coverage, we welcome back our friend and AR6 contributing author Glen Peters of the CICERO Center for International Climate Research. Longtime listeners will remember Glen from his explanation of the ‘carbon budget’ in Episode #57, and on the various scenarios for global warming, what they mean, and the current trajectory for climate change in Episode #112.

Glen was a lead author of AR6 Chapter 3, titled “Mitigation pathways compatible with long-term goals,” so in this episode, we discuss the latest figures for the remaining carbon budget; explore the probabilities for limiting warming to 1.5 and 2°C, and we consider the changing views on the role of direct carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) as parts of the climate toolkit. Glen also gives us a very helpful explanation of some of the new terms and metrics used in AR6, such as the Illustrative Mitigation Pathways (IMPs), the warming Classification levels (C1-C8) and the other policy scenarios.

This is super-geeky but essential-to-understand stuff for anyone working on climate policy!

Geek rating: 8

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[Episode #172] – IPCC AR6 Part 1

May 11 2022

Mini Episode

The IPCC published the final part of its Sixth Assessment (“AR6”), the Working Group III report, on April 4, 2022. The IPCC's Working Group III report contains assessments of how the energy transition can reduce emissions in the context of an updated outlook for global warming. Together, the three reports of AR6 comprise over 6,000 pages of material, so we have chosen to focus our coverage on the Working Group III report, which we present in two episodes.

In this first episode on AR6, we speak with one of the lead authors of the Working Group III report, energy researcher Benjamin Sovacool of the University of Sussex. We discuss some major advances in AR6 over the AR5 report of eight years ago; the gaps between our national climate action ambitions, what is really needed to limit warming to 1.5 or 2°C, and some ways that those gaps can be closed; how market-based financial approaches can be harnessed to reduce carbon; the importance of equity and “just transition” strategies; the challenge of path dependency and technology lock-in; how political economy can inhibit taking action on climate; the roles that non-government actors and individuals can play in the transition; and the various ways of decarbonizing transportation and providing better low-carbon mobility.

Our second episode on AR6, Episode #173, will review the updated figures for the remaining carbon budget, and consider the pathways and probabilities for limiting warming to 1.5 and 2°C.

Geek rating: 5

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[Episode #159] – The Cost of Decarbonization

Nov 10 2021

Mini Episode

Why do the major groups publishing energy forecasts consistently undershoot the progress of energy transition? For decades, public sector agencies, oil industry groups, energy industry consultancies, and even environmental nonprofits have been consistently too pessimistic in their outlooks. So why is it that standard energy forecasting models keep getting transition wrong?

A group of researchers at Oxford University may have an answer to that question with a study they recently published on the future trajectory of the energy transition. The problem, they say, is that standard models don't realistically account for learning curves in manufacturing, and exponential growth in deployment as it relates to transition. Their new approach shows that future cost and deployment curves can be predicted quite accurately for energy transition solutions like solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and hydrogen electrolyzers.

What makes their demonstration particularly exciting isn’t just that they’ve found a better approach to modeling energy transition learning curves; it’s what their model shows: that a rapid energy transition is actually as much as $14 trillion cheaper than not transitioning over the coming decades. In short, these researchers suggest there is no net cost to a sustainable energy transition, and that on the economic merits at least, it’s basically inevitable.

Join us in this episode for a discussion with one of the researchers on the Oxford team, Dr. Matthew Ives. He is an economist and complex systems modeler at Oxford University who is currently researching sensitive intervention points for accelerating progress towards the post-carbon transition. We explore exactly how their modeling was done, exactly where traditional modeling has gone wrong, and what it all means for the energy transition.

Geek rating: 5

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