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[Episode #235] – China, India and Australia 2024 Update

Oct 16 2024

Mini Episode

The energy transition in China is a complex picture. China is both the world's largest annual greenhouse gas emitter and the largest market for electric vehicles. It’s the largest user of coal, and it deploys more wind and solar every year than the rest of the world combined. It’s both the largest worry in terms of rising CO2 concentrations, and the biggest hope for curbing emissions.

But in syndicated media, this complex reality tends to be boiled down to old tropes, generalized and unhelpful characterizations, and correct but irrelevant data, instead of any useful context and synthesis.

So you might be forgiven for not knowing that power sector emissions in China actually fell in the second quarter of 2024, and China’s CO2 emissions could be close to a peak in its CO2 emissions, which means the world probably is too.

The reporting on India and the rest of Southeast Asia is even worse, if not nonexistent.

So we are very pleased to welcome back Australian energy analyst Tim Buckley to the show. We sat down in person in Sydney for an hour and a half conversation about the trends and the data in all of those countries, as well as their trade relationships with Australia. And we begin to explore the potential for Australia to use its abundant and cheap wind and solar resources to produce green hydrogen, then use it to upgrade the ores and other materials that it exports to Asia and beyond.

After listening to this episode, we hope you’ll have a much better idea of the reality of the energy transition in Asia and Australia.

Guest:

Tim Buckley is the Founder and Director of Climate Energy Finance (CEF), a Sydney-based think tank established in 2022 that works pro-bono in the public interest on accelerating decarbonisation in line with the climate science.

Tim has 35 years of financial market experience covering the Australian, Asian and global equity markets and is a influential energy finance commentator. He has written more than 100 reports on the global energy transition, and the roles of finance and policy in accelerating critical decarbonisation trends.

Tim was previously the Australasian Director of the global Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, 2013-2021. Prior to this, Tim was a top-rated equity research analyst, including Head of Equity Research in Singapore at Deutsche Bank, Managing Director, Head of Equity Research at Citigroup for 17 years, and co-Managing Director of Arkx Investment Management P/L, a global listed clean energy investment start-up jointly owned with Westpac.

Tim started his career as a lecturer in Finance and Market Regulation at the University of Technology, Sydney before moving to Macquarie Group in 1988 to work in equity research. Tim has a Bachelor of Business majoring in Accounting and Finance from UTS (1985-87), the US SEC Series 7 (General Securities Representative Qualification Examination) and Series 24 (General Securities Principal Qualification Examination) qualifications.

On the Web:  https://climateenergyfinance.org/

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tim-buckley-0a654313/

Geek rating: 7

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[Episode #234] – Transition in Australia 2024

Oct 2 2024

Mini Episode

In August 2024, Chris commenced a three-month research trip across Australia and New Zealand to explore their unique challenges and opportunities in the energy transition, and to conduct interviews with the people involved. This episode kicks off a miniseries based on those travels.

We start by speaking with Giles Parkinson, a journalist for more than 40 years who has arguably covered Australia’s energy transition more thoroughly and consistently than anyone else. Giles is the founder and editor of Renew Economy and the co-host of the weekly Energy Insiders Podcast as well as the founder of two other websites: One Step Off The Grid, which provides information to consumers contemplating what they can do to support the energy transition, and The Driven, which is billed as “Australia’s most-trusted and well-read electric vehicle news site.”

In this roughly 90-minute conversation, we frame up the big picture on Australia’s energy transition, including the major themes and vectors of change. We discuss several significant energy transition projects as well as the politics of the energy transition in Australia, including the roles of various government agencies.

Guest:

Giles Parkinson is founder and editor of Renew Economy, and is also the founder of One Step Off The Grid and founder/editor of the EV-focused The Driven. He is the co-host of the weekly Energy Insiders Podcast. Giles has been a journalist for more than 40 years and is a former business and deputy editor of the Australian Financial Review.

On Twitter: @GilesParkinson

On LinkedIn: Giles Parkinson

On the Web:  Giles’ page at Renew Economy

Geek rating: 6

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[Episode #233] – Ending the Monopoly Utility

Sep 18 2024

Mini Episode

Can the energy transition happen fast enough if investor-owned utilities (IOUs) continue to operate the US grid under a regulated monopoly business model?

Our guest today says no.

These profit-driven utilities have used their monopoly status to protect their market position and undermine the energy transition. Their control over generation, transmission and distribution systems allows them to fend off competition and slow down progress toward a cleaner energy future.

That’s why John Farrell of the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR) argues in a recent report that it's time to break up these utility monopolies, shifting grid ownership and control to the public. In this episode, we discuss how today’s dominant monopoly utility model arose, why it persists, how it is an impediment to the energy transition, and what can be done to reform the utility business so that it serves the public, and not the other way around.

Guest:

John Farrell is a co-director of the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR) and directs its Energy Democracy Initiative. For the past 18 years he has promoted and written extensively on the benefits of local ownership of decentralized renewable energy. He also hosts the Local Energy Rules podcast and is a frequent conference speaker.

On Twitter: @johnffarrell

On Mastodon: @johnfarrell

On the Web:  John’s page on the ISLR website

Geek rating: 5

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[Episode #232] – Smart Meters and Appliances

Sep 4 2024

Mini Episode

Two decades ago, there was a surge of interest to make appliances, buildings, and utility meters smarter. Startups emerged to explore ways to monitor and manage electricity usage and optimize grid power, aiming to better align with the increasing supply of variable renewable energy.

At the same time, utilities began rolling out millions of so-called smart meters, promising to reduce costs for ratepayers. This advanced meter infrastructure would provide the information needed to use less electricity during peak times - shifting consumption to periods when renewable generation was abundant and prices were low.

However, the promise of a "smart" future didn't exactly happen as expected, with many efforts fizzling out.

Now, with the advent of new technologies, making buildings and appliances smarter and more grid-interactive seems more achievable than ever. This shift can lower costs for everyone and make the grid more responsive to variable sources of renewable energy.

But to achieve this goal, we'll need utility reform, proactive regulators, and leadership at the federal level. In this two-hour episode, we discuss the challenges that have held back the “smart home” vision with Mission:data founder Michael Murray. Michael has been on the front lines of this effort for 20 years, and has some clear ideas about what it will take to overcome the hurdles and turn this vision into a reality.

Guest:

Michael Murray is Mission:data’s co-founder and President since 2013. In 2004, he co-founded Lucid, an energy management software company serving commercial building owners. He made the product called “Building Dashboard,” one of the first real-time displays of energy usage on the web. He has twenty years of experience with building automation, energy management, metering and public utility regulation.

On Twitter: @mission_data

On the Web: Mission:data Coalition

Geek rating: 9

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[Episode #231] – Five Times Faster

Aug 21 2024

Mini Episode

Why have our climate policies failed to significantly reduce carbon emissions? What new strategies could help us decarbonize the global energy system five times faster — as is needed to avoid the worst climate scenarios?

Our guest in this episode believes he has some answers to these questions.

Simon Sharpe has been personally involved in the crafting of climate policy in the UK for over a decade. He designed and led flagship international campaigns for climate policy in 2020-2021, when the UK hosted COP26, and has held key roles in the UK Government, including as head of a private office to a minister of energy and climate change. His diplomatic experience includes postings in China and India. Currently, he is Director of Economics for the Climate Champions Team and a Senior Fellow at the World Resources Institute. Simon has published influential academic papers and created groundbreaking international initiatives in climate change risk assessment, economics, policy, and diplomacy.

In his 2023 book, Five Times Faster—Rethinking the Science, Economics, and Diplomacy of Climate Change, Simon lays out why the institutions of science, economics, and climate diplomacy that should be helping us are holding us back. Chapter by chapter, he forensically analyzes why so many of our climate policies have failed to produce the desired results, demonstrating how science is pulling its punches, diplomacy is picking the wrong battles, and economics is fighting for the wrong side. More importantly, he outlines how to develop alternative policies that could actually work.

Guest:

Simon Sharpe is Director of Economics for the Climate Champions Team and a Senior Fellow at the World Resources Institute. He designed and led flagship international campaigns of the UK’s Presidency of the UN climate change talks (COP26) in 2020-2021; worked as the head of private office to a minister of energy and climate change in the UK Government; and has served on diplomatic postings in China and India. He has published influential academic papers and created groundbreaking international initiatives in climate change risk assessment, economics, policy and diplomacy.

On the Web: fivetimesfaster.org

Geek rating: 6

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[Episode #230] – EV Charging Blues

Aug 7 2024

Mini Episode

The transition from oil-burning vehicles to electric vehicles (EVs) has hit a few speed bumps over the past year, sparking widespread media coverage, but not much insight. A confusing tangle of narratives has emerged: Are EV sales surging or stalling? What does it mean for Ford and GM to adopt Tesla’s charger connector when Elon Musk just laid off his entire charging network team? And if the new federal NEVI program is expanding public fast-charger networks, why are so many of those chargers broken?

In this comprehensive 2.5-hour episode, we untangle these narratives and bring some clarity to this ever-evolving picture.

Joining us for this conversation is Raj Diwan, an expert with many years of experience in trying to actually build and operate networks of high-speed public chargers. We take an exhaustive tour through the state of the EV charging business, including the costs and challenges of deploying and operating chargers; the changing standards for EV charging cable connectors; the implications of Elon Musk’s recent decisions about Tesla’s charging network; the various business model challenges for EV charging network operators; the challenges that utilities have in providing power to the chargers; the varying costs of charging for EV drivers; the state of the federal NEVI grant funding program; and the state of the EV market.

Guest:

Rajiv (Raj) Diwan has been a car guy since birth. As founder of the transportation advisory firm, EV Pathway, Raj works to ensure a seamless shift to EVs by addressing the needs of mass-market customers (not just early-adopters). Public fast charging is critical to that transition, and his work addresses key gaps in DCFC reliability, accessibility, and affordability.

As an E-Mobility and Utilities professional with over 18 years of experience, Raj is an SME on best practices across public charging customer experience, reliability, and asset management.

Raj is focused on helping clients navigate the complexities of deploying public fast charging by either welcoming a 3rd party CPO to own and operate on a site hosts property, or helping new players become an owner/operator themselves.

On LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/rajiv-diwan-evpathway

On the Web:  www.evpathway.com

Geek rating: 7

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[Episode #229] – US Distributed Solar Potential

Jul 24 2024

Mini Episode

What is the full potential for distributed solar power in the US?

Many models have been developed to explore how a decarbonized US energy system could look, consistently finding that solar power would be the dominant source of electricity. Yet, we don’t really know the full potential for distributed solar. Even the term “distributed solar” isn’t very well-defined, potentially referring to many different kinds of solar power installations.

In today’s conversation, we review the available estimates for small rooftop and ground-mounted systems typically found on buildings, solar panels on canopies over parking lots, and innovative floating solar arrays over bodies of freshwater. Additionally, we explore emerging options such as installations on brownfield sites, agricultural lands, and alongside roadways.

Then we add it all up to see how big of a role distributed solar could actually play in a fully decarbonized US electricity system—with a surprisingly large result! But you’ll have to be a premium member and listen to the end to find out what it is.

In this episode, we are joined by Robert Margolis, a Senior Energy Analyst with the Strategic Energy Analysis Center at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (or NREL), which is part of the US Department of Energy. With more than 20 years of focused research on solar in the US, and his deep familiarity with energy technology and policy and energy-economic-environmental modeling, he is one of the top experts on the potential for distributed solar in the US.

Guest:

Robert Margolis is a Senior Energy Analyst in NREL’s Strategic Energy Analysis Center. Since joining NREL in 2003, he has served as key advisor to the U.S. DOE’s Solar Energy Technologies Office. In this role he has helped to define and carry out a broad analytical agenda focused on examining the potential for and challenges related to wide-spread adoption of solar energy. He led the Solar Futures Study (2021), the On the Path to SunShot Study (2016), and the SunShot Vision Study (2021). His main research interests include energy technology and policy; research, development, and demonstration policy; and energy-economic-environmental modeling.

On the Web:  Robert’s page at NREL

Geek rating: 4

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[Episode #228] – Public Persuasion

Jul 10 2024

Full Episode

Most climate communicators emphasize the risk of climate change, in the belief that if only people understood how dangerous it is, they would do something about it.

But what if terrifying messages about rising sea levels and life-threatening weather events have the opposite effect? What if they only serve to turn people off, rather than motivate them to act?

And what kinds of messages do resonate with people and get them interested in taking action on climate and participating in the energy transition?

In this episode, we are joined by the Jessica Lu, the Associate Director of Strategy and Analytics with Potential Energy’s Insights Lab. Her team has used established market research techniques to test various messages to unearth what motivates humans to care about climate change. The insights she shares with us are simultaneously surprising and obvious, suggesting much more successful strategies for climate communications.

Because we feel that this information is critically important for all climate communicators to understand, we decided to make this episode one of our occasional lagniappe shows and put it in front of the paywall so that subscribers and nonsubscribers alike can enjoy it. So, nonsubscribers, now you can see what you’ve been missing! And we hope you will all share this episode widely with your friends and colleagues.

Guest:

Jessica Lu is Associate Director of Strategy and Analytics and leads Potential Energy’s Insights Lab. She leads teams that execute hundreds of message tests and focus groups and perform in-market measurement analytics to unearth what motivates humans to care about climate change.

Prior to PE, Jessica was an analyst at the Draper Richards Kaplan Foundation, supporting entrepreneurs building innovative, non-profit startups and social enterprises to solve gnarly social issues. She graduated from Princeton University with a degree in Civil and Environmental Engineering.

On Twitter: @pe_coalition

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/potential-energy-coalition/

On the Web:  https://potentialenergycoalition.org/

Geek rating: 1

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[Episode #227] – FERC Order 1920

Jun 26 2024

Mini Episode

The United States faces significant challenges in deploying enough transmission capacity and interconnections to support a modernized grid. Approximately 2.5 TW of new clean wind, solar, and storage capacity is currently on hold — twice the country’s current generating capacity of 1.28 TW. These projects are just awaiting transmission interconnections. Building the necessary infrastructure and securing these interconnections would revolutionize the U.S. power grid, likely eliminating all fossil-fuel (and eventually nuclear) generation.

However, investor-owned utilities have historically obstructed the development of new transmission capacity, both within and between their regional transmission grids. In 2011, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) sought to address these barriers with Order 1000, but utilities resisted, attempting to undermine and weaken the order. Despite some progress within Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs), no new transmission projects outside of these RTOs have been realized under Order 1000. This bottleneck has hindered the energy transition and state-level goals to expand clean energy use and phase out fossil-fueled power under their own renewable portfolio standards.

In response, FERC introduced Order 1920 in May this year, aimed at compelling utilities and regional transmission organizations to undertake long-term regional planning of transmission systems.

In this episode, we are rejoined by Ari Peskoe, Director of the Electricity Law Initiative at Harvard Law School, to walk us through the history of Order 1000 and to explain the implications of the new Order 1920. He’s one of the top scholars in the country on transmission regulation and we’re very pleased that he was willing to share his expertise with us once again.

This 80-minute discussion gets quite technical, but after listening to it you will begin to see a clear picture of a future in which new transmission lines unlock the potential of the wind and solar resources in the US and help us completely decarbonize the power grid.

Guest:

Ari Peskoe is Director of the Electricity Law Initiative at Harvard Law School.  He has written extensively about electricity regulation, on issues ranging from rooftop solar to Constitutional challenges to states’ energy laws.

On Twitter: @AriPeskoe

On the Web: Electricity Law Initiative at Harvard Law School

Geek rating: 9

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[Episode #226] – Load Growth Shenanigans

Jun 12 2024

Mini Episode

In recent months, reports have circulated that data centers, cryptocurrency miners, and AI technologies are suddenly increasing electricity demand, allegedly straining power grids. These declarations have prompted calls for the hasty approval of new gas-fired power plants to bolster generation capacity. But should we believe these claims?

We remain skeptical.

As the energy transition progresses towards "electrifying everything," there is little doubt that significant loads will transfer to the power grid. However, we have yet to see evidence that this shift is outpacing grid capacity. In fact, we have good reason to believe that much of the projected demand has been overestimated - in part because utilities have a long history of projecting demand that never materialized.

In today’s episode, we try to separate power demand fact from fiction with Mike O’Boyle, Senior Director of Electricity at Energy Innovation, a San Francisco-based energy transition think tank. Over the past several months, Mike and his colleagues have been urging regulators to resist the panicked rush towards new gas infrastructure and consider cleaner alternatives. We’ll explore the origins of the alleged cloud electricity demand surge narratives, assess the real picture of modern computing demand, and discuss viable solutions. As we will uncover, much of the prevailing discourse is not about a genuine power shortage but rather the efforts of certain political figures to boost tax revenues, often at the expense of public welfare — and is ultimately a lapse in regulatory oversight meant to protect the public interest.

Guest:

Mike O’Boyle is Senior Director, Electricity at Energy Innovation. He directs the firm’s Electricity program which focuses on designing and quantifying the impacts of policies needed to affordably and reliably decarbonize the U.S. electricity grid. He has worked with Congressional staff and U.S. state policymakers—including those in California, Hawaii, Minnesota, New York,  and Oregon — to help improve the link between public policy goals and the motivations of electric utilities. He is a frequent contributor to Forbes, and has written for Canary Media, The Hill, New York Times, and Utility Dive, and has authored reports covering a wide range of power sector topics. Mike graduated cum laude from Arizona State University Sandra Day O’Connor College of Law, where he focused on energy and international law. He also has a B.A. from Vanderbilt University in philosophy and Asian Studies, with a minor in economics.

On Twitter: @oboylemm

On the Web:  Mike’s page at Energy Innovation

Geek rating: 6

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