Champions of energy transition see it happening relatively quickly, emphasizing the advances that are being made in technologies, policy, and projects. While fossil fuel incumbents see a long, gradual process of energy transition, assuring us that demand for their products will remain strong for decades to come. So who’s right? Is energy transition going to be rapid, or gradual?
A new paper co-authored by Carbon Tracker, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, and the Rocky Mountain Institute contrasts these narratives and scenarios, and identifies some key distinguishing characteristics that can help us understand where they differ, as well as clarifying their underlying assumptions and perspectives, using those insights to inform our outlooks. In this episode, one of the authors from Carbon Tracker explains the analytical framework applied to these contrasting narratives, and shares his insights about the impact of the energy transition on financial markets, domestic politics and geopolitics, and how incumbents will have to navigate the new reality of climate change.
Kingsmill Bond, CFA is a Director and energy strategist at Ember. He has worked as a financial market analyst and strategist for over 30 years, including for Deutsche Bank and Citibank in London, Hong Kong and Moscow.
When he first appeared on the show in November 2019, Kingsmill was Energy Strategist at Carbon Tracker, the London-based clean energy think tank. He was still at Carbon Tracker when he returned in August 2021. By the time he came back with his frequent co-author Daan Walter in September 2025, he had joined Ember.
He believes that the electrotech revolution is the most important driver of financial markets and geopolitics in the modern era. He joined Ember from RMI in 2025 to write analysis on the impact of the energy transition on financial markets, with a focus on the exponential growth of electrotech and the disruption to the fossil fuel sector. Prior to RMI, Kingsmill worked at Carbon Tracker.
On Twitter: @KingsmillBond
On the Web: Kingsmill’s page at Ember
Recording date: October 8, 2019
Air date: November 13, 2019
Geek rating: 3