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Topic: Decarbonization

[Episode #285] – Covering Demand Growth

Over the summer, the IEA projected that carbon emissions from the world's power sector are on track for a new record in 2026. Electricity demand is expected to grow 20% faster than it did a year ago, and this year's gas shock has pushed some countries to use more coal.

But we're fresh off a new milestone for the energy transition. Last year, wind and solar grew enough to cover virtually all of the world's new electricity demand and fossil power fell, so emissions from power plants didn't rise.

So was last year a peak we can count on, or simply a pause? Over the Energy Transition Show's history, we've seen carbon emissions stall out before. In 2017, global emissions had barely grown for three years, and some thought that was it. But then they started to rise again.

How confident can we be that fossil power emissions are truly close to their peak? In this second episode of our documentary series, we follow that question through Chris Nelder's conversations with the analysts who have been tracking it, from 2017 to today. We'll hear the signs of a lasting decline versus a temporary dip, why emerging markets can stop fossil power from growing even if the coal plants they already have don't shut down, and why so much of the answer depends on what China does next.

Geek rating: 5

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[Episode #284] – Faster Than Forecast

When we first created the Energy Transition Show in 2015, solar generated about 250 terawatt hours worldwide. That was roughly as much electricity as California used the same year. A decade later, as the energy transition moved ahead, solar generates more than ten times as much, matching the European Union's total electricity demand.

Though sometimes progress can seem like it isn't happening nearly fast enough. Renewables only edged past coal in 2025, by supplying around a third of global electricity. But everything built over those ten years matters now more than ever. As we reviewed on Episode #272, soon after the US and Israel attacked Iran, the Strait of Hormuz closed, and the aftermath has created a persistent disruption in global energy flows that sent oil, gas and diesel prices surging. Ember's Global Electricity Review, which we covered with Nic Fulghum on Episode #274, found that the growth in solar generation in 2025 alone could displace gas-fired electricity equal to all the LNG exported through the strait that year. Without it, this crisis would be far harder to weather against the reality of constrained fossil fuel supplies.

For decades, forecasts for where the energy transition would be by now kept coming in low. Researchers from the LUT University team featured on Episode #95 went back through the International Energy Agency's World Energy Outlook reports and found they consistently underestimated solar. The IEA's most ambitious scenario from 2022 had annual solar installations peaking at 657 gigawatts in 2040. By SolarPower Europe's count, the world installed more than that in 2025.

This is the first in a new documentary series, built from our past episodes, featuring interviews Chris Nelder recorded while the future was still unfolding, often years ahead of the headlines. We start with Episode #200, where Canary Media's Jeff St. John co-hosted. They remembered how bold a name like "Energy Transition Show" seemed back in 2015. Were the forecasters just being too cautious, or were their methods off?

This year, some are projecting solar installations will fall for the first time in more than twenty years. What should forecasts like that tell us about the road ahead?

Geek rating: 4

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[Episode #266] – Global Electricity Review 2025 (Lagniappe edition)

Full Episode

Happy new year!

To close out 2025, by popular demand, we're lifting the paywall on Episode #254, our comprehensive review of the state of the global energy transition with Ember's Nic Fulghum. This is one of our occasional lagniappe shows—that's what they call a little something extra in New Orleans, like the 13th bagel in a baker's dozen. So, all of our listeners on the free feed can see what you've been missing! We hope you'll share it widely with friends and colleagues because it cuts through the noise with hard data on the state of the global energy transition from one of 2025's most important reports.

Despite claims from both "fossil gradualists" who would like to see the energy transition fail, and "net-zero puritans" who deny that the energy transition is happening at all because emissions are still rising, the transition is very much under way and gathering momentum. Countries are switching to renewables, electrifying transportation and decarbonizing heating faster than even the most seasoned energy analysts thought was possible, while the fossil fuel holdouts still white-knuckling their strategies are quickly dwindling in number.

Ember, a clean energy think tank, published a report in April 2025 titled Global Electricity Review 2025 that plainly lays out these facts. One of its lead authors, Nic Fulghum, joined us in this conversation to discuss the report's findings in a conversation absolutely packed with the data you can use to win any debate with a transition denier.

Nic outlines how solar is growing faster than any energy source in human history, electrification of transport and heating are advancing quickly enough to materially slash fossil fuel demand, and power generation from fossil fuels is headed into structural decline. Global power-sector emissions may finally be close to peaking, thanks to the accelerating energy transition.

Guest:

Nicolas Fulghum is a Senior Energy and Climate Data Analyst at the global energy think Ember, and one of the lead authors of Ember’s flagship report – the Global Electricity Review.

On Bluesky: @nicolasfulghum.bsky.social

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicolas-fulghum/

On Twitter: @nicolasfulghum

Geek rating: 8

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[Episode #261] – The Case Against Climate Doom

Recent headlines may create the impression that the energy transition is slowing down, struggling against headwinds, and failing to make the requisite progress against our climate targets.

But the reality is that there is enormous progress being made against the climate change challenge, especially if you step back a bit from the daily news flow and consider the trends. There is plenty of evidence that we are in fact making a good deal of progress, and that the energy transition is accelerating, not slowing down. In fact, 2025 may be the year that global emissions peak and go into decline.

In his new book, The Case Against Climate Doom — An Economist's Guide to Climate Optimism, economist Michael Jakob reveals why the "we're too late" narrative isn't just wrong, but one that fossil fuel interests use to delay climate action. Building on his degrees in physics, economics, and international relations, Michael explores how climate change mitigation, adaptation technologies and policies are spreading across the world.

The evidence is striking: Solar costs have dropped 90% in 20 years, wind 80%, batteries 97%. Norway hit 97% EV market share without banning gas cars, simply by making electric vehicles irresistible. Climate litigation is winning unprecedented cases, with Swiss seniors successfully arguing that government inaction violates human rights. Over 5,000 climate policies now exist worldwide, up from under 100 in 2005.

In today's conversation, we explore five examples from each dimension the book covers: social progress, political change, and technological advances. From the collapse of carbon lock-in, to why even Texas became a green energy powerhouse, this interview offers clear evidence showing why the transition is continuing to accelerate, not stall.

Guest:

Michael Jakob is an independent researcher and consultant working under the label ‘Climate Transition Economics’. He holds a PhD in economics from the Technical University of Berlin and has obtained degrees in physics, economics, and international relations from universities in Munich, St. Gallen, and Geneva. His research interests include climate change mitigation in developing countries, the political economy of climate policy as well as the interlinkages between environmental policy and human well-being. Michael has advised governments, international organizations as well as NGOs and served as contributing author to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report.

On Bluesky: https://ct-economics.bsky.social/

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-jakob-3929215/

On the Web:  https://www.ct-economics.net/

 

Geek rating: 2

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[Episode #260] – China Energy Transition Review 2025

Over the past decade, China has transformed from a heavily coal-fired country to the undisputed global leader in the energy transition. The pace keeps accelerating: In April 2025 alone, China installed more solar than Australia has in its entire history. By 2030, as little as one-seventh of China's projected spare solar manufacturing capacity could electrify everyone without power in 88 low-income countries.

Yet, this progress has not been recognized by much of the West, which still fixates on headlines about "building three coal plants a week" while missing that China is getting far ahead of US decarbonization efforts. China's vast exports of energy transition solutions are rapidly decarbonizing other emerging economies, while the nation's share of global clean energy patents jumped from 5% in 2000 to 75% today. Chinese companies now spend ten times more on electricity R&D than US companies and match the combined energy R&D spending of the US and EU together. The innovation advantage has flipped.

To understand China's oversized role in the energy transition, Muyi Yang and Sam Butler-Sloss of Ember join us to break down their report China Energy Transition Review 2025. We'll review how China is routinely beating its own transition targets by three to six years. We'll hear how Chinese firms have announced over $200 billion in overseas clean tech manufacturing investments, surpassing the scale of US investment abroad under the Marshall Plan. Solar, batteries, and EVs are growing three times faster than China's overall economy, hitting nearly 10% of GDP. Chinese solar exports to Namibia, Cambodia, and similar countries now exceed the entire centralized power generation capacity of those countries.

The result: what took decades with old energy is happening in years with solar. China's enormous commitment to the energy transition is a strategic path to economic growth and economic and political power, and it heralds the end of fossil fuel's dominance of the global energy system by 2030.

Guest #1:

Dr. Muyi Yang is Senior Policy Analyst at Ember, a global energy and climate think tank. He also holds positions as a non-resident Senior Policy Fellow at Asia Society Australia. Additionally, he is Adjunct Fellow at the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology Sydney and serves as the Secretary of the International Society for Energy Transition Studies.

On Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/muyi-yang-aa185389/?originalSubdomain=au

On X: @ymymilan

Guest #2:

Sam Butler-Sloss is a research manager at Ember where he analyses the global energy transition. He has published numerous articles and reports examining the rapid rise of cleantech and its implications. Prior to Ember, Sam worked at the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) and the Carbon Tracker Initiative.

On LinkedIn

On X

On Bluesky

On Substack

Geek rating: 3

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[Episode #254] – Global Electricity Review 2025

This episode cuts through the noise around energy transition progress with hard data from one of the year's most important reports.

Despite claims from both "fossil gradualists" who would like to see the energy transition fail, and "net-zero puritans" who deny that the energy transition is happening at all because emissions are still rising, the transition is very much under way and gathering momentum. Countries are switching to renewables, electrifying transportation and decarbonizing heating faster than even the most seasoned energy analysts thought was possible, while the fossil fuel holdouts still white-knuckling their strategies are quickly dwindling in number.

Ember, a clean energy think tank, published a report in April titled Global Electricity Review 2025 that plainly lays out these facts. One of its lead authors, Nic Fulghum, joins us to discuss the report's findings in a conversation absolutely packed with the data you can use to win any debate with a transition denier.

Nic outlines how solar is growing faster than any energy source in human history, electrification of transport and heating are advancing quickly enough to materially slash fossil fuel demand, and power generation from fossil fuels is headed into structural decline. Global power-sector emissions may finally be close to peaking, thanks to the accelerating energy transition.

Guest:

Nicolas Fulghum is a Senior Energy and Climate Data Analyst at the global energy think Ember, and one of the lead authors of Ember’s flagship report – the Global Electricity Review.

On Bluesky: @nicolasfulghum.bsky.social

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicolas-fulghum/

On Twitter: @nicolasfulghum

Geek rating: 8

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[Episode #253] – Bioenergy Illusions

Various biofuels such as ethanol, biodiesel, sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), and wood for power plants are labeled as renewable and carbon-neutral. But are they really?

If a farmer converts food-producing land to grow corn for ethanol, does that acre actually reduce carbon emissions? When trees are cut down to fire power plants, can we have confidence they'll be replanted quickly enough to deserve the "renewable" label?

Our guest in today's conversation has spent the past six years traveling around the world to research these questions, and he finds that the answer is nearly always 'no.'

Mike Grunwald, a veteran reporter and author who was our guest on this show in Episode #1, nearly ten years ago, has published a new book sharing the results of his extensive research into the many approaches that have been tried to produce bioenergy, reduce agricultural carbon emissions, increase crop yields, and modify consumer diets. Titled We Are Eating the Earth: The Race to Fix Our Food System and Save Our Climate, it includes a comprehensive study of the bioenergy solutions that have been attempted and their unintended consequences.

This is a 'must-listen' episode for policymakers, investors, and anyone interested in bioenergy's true role in climate solutions.

Guest:

Michael Grunwald is a best-selling author and a widely acclaimed journalist. His latest book is We Are Eating the Earth: The Race to Fix Our Food System and Save Our Climate.

Mike has covered policy and politics as a staff writer for The Washington Post, Time Magazine, and Politico Magazine. He’s won the George Polk Award for national reporting, the Worth Bingham Prize for investigative reporting, the Society of Environment Journalists award for in-depth reporting, and many other honors. He’s written scores of magazine cover stories, about everything from Time’s Man of the Year to the marketing of Barack Obama, and thousands of newspaper stories, including the Post’s lead news story about the September 11 attacks. His work now appears in The New York Times, The Atlantic, Canary Media, and other publications.

Mike’s previous books are The Swamp: The Everglades, Florida, and the Politics of Paradise (2006) and The New New Deal: The Hidden History of Change in the Obama Era (2012).

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-grunwald-70858313/

On Twitter: @MikeGrunwald

On Bluesky: @mikegrunwald.bsky.social

On the Web:  Mike’s speaker profile at Simon & Schuster

Geek rating: 3

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[Episode #251] – South Australia on Point

This episode is the final part in our miniseries about Australia's energy transition.

In late 2024, Chris traveled to Australia and recorded interviews with a wide range of experts who are intimately involved in the energy transition there. We featured some of them in the earlier episodes of this miniseries, namely, Episodes #234, #235, #246, #247, and #249.

In this episode, we take a close look at South Australia, where rooftop solar alone already powers the entire state grid at times. By 2027, South Australia plans to operate with 100% variable renewable energy, making it the first gigawatt-scale grid in the world to achieve this milestone.

The challenge? SA Power Networks, the distribution grid operator, doesn't control generation, transmission, or metering, and doesn't buy or sell electricity. This means South Australia must figure out how to maintain a stable, reliable grid consisting largely of customer-owned energy resources.

In this conversation, James Brown, Head of Network Strategy at SA Power Networks, explains how his team of engineers and stakeholders are finding innovative solutions to meet this challenge. Their approaches will offer valuable lessons for grids worldwide as they, too, transition to electricity systems almost entirely powered by variable renewables.

Guest:

James Brown is Head of Network Strategy for SA Power Networks. James is responsible for facilitation and oversight of long-term strategy to ensure that the network, and the services it delivers, adapt to changing environmental factors.

James has over 10 years’ experience delivering world-leading strategy and innovation in the energy sector. His current role is leading the Network Strategy team at SA Power Networks’ Network Innovation Centre, responsible for pilots, trials and major programs of work that are shaping the distributed energy future.

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-brown-a856a7114/

Geek rating: 9

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[Episode #249] – Solar Innovation in Australia

This episode continues our miniseries on Australia’s energy transition.

In late 2024, Chris traveled to Australia and recorded interviews with a wide range of experts who are intimately involved in the energy transition there. Previous episodes in this miniseries are Episode #234, Episode #235, Episode #246, and Episode #247.

In this episode, we feature three researchers and entrepreneurs in Australia who are advancing solar technology research and development:

  • Martin Green, Professor at University of New South Wales, Sydney and Director of the Australian Centre for Advanced Photovoltaics.
  • Craig Wood, CEO of Vast Energy, a concentrated solar thermal power (CSP) company.
  • Richard Payne, CEO of RayGen, a concentrated solar PV and solar thermal company.

In the next and final episode in this miniseries, we’ll take a close look at how one Australian state is solving the challenges of knitting together customer-owned systems into a reliable power grid.

Guest #1:

Craig Wood is the CEO of Vast. Craig has led Vast since 2016, proving the internationally awarded solar thermal technology at a Pilot Plant in regional NSW and leading the development of Vast Solar’s first utility-scale plant in Mount Isa, Queensland.

Craig is an experienced leader with a background in corporate management, structured finance and the energy and technology sectors. Prior to joining Vast in 2015, he worked in London, NewYork, Sydney and Perth and has held leadership roles in diverse industrial and manufacturing organisations including Browne’s Dairy, Archer Capital, and Lehman Brothers.

Craig holds a BSc in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Western Australia and a MSc of Finance from the London Business School. He was also a Rhodes Scholar at the University of Oxford.

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/craig-wood-59bb3a111/

On the Web:  https://www.vast.energy/

Guest #2:

Dr. Martin Green is Scientia Professor at the University of New South Wales, Sydney and Director of the Australian Centre for Advanced Photovoltaics, involving several other Australian Universities and research groups. His group’s contributions to photovoltaics are well known and include holding the record for silicon solar cell efficiency for 30 of the last 39 years, described as one of the “Top Ten” Milestones in the history of solar photovoltaics. The PERC solar cell that he invented in 1983 and his team developed to its full potential accounted for 91.2% of worldwide silicon solar module production in 2021 (CPIA).

Major international awards include the 1999 Australia Prize, the 2002 Right Livelihood Award, also known as the Alternative Nobel Prize, the 2007 SolarWorld Einstein Award, the 2016 Ian Wark Medal from the Australian Academy of Science, the prestigious Global Energy Prize in 2018, the 2021 Japan Prize, the 2022 Millenium Technology Prize and, with three former students, the 2023 Queen Elizabeth Prize for Engineering.

On the Web:  Martin’s page at UNSW

Guest #3:

Richard Payne is the CEO of RayGen, where he has been since 2015. Previously at RayGen, he served as Chief Operating Officer responsible for the development of RayGen’s core technology. Prior to that, he worked at Ceramic Fuel Cells Limited, where he held the roles of Engineering Manager, General Manager of Operations, and Chief Operating Officer. Richard is a qualified Chemical Engineer and spent time in the steel industry as a process engineer prior to his role in developing and commercializing fuel cell technology. He’s committed to tackling climate change and protecting of the environment, and is passionate about birdwatching and native gardening.

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-payne-0a83871/

On the Web: https://raygen.com/

Geek rating: 8

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[Episode #247] – Energy Innovations in Australia

This episode is part of a miniseries about Australia's energy transition.

In late 2024, Chris traveled to Australia and recorded interviews with experts closely involved in its energy transition. The first of those interviews was featured in Episode #234, and the second in Episode #235. In Episode #246, we explored how the Australian government is working with the grid power sector to plan its transition to renewables while maintaining system reliability.

In this episode, we explore innovative approaches Australia is using to manage the evolution of its energy system.

To tell this part of the story, we weave together the perspectives of several guests:

  • Darren Miller, CEO of ARENA, explains their investment focus on early-stage technologies.
  • Gabrielle Kuiper, energy and climate change professional, shares insights on DER integration across Australia.
  • Stephanie Unwin, CEO of Horizon Power, discusses the unique challenges of managing a remote utility in Western Australia.
  • Professor John Boland describes how he and his wife used low-tech solutions to transform an uncomfortable old house into a comfortable urban oasis.

In the next miniseries episodes, we'll explore more innovations in solar power and take a close look at how one Australian state is solving the challenges of knitting together customer-owned systems into a reliable power grid.

Guest #1:

Darren Miller has been the Chief Executive Officer of the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) since 2018. With 30 years’ experience across renewable energy, electricity retail, technology, finance, media and entertainment, Darren has led ARENA into new strategic areas. With a focus on optimising Australia’s electricity transition, commercialising renewable hydrogen, supporting the transition to low emissions metals and decarbonising transport, Darren’s leadership has given clear and defined purpose to ARENA in meeting Australia’s net zero targets and setting Australia up as a potential renewable energy superpower.

Prior to ARENA, Darren was co-founder and CEO of Mojo Power, an innovative electricity retailer. He was also previously the Director of Asset Finance at Sungevity Australia, and co-founder and CEO of Sumwise, a technology and services company. His breadth of experience includes managing investments for Publishing and Broadcasting Limited and Consolidated Press Holdings, as well as in corporate finance and advisory at Ernst & Young. He is a Chartered Accountant with a Bachelor of Commerce (Hons) from the University of New South Wales.

On the Web:  https://arena.gov.au/

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/darrenhmiller/

Guest #2:

Dr Gabrielle Kuiper is an energy, sustainability and climate change professional with over 20 years’ experience in the corporate world, government and non-government organisations and academia. Dr Kuiper has held senior executive or senior advisory energy-related positions at the Energy Security Board, in the Office of the Prime Minister, at the Public Interest Advocacy Centre (PIAC) and in the NSW Government. Dr Kuiper currently works internationally and in Australia on policy and regulation to support Distributed Energy Resources (DER), including as a guest contributor with IEEFA, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, an international independent think tank focused on speeding up the energy transition.

On Twitter: @GabrielleKuiper

On the Web: Gabrielle’s reports for IEEFA

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dr-gabrielle-kuiper-2016/

Guest #3:

John Boland is Professor of Environmental Mathematics and Deputy Director of the Industrial AI Research Centre at the University of South Australia.

His research covers a wide range of areas in what can be termed environmental mathematics, from water resource management to renewable energy utilisation to energy efficient house design to environmental accounting.  He is a Fellow of the Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, and of the Australian Institute of Energy.  He has had 35 successful PhD student completions and is an Australian Expert member of the International Energy Agency Task 16 on solar resource assessment and forecasting for photovoltaic systems.  He has performed consultancy work on topics including integration of renewables into the grid and the reliability standard for electricity for the AEMO and AEMC.

Chris Bryant is a qualified Permaculture Designer, and her background as a health professional combines well with permaculture principles to enhance her own and others’ health and comfort.

John and Chris have been featured on Gardening Australia in a segment entitled Mediterranean Mindset.  They also manage a private conservation park at Monarto, fully heritage listed, where they have a Biodiversity Credit Scheme grant to enhance the biodiversity over ten years.

On the Web: https://people.unisa.edu.au/john.boland

Guest #4:

Stephanie Unwin is the CEO of Western Australia’s regional power provider, Horizon Power. Ms. Unwin a Senate member of Murdoch University, Non Executive Director of Energy Vault,  Director of the Industry body: Energy Networks Australia, and a member of the investment committee at Kilara Capital. Her past experience included being non-executive director of Zenith Energy, Alacer Gold Corp and Integra Mining Limited, as well as non-executive director and then CEO at Phylogica. Ms Unwin has held several executive roles with Verve Energy, then transitioning to Synergy, and CBH Group. She was also a board member of the Australian Renewable Energy Agency for over 5 years. Ms Unwin commenced her career with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, then with Freehills. She then joined Craig Readhead & Co and was made a partner of the boutique practice Pullinger Readhead Stewart. Ms Unwin subsequently joined Maxim Litigation Consultants as principal. Ms Unwin holds Bachelor of Laws (LLB) and Economics (BEcon) from Murdoch University. She is also a Harvard Business School (AMP) graduate.

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/stephanie-unwin-63934b2b

On the Web:  https://www.horizonpower.com.au/

Geek rating: 6

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