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[Episode #277] – Just Transition in South Africa

Jun 3 2026

Mini Episode

This is the third and final part of our miniseries about South Africa's energy transition, based on Chris' travels there in September and October of 2025. The first part was Episode #264, in which we heard how the end of apartheid precipitated reform of the country's energy systems. The second part was Episode #276, where we learned how South Africa is reforming its electricity system from a state-owned monopoly to a free market, and from coal to renewables.

South Africa has enough wind and solar resources and land to generate at least three times as much power as its entire annual load, but the country is still locked into its old coal-fired electricity grid. Market reform is the key to unlocking that potential.

In this episode, we'll hear how those reforms can help deliver a just transition for South Africa, the most economically unequal country in the world. Because there, the energy transition isn't only about cheap, clean power; it's also a driver of economic justice. Today, some of the poorest households pay up to three times the grid price for electricity drawn through informal connections, and formalizing that power is a chance to deliver cheaper, fairer access to those who need it most.

We'll also learn how utilities and regulators across sub-Saharan Africa are working to integrate unsanctioned, distributed solar and storage into their grids. In South Africa, roughly 60% of those systems were never reported to the utility, and in Kenya the figure is effectively 100%. The economics are hard to argue with: the $1.7 billion Africa spent on solar panels last year is already meeting more demand than the $20 billion a year it spends on diesel fuel, with more than 85% of it self-financed. That bottom-up adoption is now transforming energy systems not only in South Africa, but across the entire region.

Guest #1:

Dr. Joel Nana is a Fellow at the Energy for Growth Hub and a Senior Manager at Sustainable Energy Africa. His Africa-focused work spans grid integration of distributed energy resources, urban energy profiling, city-wide energy-systems modeling, and electric mobility, with capacity-building for policymakers woven into every project. Joel holds a PhD in Energy Systems Engineering at the University of Cape Town.

On LinkedIn

Guest #2:

Dr. Josh Dippenaar is a researcher and practitioner focused on DER grid integration in South Africa. He has published on rooftop PV economics, utility tariff design, interconnection policy, and electricity markets in the developing world. He is currently working on developing new markets with Mulilo, an Independent Power Producer (IPP) in Southern Africa. Previously, he was an energy engineer with Sustainable Energy Africa, and a senior engineer at the Centre for Renewable and Sustainable Energy Studies. He has a Masters of Engineering and a PhD in Electrical Engineering from Stellenbosch University.

On LinkedIn

Guest #3:

Dr Kenneth Creamer is an academic economist based at the University of the Witwatersrand.

Over the past 30 years, Creamer has published on macroeconomic policy and energy policy, in local and international academic journals and books.

Creamer is a member of South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s Economic Advisory Council as well as the advisory council of South Africa’s Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition.

In addition to his position at the University of the Witwatersrand, Creamer serves as a Director of Creamer Media, publisher of news and information platforms Engineering News, Mining Weekly and Polity.

On the web:

Guest #4:

Lebogang Mulaisi is the Executive Manager responsible for Policy and Research in the Presidential Climate Commission (PCC). She previously served on the commission as a commissioner representing labour and as Chief Operations Officer in the Secretariat. She was previously the head of policy at the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU), responsible for labour market policy and the just transition. Through engagements with labour unions, she has developed a blueprint for workers on the mechanisms to transition to a low carbon economy through collective bargaining.

Lebogang was an EXCO and MANCO member at the National Economic Development and Labour Council (NEDLAC). Lebogang has co-authored a chapter in Mistra’s book on a low-carbon future for South Africa. The chapter titled: Democratising a just transition in South Africa Identifies the labour movement as a key lever to build social movements around the concept of a radical vision for a just transition.

Lebogang holds a Master’s degree in Development Economics from the University of Johannesburg (2018) and is completing a PhD in Economics. Her area of focus is climate-induced structural change and its impacts on labour productivity.

On the Web: Profile of Lebogang Mulaisi at the National Youth Development Agency

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lebogang-mulaisi-a376324

Guest #5:

Dr. Mark Swilling is Distinguished Professor and Co-director of the Centre for Sustainability Transitions at Stellenbosch University. His latest book is The Age of Sustainability: Just Transitions in a Complex World (London and New York: Routledge, 2020). Together with Eve Annecke, he has co-authored, Just Transitions: Explorations of Sustainability in an Unfair World (Tokyo: United Nations University Press, 2012), co-edited with Adriana Allen and Andreas Lampis Untamed Urbanism (New York and London: Routledge, 2016), co-edited with Josephine Musango and Jeremy Wakeford Greening the South African Economy (Cape Town: Juta, 2016) and was the lead author with Ivor Chipkin et. al. of Shadow State: Politics of State Capture (Johannesburg: WITS Press, 2018). He is a member of UNEP’s International Resource Panel where he was the co-lead author of The Weight of Cities: Resource Requirements of Future Urbanization, published in 2018.

Mark was on the Board of the Development Bank of Southern Africa for nine years and until September 2023 where held the position of Chairperson of the Board. The President of South Africa appointed Mark as a member of the National Planning Commission (2022-2027). In 2024. he was appointed to the Board of the National Transmission Company of South Africa. He has been a visiting Professor at the universities of Sheffield and Utrecht, and Georgetown University in Washington D.C, and in 2018 was the Edward P. Bass Visiting Environmental Scholar at Yale University. As of 2023, he published 20 books, 86 book chapters, 66 peer reviewed articles, 56 reports, 143 presentations, 49 major research projects, and supervised 56 Master’s theses and 27 PhDs (six incomplete as of 2023). His private sector roles include Chair of the Board of Ekapa Energy (Pty) Ltd and Chair of the Board of Creation Capital Investments (Pty) Ltd.

On the Web: Mark’s website

Guest #6:

Dr. Megan Davies is an inter-disciplinary researcher at the Centre for Sustainability Transitions (CST) at Stellenbosch University in South Africa. She explores the governance, finance, and justice dimensions of infrastructure transitions in the global South, focussing on South Africa’s energy transition. She completed her PhD, South Africa’s contested transition to energy democracy – lessons and struggles emerging from the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme, which investigated the socio-economic and political ramifications of decentralised renewable energy infrastructure and used a transdisciplinary research methodology to explore this in the context of South Africa’s flagship renewable energy initiative. Megan’s PhD research provides the basis for her continued exploration of South Africa’s energy transition, with an awareness of the ongoing struggles to advance just, equitable and sustainable futures in the country.

Megan is also involved in the CST’s postgraduate programmes. As programme leader and co-convenor for the foundation and capstone modules for the PGDip in Sustainable Development, she is motivated to bridge research and teaching at the Centre by enlivening connections between CST’s transdisciplinary research and the range of modules on offer. In the teaching space, she is curious about education for sustainable development and how transformative learning might support sustainability transitions. In addition to the PGDip programme, she is a postgraduate supervisor of Master’s and PhD students, and in this context is interested in the role of embedded research and reflective practice to support knowledge co-production for sustainability.

On the Web: Megan’s page at Stellenbosch University

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/megan-davies-a81b9241/

Guest #7:

Megan Euston-Brown is the Director and Project Manager of Sustainable Energy Africa (SEA). Megan has worked in sustainable energy development since 2003, managing multi-year urban energy transition and climate response capacity building programs. This has included State of Energy reporting, city energy strategy development and climate action planning, cost of supply, tariffs and distribution sector reform, green building policy development, energy efficiency, energy poverty and just transition tracking. Megan is an experienced development facilitator and has worked extensively with local level energy data collection, policy and institutional development.

On LinkedIn

On X: @SEA_UrbanEnergy

Guest #8:

Dr Wikus Kruger is the Director of the Power Futures Lab at the University of Cape Town’s Graduate School of Business. He is a research lead and lecturer on power sector investment in sub-Saharan Africa. His research focuses on measures to accelerate investment, in particular into renewables, through structured procurement programmes such as auctions. Dr. Wikus Kruger has been working in the African energy sector for 14 years. He holds a PhD from UCT; an MSc from Antwerp University; and MPhil, BPhil and BA degrees from Stellenbosch University.

Geek rating: 7

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[Episode #276] – Electricity Reform in South Africa

May 20 2026

Mini Episode

This is the second part of a miniseries about South Africa's energy transition, based on Chris' travels there in September and October of 2025. The first part was Episode 264, in which we heard how the end of apartheid precipitated reform of the country's energy systems.

South Africa is arguably one of the most exciting places in the world to see the energy transition unfolding right now, because after nearly 150 years of relying almost exclusively on coal for its energy, it is finally implementing reforms that will allow its electricity system to integrate more renewables onto its grid.

Eskom, the state-owned monopoly, has owned and controlled the grid for over a century. Its aging coal fleet still provides around 80 percent of the country's electricity, even though solar power is now far cheaper, and it has been able to block new renewable projects because they threatened its coal business. But now Eskom is being broken up into separate units for generation, transmission, and distribution. And the country is launching its first wholesale electricity market — the South Africa Wholesale Electricity Market, or SAWEM — opening the door for renewables to compete with coal.

At the same time, there is also an enormous and growing informal supply in the form of distributed solar — enough to meet a quarter of the country's electricity demand. Many businesses and residents are installing their own solar and battery systems, often without any kind of permission from or notice to the utility. That is simultaneously creating an entirely new and complex sort of electricity system that's hard for utilities to manage, while also making the system far more resilient. In fact, distributed solar batteries are credited with putting an end to the "load shedding" blackouts that plagued customers for over 15 years.

Formally and informally, South Africa is rushing headlong from its coal-fired past and into the renewably powered future. Clean generation led by solar surged past 30 percent in late 2025, while coal fell to a record monthly low. South Africa's experiment in restructuring a vertically integrated, coal-dependent grid offers an early look at the politics, economics, and surprises that other markets will face as they take on their own transitions to renewables.

In this episode, we'll be hearing from experts who are closely involved with the electricity reforms in South Africa. In the next episode, we'll see how those reforms play an important role in delivering a just transition.

Guest #1:

Dr. Josh Dippenaar is a researcher and practitioner focused on DER grid integration in South Africa. He has published on rooftop PV economics, utility tariff design, interconnection policy, and electricity markets in the developing world. He is currently working on developing new markets with Mulilo, an Independent Power Producer (IPP) in Southern Africa. Previously, he was an energy engineer with Sustainable Energy Africa, and a senior engineer at the Centre for Renewable and Sustainable Energy Studies. He has a Masters of Engineering and a PhD in Electrical Engineering from Stellenbosch University.

On LinkedIn

Guest #2:

Keith Bowen is a power systems economist and Senior Manager: Market Operator at the National Transmission Company of South Africa (NTCSA) in the Eskom Transmission Division. He has extensive experience in energy economics and planning in the power sector, and is responsible for developing wholesale pricing mechanisms, supporting internal transfers within the vertically integrated utility, and payments to independent power producers. With the restructuring of Eskom, he is involved in developing future market mechanisms and trading arrangements between the transmission subsidiary and other industry participants. Keith has bachelor’s degrees in computer science and economics, and a master’s degree in economics from Witwatersrand (Wits) University.

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/keith-bowen-9674821a/

Guest #3:

Dr Kenneth Creamer is an academic economist based at the University of the Witwatersrand.

Over the past 30 years, Creamer has published on macroeconomic policy and energy policy, in local and international academic journals and books.

Creamer is a member of South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s Economic Advisory Council as well as the advisory council of South Africa’s Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition.

In addition to his position at the University of the Witwatersrand, Creamer serves as a Director of Creamer Media, publisher of news and information platforms Engineering News, Mining Weekly and Polity.

On the web:

Guest #4:

Lebogang Mulaisi is the Executive Manager responsible for Policy and Research in the Presidential Climate Commission (PCC). She previously served on the commission as a commissioner representing labour and as Chief Operations Officer in the Secretariat. She was previously the head of policy at the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU), responsible for labour market policy and the just transition. Through engagements with labour unions, she has developed a blueprint for workers on the mechanisms to transition to a low carbon economy through collective bargaining.

Lebogang was an EXCO and MANCO member at the National Economic Development and Labour Council (NEDLAC). Lebogang has co-authored a chapter in Mistra’s book on a low-carbon future for South Africa. The chapter titled: Democratising a just transition in South Africa Identifies the labour movement as a key lever to build social movements around the concept of a radical vision for a just transition.

Lebogang holds a Master’s degree in Development Economics from the University of Johannesburg (2018) and is completing a PhD in Economics. Her area of focus is climate-induced structural change and its impacts on labour productivity.

On the Web: Profile of Lebogang Mulaisi at the National Youth Development Agency

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lebogang-mulaisi-a376324

Guest #5:

Dr. Mark Swilling is Distinguished Professor and Co-director of the Centre for Sustainability Transitions at Stellenbosch University. His latest book is The Age of Sustainability: Just Transitions in a Complex World (London and New York: Routledge, 2020). Together with Eve Annecke, he has co-authored, Just Transitions: Explorations of Sustainability in an Unfair World (Tokyo: United Nations University Press, 2012), co-edited with Adriana Allen and Andreas Lampis Untamed Urbanism (New York and London: Routledge, 2016), co-edited with Josephine Musango and Jeremy Wakeford Greening the South African Economy (Cape Town: Juta, 2016) and was the lead author with Ivor Chipkin et. al. of Shadow State: Politics of State Capture (Johannesburg: WITS Press, 2018). He is a member of UNEP’s International Resource Panel where he was the co-lead author of The Weight of Cities: Resource Requirements of Future Urbanization, published in 2018.

Mark was on the Board of the Development Bank of Southern Africa for nine years and until September 2023 where held the position of Chairperson of the Board. The President of South Africa appointed Mark as a member of the National Planning Commission (2022-2027). In 2024. he was appointed to the Board of the National Transmission Company of South Africa. He has been a visiting Professor at the universities of Sheffield and Utrecht, and Georgetown University in Washington D.C, and in 2018 was the Edward P. Bass Visiting Environmental Scholar at Yale University. As of 2023, he published 20 books, 86 book chapters, 66 peer reviewed articles, 56 reports, 143 presentations, 49 major research projects, and supervised 56 Master’s theses and 27 PhDs (six incomplete as of 2023). His private sector roles include Chair of the Board of Ekapa Energy (Pty) Ltd and Chair of the Board of Creation Capital Investments (Pty) Ltd.

On the Web: Mark’s website

Guest #6:

Megan Euston-Brown is the Director and Project Manager of Sustainable Energy Africa (SEA). Megan has worked in sustainable energy development since 2003, managing multi-year urban energy transition and climate response capacity building programs. This has included State of Energy reporting, city energy strategy development and climate action planning, cost of supply, tariffs and distribution sector reform, green building policy development, energy efficiency, energy poverty and just transition tracking. Megan is an experienced development facilitator and has worked extensively with local level energy data collection, policy and institutional development.

On LinkedIn

On X: @SEA_UrbanEnergy

Guest #7:

Dr Wikus Kruger is the Director of the Power Futures Lab at the University of Cape Town’s Graduate School of Business. He is a research lead and lecturer on power sector investment in sub-Saharan Africa. His research focuses on measures to accelerate investment, in particular into renewables, through structured procurement programmes such as auctions. Dr. Wikus Kruger has been working in the African energy sector for 14 years. He holds a PhD from UCT; an MSc from Antwerp University; and MPhil, BPhil and BA degrees from Stellenbosch University.

Geek rating: 7

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[Episode #275] – The Cost of Delay

May 6 2026

Mini Episode

In mid-2026 we're experiencing the largest energy crisis the world has ever faced. The sudden and prolonged disappearance of one-fifth of the global supply of oil and LNG, set in motion by the Iran war we covered in Episode #272, has sent import costs soaring. World leaders are now confronting the risks of fossil fuel dependence as never before.

The high costs and outright physical shortages of oil and gas are driving inflation across the global economy. But that's not all. The crisis is also weakening currencies in importing economies, deepening their debt, stalling growth, and transferring wealth on an enormous scale. By 350.org's count, more than $150 billion has already moved from ordinary households into the balance sheets of oil and gas companies.

A new report from 350.org, Out of Pocket: How Delaying Global Fossil Fuel Phase Out is Draining Households and Economies, puts hard numbers on the price of delaying the energy transition. In today's conversation, we welcome the lead author, Clémence Dubois, Global Campaign Manager at 350.org, to share its findings. Clémence explains how the delay imposes opportunity costs, economic and environmental justice costs, and national security risks on importing countries. She makes the case for why this crisis, unlike the six previous oil shocks, might be the final nail in the coffin of the world's dependence on imported oil and gas. And we'll see how many countries are already switching to domestic renewables and electrification — because for them, delay is no longer an option.

Guest:

Clémence Dubois is Head of Global Campaigns at 350.org, an international NGO that uses online campaigns, grassroots mobilizations, and mass actions to oppose fossil fuel projects, deprive multinationals contributing to climate change of their financial resources, and mobilize for a just transition. A key figure in civil society for the past ten years, she holds an MSc in International Regulation and Environmental Policy from the London School of Economics and one in Political Sciences from Sciences Po Lille.

On Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/350.org

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/environmentalpolicy/

On the Web:  http://350.org/

Geek rating: 5

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[Episode #274] – Global Electricity Review 2026

Apr 22 2026

Mini Episode

For years, transition skeptics have argued that what's really happening globally is "energy addition," where renewables are piling on top of fossil fuels rather than pushing them aside. The data that's just landing from 2025 finally puts that argument to rest.

For the first time, global electricity generation from fossil fuels fell, not because of a pandemic shutdown, recession, or unusual weather, but simply because renewables grew faster than demand. Power-sector emissions dropped along with it, also a first. Solar recorded the largest single-year increase of any electricity source on record, with the exception of coal's rebound as the world re-opened after 2020. And renewable generation surpassed coal in the modern era for the first time.

These are just a few of the important findings in Ember's Global Electricity Review 2026. To unpack what they mean, and what they don't, we welcome back to the program Nicolas Fulghum, Senior Energy and Climate Data Analyst at Ember and one of the report's lead authors. Nic was last on the show in Episode #254 reviewing the 2025 edition of this report, which became our most popular episode of the year, and which we re-released without paywall in Episode #266.

In today's show, we'll see how the structural decline in fossil generation, long-anticipated by transitionistas, finally arrived. We'll hear why solar's growth rate refuses to slow even as the technology matures. And we'll explore how the second fossil fuel shock of the decade, this time from the Iran war we covered in Episode #272, is pushing more countries to accelerate their move off imported fuels. The energy transition isn't coming. It's here, and it's getting more unstoppable every year.

Guest:

Nicolas Fulghum is a Senior Energy and Climate Data Analyst at the global energy think Ember, and one of the lead authors of Ember’s flagship report – the Global Electricity Review.

On Bluesky: @nicolasfulghum.bsky.social

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicolas-fulghum/

On Twitter: @nicolasfulghum

Geek rating: 8

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[Episode #273] – Solar and Batteries Can Power the World

Apr 8 2026

Mini Episode

In the sunniest parts of the world, solar and batteries are already the cheapest way to build new power generation capacity on an unsubsidized full system cost basis, and that cost advantage is expanding quickly.

By the end of this decade, solar and batteries could affordably supply 90% of electricity for most of the world's population at less than €80/MWh—that's a full system cost, including fuel-based backup, for about US 8.7¢/kWh. While this is already cheaper than building a new gas-fired grid, given that European gas prices spiked to ten times their normal level during the 2022 energy crisis and remain volatile today, the gap is only likely to widen.

But beyond 2030—well within the lifetime of any new power generation system built today—solar and batteries will almost certainly be the cheapest, most reliable, and least volatile way to expand a power grid. Doubling down on fossil gas generation under these conditions, as many governments are contemplating, would be a terrible mistake, both economically and geopolitically.

That is the central finding of a model developed by Tom Brown, professor for Digital Transformation in Energy Systems at the Technical University of Berlin. Tom also led the development of the open-source toolbox Python for Power System Analysis (PyPSA), and based this analysis on a blog post titled "Solar and batteries can power the world." If you doubt the conclusions, you can run the model and test the assumptions yourself.

In today's episode, we'll dig into how the model works, what happens when you add wind to the mix, and why battery costs could halve again by 2050, making solar-dominated grids dramatically cheaper than anything we can build with gas. We'll also examine the land question and find that powering the world with solar would take just 0.3% of global land, a fraction of what we currently devote to livestock. And we'll revisit how to meet that last 10% of demand, a topic we last explored in Episode #188 with Paul Denholm of NREL, and hear Tom's case for methanol as a surprisingly practical backup fuel.

Guest:

Dr. Tom Brown is professor for “Digital Transformation in Energy Systems” at the Technical University of Berlin. His group researches future pathways for the energy system, with a particular focus on revealing the trade-offs between energy resources, network expansion, flexibility and public acceptance of new infrastructure. His recent research has emphasised the need for an integrated approach to planning for electricity, heat, and molecules as we head to a net-zero economy. Tom is a strong supporter of openness and transparency in research data and software, with the goal to enable a vigorous public debate on the trade-offs necessary to reach climate neutrality. He led the development of the widely-used open-source toolbox Python for Power System Analysis (PyPSA). Before joining TU Berlin in 2021, he led a Helmholtz Young Investigator Group at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology. He did his BA and MMath at Cambridge University and his PhD at Queen Mary, University of London.

On the Web:

Personal blog

Department of Digital Transformation in Energy Systems at the Technical University of Berlin

On LinkedIn: Tom Brown

On Bluesky: @nworbmot.bsky.social

On Mastodon: @nworbmot@mastodon.social

Geek rating: 8

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[Episode #272] – Global Energy Crisis 2026

Mar 25 2026

Full Episode

The attacks on Iran by US and Israel have touched off a regional conflict that has resulted in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil and LNG transits, and is doing severe, ongoing damage to oil and gas infrastructure throughout the Persian Gulf. We are now in a new global energy crisis.

IEA coordinated the largest release ever of oil from strategic reserves to calm the oil market, but traders shrugged it off and oil prices kept climbing, because a physical disruption at this scale is totally unprecedented. Even so, veteran oil traders and journalists have warned that the world is still not recognizing the depth of the actual peril it's in. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol called this crisis "the greatest global energy security threat in history" and said, "I believe the world has not yet well understood the depth of the energy security challenge we are facing." IEA also admonished governments to take steps to conserve fuel, including urging their citizens to drive more slowly, work from home, take public transport and car sharing, avoid air travel, and switch to electric cooking. The last time IEA called for such wide-ranging demand reduction was in the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo.

The consequences are already cascading well beyond oil: Fertilizer prices have surged 25 to 40 percent, and a similar increase in the price of diesel will flow through to essentially everything, causing "fossilflation." In response, governments across Asia have begun curbing consumption: Bangladesh is shutting universities early to save power, Thailand and Vietnam are pushing civil servants to work from home, and Myanmar has imposed fuel rationing. And that's just the beginning.

To help us understand this rapidly-worsening reality, we are joined by Rory Johnston, one of the most widely cited independent oil market analysts, founder of the Commodity Context newsletter, and host of the Oil Ground Up podcast. Johnston, who typically avoids alarmist price calls, says $200 a barrel minimum is now on the table. We discuss why the world's emergency supply tools aren't working, where oil prices could go from here, and why this crisis has thrown the world into uncharted territory.

It could take the world years to recover from this…but in that interim, it's likely to accelerate the energy transition.

To help everyone cut through the fog of war and disinformation, and understand what is happening and how it will affect them, we are publishing this episode without a paywall. So please share it widely.

Guest:

Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, host of the Oil Ground Up podcast, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines.

He is a leading voice on oil market analysis, advising institutional investors, global policy makers, and corporate decision makers. His views are regularly quoted in major international media including the Financial Times, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, Reuters, BNN Bloomberg, CBC, and Financial Post, and he frequently appears on numerous market and industry podcasts (e.g., Bloomberg’s Odd Lots, Hidden Forces, etc.).

Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank where he set the bank’s energy and metals price forecasts, advised the bank’s executives and clients, and sat on the bank’s senior credit committee for commodity-exposed sectors.

On the Web:  Commodity Context

Podcast: Oil Ground Up podcast

On Twitter: @Rory_Johnston

On Bluesky: @roryjohnston.bsky.social

On LinkedIn: Rory Johnston

Geek rating: 8

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[Episode #271] – China Update 2026

Mar 11 2026

Mini Episode

China's total CO2 emissions went flat and slowly started declining almost two years ago, but you probably wouldn't know it from reading the news about how its pipeline of coal power plant projects surged to a record high in 2025.

Similarly, recent data shows that China's coal power output fell by 1% in 2025, even as it built more coal plants than it had in a decade.

These kinds of conundrums are typical for China, with its complex interaction of economic forces and top-down state planning. But once you understand what's driving them, it all makes sense—just not a Western economic kind of sense.

To help us untangle this picture, we welcome back Lauri Myllyvirta, co-founder and lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), who last joined us in Episode #138, all the way back in 2021. We were overdue for an update.

In this episode, we dig into this coal conundrum—why China added 78 GW of new coal capacity in 2025, more than India built in an entire decade, even as customers pay $14 billion a year in capacity payments to coal plants that may not even run. We look at the 315 GW of solar and 120 GW of wind China added last year, and how 75 GW of new storage is helping to displace coal power. And we discuss why China's clean energy investments now make up more than a third of its GDP growth—without them, 2025 growth would have been 3.5% instead of 5%.

Although its fleet of coal power plants continues to grow, there is good news here. Because as the largest energy consumer in the world, China's declining emissions mean emissions are declining globally.

Guest:

Lauri Myllyvirta is the lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). Lauri has over 10 years’ experience as an air pollution and climate expert. He has led numerous research projects on air pollution, assessing air quality and health impacts of energy policies, including more than a dozen modeling studies of the air quality and health impacts of coal-fired power plants. This research has been published and utilized in numerous countries in East Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, Europe, Turkey, South Africa and others. Lauri has also contributed to numerous publications around energy solutions and air pollution and is asked frequently to attend seminars and conferences as an expert speaker. He served as a member of the Technical Working Group on regulating emissions from large combustion plants in the EU and currently serves as a member of the expert panel on regulating SO2 emissions in South Africa.

On Bluesky: @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social

On Twitter: @laurimyllyvirta

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lauri-myllyvirta-3164703b/

On the Web:  Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) | Lauri’s page at CarbonBrief

Geek rating: 7

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[Episode #270] – View from the Energy Transitions Commission

Feb 25 2026

Mini Episode

Both the IEA and BNEF now project that current policies put us on track for roughly 2.5°C of warming. Some voices, like Daniel Yergin and Bill Gates, argue we should accept that trajectory and focus only on the technologies that are already winning. But even 2.5°C is still much too high. We can and must do better.

To help us take stock of the global energy transition in today's conversation, we are fortunate to be joined by Lord Adair Turner, co-chair of the Energy Transitions Commission (ETC), headquartered in London. The Commission is a global coalition of major power and industrial companies, investors, environmental NGOs, and experts working on achievable pathways to limit global warming while stimulating economic development and social progress. Lord Turner chaired the UK Climate Change Committee from 2008 to 2012, chairs insurance group Chubb Europe, and is a crossbench (non-partisan) member of the House of Lords.

We discuss how the transition is reshaping geopolitics, why the ETC's forecasts for green hydrogen have been cut roughly in half, and what Europe's green industrial policy (including its carbon border adjustment mechanism) needs to get right. We explore the roles of China and the UK in mobilizing capital for the developing world, how the UK has achieved a 75% decarbonization of its power sector in just 14 years, and what Turner calls 'double banking' — the core challenge of the mid-transition, where we're paying to build new energy systems while the old ones can't yet be switched off.

Turner makes the case that well below 2°C is still achievable, but only if we return to the climate imperative alongside the technological opportunity.

Guest:

Lord Adair Turner chairs the Energy Transitions Commission, a global coalition of major power and industrial companies, investors, environmental NGOs and experts working out achievable pathways to limit global warming to below 2˚C by 2040 while stimulating economic development and social progress.

In addition, he is chairman of insurance group Chubb Europe as well as of Oaknorth Bank (a UK start-up lending money to small and medium companies); he is a board member of battery production company AESC Japan; and Advisor to Watershed Technologies Inc. since 2023.

Lord Turner chaired the UK’s Financial Services Authority from 2008 to 2013, overseeing the UK’s policy and regulatory response to the Global Financial Crisis and  playing a lead role in the post crisis redesign of global banking and shadow banking regulation.

During his public policy career, he was Director General of the Confederation of British Industry (1995-2000); chaired the UK Low Pay Commission (2002-2006); the Pensions Commision (2003-2006); and the UK Climate Change Committee (2008-2012) an independent body to advise the UK Government on tackling climate change. The recommendations set out in their first report “Building a low-carbon economy” were adopted in 2009. He became a cross bench member of the House of Lords in 2006.

Amongst his business roles, Lord Turner was at McKinsey & Co (1982-1995) and has served in several Non-Executive Directorships across a wide range of financial, business and not-for-profit boards, such as Merrill Lynch Europe (2000-2006), Standard Chartered plc (2006-2008), Prudential (2015-2019), Overseas Development Institute (2007-20200, Save the Children (2006-2008).

Lord Turner is the author of “Between Debt and the Devil” (Princeton 2015), and Economics after the Crisis (MIT 2012). He makes regular contributions in the printed press, in the UK and abroad.

He is a Trustee Emeritus of the British Museum, honorary fellow of The Royal Society, and received an Honorary Degree from Cambridge University in 2017.

Lord Turner has an MA in History (First class with Distinction) and an MA in Economics (First Class) from Gonville and Caius College, Cambridge University.

On X: @AdairTurnerUK

Energy Transitions Commission on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/energy-transitions-commission/

On the Web: Energy Transitions Commission

Geek rating: 6

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[Episode #269] – Trump’s War on the Energy Transition

Feb 11 2026

Mini Episode

In the first year of his second term, President Donald Trump waged an all-out war on the energy transition. His administration canceled hundreds of projects created under the Inflation Reduction Act, IIJA, and CHIPS Act, blocked offshore wind farm development, and forced aging fossil-fueled power plants to continue operating after their utility owners planned to shut them down. It weaponized every federal agency from Interior to the Department of Commerce against renewable energy, seized Venezuela's oil, and pulled the US out of participation in key UN climate bodies.

The results have been staggering. Over 22 GW of wind and solar projects have been thwarted or thrown into limbo, and fully half of the country's planned new power capacity, some 117 GW, is at risk of delay. The Department of Energy has issued "emergency" orders to keep six aging coal and gas plants open, invoking a provision of the Federal Power Act originally written for wartime. None of these federal interventions were requested by a utility, grid operator, or state regulator. Courts have been pushing back hard, calling these actions arbitrary, capricious, unreasonable, and seemingly unjustified.

Whether any of these executive actions will survive is the central question. In today's conversation, we are rejoined by Ari Peskoe, Director of the Electricity Law Initiative at Harvard Law School, to walk through dozens of Trump's energy interventions and assess which ones are likely to hold up against the growing wave of legal challenges being brought against them. As we discuss, the courts are doing a surprisingly effective job of striking down the administration's illegal maneuvers. But every project delayed or canceled while the cases grind through court is inflicting real damage on the energy transition.

Guest:

Ari Peskoe is Director of the Electricity Law Initiative at Harvard Law School.  He has written extensively about electricity regulation, on issues ranging from rooftop solar to Constitutional challenges to states’ energy laws.

On Twitter: @AriPeskoe

On the Web: Electricity Law Initiative at Harvard Law School

Geek rating: 1

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[Episode #268] – Activism 101

Jan 28 2026

Mini Episode

If you want to see the energy transition succeed where you live, you might want to get involved in some local advocacy campaigns, or even become an organizer yourself. But how?

The energy and climate movement is overwhelmingly popular. Surveys consistently show broad public support for clean energy. Yet energy transition issues rarely crack the top ten concerns of most voters, and we remain remarkably bad at enacting political consequences when decision-makers ignore us. If being right were enough, energy transitionistas would have won by now.

In this episode, Carter Lavin—a climate and transportation activist who has spent 15 years training nonprofits, grassroots groups, businesses, and individuals to win local and state-level campaigns—shares what he's learned. His new book, If You Want to Win, You've Got to Fight - A Guide to Effective Transportation Advocacy, serves as a handbook for anyone who wants to move the needle on policies that support energy transition in their own community.

We discuss how to translate your goals into specific campaigns, how to connect with allies who share your values, and how to apply pressure at the right decision points. Carter explains the "inside-outside game" that bridges the gap between wonks who read 500-page regulatory filings and activists who show up at protests. We explore power mapping, coalition building, and why working on multiple campaigns simultaneously makes your movement stronger.

If you're ready to move from watching the energy transition unfold to actively shaping it, this conversation will show you how.

Guest:

Carter Lavin is a climate and transportation activist who helps organizations and individuals hone strategy and build political power. For over 15 years, Carter has directly supported and trained non-profits, candidates, grassroots groups, businesses, and hundreds of individuals to win on the issues that matter to them at the local, regional, and state level.

He has written for Streetsblog and Convergence Magazine. He lives in Oakland, California and is a co-founder of the transportation advocacy group Transbay Coalition and the board game design company Serious Mischief.

On Substack: https://carterlavin.substack.com/

On Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/carterlavin.bsky.social

On the Web:  https://www.carterlavin.com/ | https://www.transbaycoalition.org/

Geek rating: 1

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