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[Episode #267] – Japan: Petrostate or Electrostate?
Depending on where you live, the energy transition might feel like it's stalling or accelerating faster than ever. Countries are sorting themselves into two camps: petrostates seeking to stay on the fossil fuel path, and electrostates racing toward renewables, batteries, EVs, and other "electrotech." Under Trump, the US is joining Russia and Saudi Arabia in the petrostate camp, while China is leading much of the rest of the world in the opposite direction by exporting electrotech to the developing world as well as developed countries that lack domestic fossil fuel resources.
But as countries follow different paths through the energy transition, where does that leave Japan? Importing 100% of its oil and gas means it ranks among the world's most energy-vulnerable nations. After the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant disaster in 2011, Japan has lost more than a decade to inaction, stuck between a public that no longer trusts nuclear power and a political establishment reluctant to abandon enormous sunk costs in nuclear capacity. Now Japan has reached a crossroads. It can side with the petrostates, go with the electrostates, or try to straddle the line between them.
To explore Japan's options, Chris interviewed Nobuo Tanaka, former Executive Director of the International Energy Agency from 2007 to 2011. Tanaka now chairs the steering committee of Japan's Innovation for Cool Earth Forum and advises Japanese and international companies on energy strategy.
In this conversation, we'll hear Tanaka's bold proposal for Japan, Korea, and China to set aside their historical conflicts and form an electrostate alliance, much as France and Germany did after World War II when they created the European Coal and Steel Community. Tanaka also makes the case for a new generation of nuclear technology as Japan's path forward, a view on which he and Chris differ, though they agree on the stakes. And, based on his long experience in international geopolitical forums, Tanaka explains how US policy is pushing Europe and much of the rest of the world closer to China.
Nobuo Tanaka is Executive Director Emeritus, The International Energy Agency (IEA).
Nobuo Tanaka is Chairman of the steering committee of the Innovation for Cool Earth Forum (ICEF), which was established by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2014. As Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) from 2007 to 2011, he initiated a collective release of oil stocks in June 2011. He began his career in 1973 in the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), and has served in a number of high-ranking positions, including Director- General of the Multilateral Trade System Department. He was deeply engaged in bilateral trade issues with the US as Minister for Industry, Trade and Energy at the Embassy of Japan, Washington DC. He has also served twice as Director for Science, Technology and Industry (DSTI) of the Paris-based international organization, OECD. As CEO of Tanaka Global Inc, he advises several Japanese and International companies.
Geek rating: 8