When we first created the Energy Transition Show in 2015, solar generated about 250 terawatt hours worldwide. That was roughly as much electricity as California used the same year. A decade later, as the energy transition moved ahead, solar generates more than ten times as much, matching the European Union's total electricity demand.
Though sometimes progress can seem like it isn't happening nearly fast enough. Renewables only edged past coal in 2025, by supplying around a third of global electricity. But everything built over those ten years matters now more than ever. As we reviewed on Episode #272, soon after the US and Israel attacked Iran, the Strait of Hormuz closed, and the aftermath has created a persistent disruption in global energy flows that sent oil, gas and diesel prices surging. Ember's Global Electricity Review, which we covered with Nic Fulghum on Episode #274, found that the growth in solar generation in 2025 alone could displace gas-fired electricity equal to all the LNG exported through the strait that year. Without it, this crisis would be far harder to weather against the reality of constrained fossil fuel supplies.
For decades, forecasts for where the energy transition would be by now kept coming in low. Researchers from the LUT University team featured on Episode #95 went back through the International Energy Agency's World Energy Outlook reports and found they consistently underestimated solar. The IEA's most ambitious scenario from 2022 had annual solar installations peaking at 657 gigawatts in 2040. By SolarPower Europe's count, the world installed more than that in 2025.
This is the first in a new documentary series, built from our past episodes, featuring interviews Chris Nelder recorded while the future was still unfolding, often years ahead of the headlines. We start with Episode #200, where Canary Media's Jeff St. John co-hosted. They remembered how bold a name like "Energy Transition Show" seemed back in 2015. Were the forecasters just being too cautious, or were their methods off?
This year, some are projecting solar installations will fall for the first time in more than twenty years. What should forecasts like that tell us about the road ahead?
Featured in this episode, in the order they first appear:
- Jeff St. John, Director of News and Special Projects at Canary Media, in conversation with Chris on Episode #200 (2023)
- Ryan Wiser, Senior Scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, on Episode #30 (2016)
- Kingsmill Bond, Energy Strategist at Carbon Tracker, on Episode #108 (2019)
- Matthew Ives, economist at Oxford's Institute for New Economic Thinking, on Episode #159 (2021)
- Doyne Farmer, Director of Complexity Economics at Oxford's Institute for New Economic Thinking, on Episode #239 (2024)
- Gregory Nemet, Professor at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, on Episode #178 (2022)
- Christophe McGlade, Head of the Energy Supply Unit at the International Energy Agency, on Episode #215 (2024)
- Tim Gould, co-head of the World Energy Outlook at the International Energy Agency, on Episode #215 (2024) and Episode #148 (2021)
- Nic Fulghum, Senior Analyst at Ember, on Episode #254 (2025)
Jeff St. John is director of news and special projects at Canary Media. He covers the intersection of technological, economic and regulatory issues influencing the global transition to low-carbon energy in the electricity, transportation and building sectors. He is the former managing editor and senior grid edge editor of Greentech Media, and he previously reported for The Fresno Bee, the Tri-City Herald and the Anchorage Daily News.
On Twitter: @jeffsaintjohn
On the Web: Jeff’s archive at Canary Media
Dr. Ryan Wiser is a Senior Scientist and Group Leader in the Electricity Markets and Policy Group at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Ryan leads and conducts research and analysis on renewable energy, including on the planning, design, and evaluation of renewable energy policies; on the costs, benefits, and market potential of renewable electricity sources; on electric grid operations and infrastructure impacts; and on public acceptance and deployment barriers. Ryan holds a B.S. in Civil Engineering from Stanford University and an M.S. and Ph.D. in Energy and Resources from the University of California, Berkeley.
On Twitter: @BerkeleyLabEMP
On the Web: Ryan Wiser page at LBNL
Kingsmill Bond, CFA is an energy strategist for Ember. He has worked as a financial market analyst and strategist for over 30 years, including for Deutsche Bank and Citibank in London, Hong Kong and Moscow.
He believes that the electrotech revolution is the most important driver of financial markets and geopolitics in the modern era. He joined Ember from RMI in 2025 to write analysis on the impact of the energy transition on financial markets, with a focus on the exponential growth of electrotech and the disruption to the fossil fuel sector. Prior to RMI, Kingsmill worked at Carbon Tracker.
On Twitter: @KingsmillBond
On the Web: Kingsmill’s page at Ember
Dr. Matthew Ives is an economist and complex systems modeler at Oxford University currently researching sensitive intervention points for accelerating progress towards the post-carbon transition.
On Twitter: @mat_ives
On the Web: Matt’s page at the Smith School
Doyne Farmer is Director of the Complexity Economics programme at the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, Baillie Gifford Professor of Complex Systems Science at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford, External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute, and Chief Scientist at Macrocosm.
His current research is in economics, including agent-based modeling, financial instability and technological progress. He was a founder of Prediction Company, a quantitative automated trading firm that was sold to UBS in 2006. His past research includes complex systems, dynamical systems theory, time series analysis and theoretical biology. His book, Making Sense of Chaos: A Better Economics for a Better World, was published in 2024.
During the 1980s he was an Oppenheimer Fellow and the founder of the Complex Systems Group at Los Alamos National Laboratory. While a graduate student in the 1970s he built the first wearable digital computer, which was successfully used to predict the game of roulette.
On Bluesky: @doynefarmer.bsky.social
On the Web: https://www.doynefarmer.com/
Gregory Nemet is a Professor at the University of Wisconsin–Madison in the La Follette School of Public Affairs. He teaches courses in energy systems analysis, policy analysis, and international environmental policy. Nemet’s research focuses on understanding the process of technological change and the ways in which public policy can affect it. He received his doctorate in energy and resources from the University of California, Berkeley. His A.B. is in geography and economics from Dartmouth College. He received an Andrew Carnegie Fellowship in 2017 and used it to write a book on how solar PV provides a model for low carbon innovation.
On Twitter: @GregNemet
On the Web: Greg’s website | Greg’s Google Scholar page
Christophe McGlade is the Head of the Energy Supply Unit and leads the energy supply and climate analysis for the World Energy Outlook series. He was a lead author for the recent IEA special reports on Net Zero by 2050: A roadmap for the global energy sector; Sustainable Recoveries; and the oil and gas industry in energy transitions.
On Twitter: @TofMcGlade
On the Web: Christophe’s page at IEA
Tim Gould is co-head of the World Energy Outlook series at the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA). He designs and directs the work together with the IEA’s Chief Energy Modeller and contributes to the Outlook as a principal author. He also oversees the Agency’s analysis of energy investment and finance, including the World Energy Investment series. Tim has been at the IEA since 2008, and joined initially as a specialist on Russian and Caspian energy before going across to join the World Energy Outlook team under the (then) Chief Economist, Fatih Birol, who is now the IEA’s Executive Director. Before IEA, he worked on European and Eurasian energy issues in Brussels and also spent ten years working in Eastern Europe, primarily in Ukraine. He studied at Oxford University and Johns Hopkins SAIS.
On Twitter: @tim_gould_
On the Web: https://www.iea.org
Nicolas Fulghum is a Senior Energy and Climate Data Analyst at the global energy think Ember, and one of the lead authors of Ember’s flagship report – the Global Electricity Review.
On Bluesky: @nicolasfulghum.bsky.social
On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicolas-fulghum/
On Twitter: @nicolasfulghum
Recording date: September 18, 2026
Air date: September 29, 2026
Geek rating: 4