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[Episode #229] – US Distributed Solar Potential

Jul 24 2024

Mini Episode

What is the full potential for distributed solar power in the US?

Many models have been developed to explore how a decarbonized US energy system could look, consistently finding that solar power would be the dominant source of electricity. Yet, we don’t really know the full potential for distributed solar. Even the term “distributed solar” isn’t very well-defined, potentially referring to many different kinds of solar power installations.

In today’s conversation, we review the available estimates for small rooftop and ground-mounted systems typically found on buildings, solar panels on canopies over parking lots, and innovative floating solar arrays over bodies of freshwater. Additionally, we explore emerging options such as installations on brownfield sites, agricultural lands, and alongside roadways.

Then we add it all up to see how big of a role distributed solar could actually play in a fully decarbonized US electricity system—with a surprisingly large result! But you’ll have to be a premium member and listen to the end to find out what it is.

In this episode, we are joined by Robert Margolis, a Senior Energy Analyst with the Strategic Energy Analysis Center at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (or NREL), which is part of the US Department of Energy. With more than 20 years of focused research on solar in the US, and his deep familiarity with energy technology and policy and energy-economic-environmental modeling, he is one of the top experts on the potential for distributed solar in the US.

Guest:

Robert Margolis is a Senior Energy Analyst in NREL’s Strategic Energy Analysis Center. Since joining NREL in 2003, he has served as key advisor to the U.S. DOE’s Solar Energy Technologies Office. In this role he has helped to define and carry out a broad analytical agenda focused on examining the potential for and challenges related to wide-spread adoption of solar energy. He led the Solar Futures Study (2021), the On the Path to SunShot Study (2016), and the SunShot Vision Study (2021). His main research interests include energy technology and policy; research, development, and demonstration policy; and energy-economic-environmental modeling.

On the Web:  Robert’s page at NREL

Geek rating: 4

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[Episode #228] – Public Persuasion

Jul 10 2024

Full Episode

Most climate communicators emphasize the risk of climate change, in the belief that if only people understood how dangerous it is, they would do something about it.

But what if terrifying messages about rising sea levels and life-threatening weather events have the opposite effect? What if they only serve to turn people off, rather than motivate them to act?

And what kinds of messages do resonate with people and get them interested in taking action on climate and participating in the energy transition?

In this episode, we are joined by the Jessica Lu, the Associate Director of Strategy and Analytics with Potential Energy’s Insights Lab. Her team has used established market research techniques to test various messages to unearth what motivates humans to care about climate change. The insights she shares with us are simultaneously surprising and obvious, suggesting much more successful strategies for climate communications.

Because we feel that this information is critically important for all climate communicators to understand, we decided to make this episode one of our occasional lagniappe shows and put it in front of the paywall so that subscribers and nonsubscribers alike can enjoy it. So, nonsubscribers, now you can see what you’ve been missing! And we hope you will all share this episode widely with your friends and colleagues.

Guest:

Jessica Lu is Associate Director of Strategy and Analytics and leads Potential Energy’s Insights Lab. She leads teams that execute hundreds of message tests and focus groups and perform in-market measurement analytics to unearth what motivates humans to care about climate change.

Prior to PE, Jessica was an analyst at the Draper Richards Kaplan Foundation, supporting entrepreneurs building innovative, non-profit startups and social enterprises to solve gnarly social issues. She graduated from Princeton University with a degree in Civil and Environmental Engineering.

On Twitter: @pe_coalition

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/potential-energy-coalition/

On the Web:  https://potentialenergycoalition.org/

Geek rating: 1

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[Episode #227] – FERC Order 1920

Jun 26 2024

Mini Episode

The United States faces significant challenges in deploying enough transmission capacity and interconnections to support a modernized grid. Approximately 2.5 TW of new clean wind, solar, and storage capacity is currently on hold — twice the country’s current generating capacity of 1.28 TW. These projects are just awaiting transmission interconnections. Building the necessary infrastructure and securing these interconnections would revolutionize the U.S. power grid, likely eliminating all fossil-fuel (and eventually nuclear) generation.

However, investor-owned utilities have historically obstructed the development of new transmission capacity, both within and between their regional transmission grids. In 2011, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) sought to address these barriers with Order 1000, but utilities resisted, attempting to undermine and weaken the order. Despite some progress within Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs), no new transmission projects outside of these RTOs have been realized under Order 1000. This bottleneck has hindered the energy transition and state-level goals to expand clean energy use and phase out fossil-fueled power under their own renewable portfolio standards.

In response, FERC introduced Order 1920 in May this year, aimed at compelling utilities and regional transmission organizations to undertake long-term regional planning of transmission systems.

In this episode, we are rejoined by Ari Peskoe, Director of the Electricity Law Initiative at Harvard Law School, to walk us through the history of Order 1000 and to explain the implications of the new Order 1920. He’s one of the top scholars in the country on transmission regulation and we’re very pleased that he was willing to share his expertise with us once again.

This 80-minute discussion gets quite technical, but after listening to it you will begin to see a clear picture of a future in which new transmission lines unlock the potential of the wind and solar resources in the US and help us completely decarbonize the power grid.

Guest:

Ari Peskoe is Director of the Electricity Law Initiative at Harvard Law School.  He has written extensively about electricity regulation, on issues ranging from rooftop solar to Constitutional challenges to states’ energy laws.

On Twitter: @AriPeskoe

On the Web: Electricity Law Initiative at Harvard Law School

Geek rating: 9

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[Episode #226] – Load Growth Shenanigans

Jun 12 2024

Mini Episode

In recent months, reports have circulated that data centers, cryptocurrency miners, and AI technologies are suddenly increasing electricity demand, allegedly straining power grids. These declarations have prompted calls for the hasty approval of new gas-fired power plants to bolster generation capacity. But should we believe these claims?

We remain skeptical.

As the energy transition progresses towards "electrifying everything," there is little doubt that significant loads will transfer to the power grid. However, we have yet to see evidence that this shift is outpacing grid capacity. In fact, we have good reason to believe that much of the projected demand has been overestimated - in part because utilities have a long history of projecting demand that never materialized.

In today’s episode, we try to separate power demand fact from fiction with Mike O’Boyle, Senior Director of Electricity at Energy Innovation, a San Francisco-based energy transition think tank. Over the past several months, Mike and his colleagues have been urging regulators to resist the panicked rush towards new gas infrastructure and consider cleaner alternatives. We’ll explore the origins of the alleged cloud electricity demand surge narratives, assess the real picture of modern computing demand, and discuss viable solutions. As we will uncover, much of the prevailing discourse is not about a genuine power shortage but rather the efforts of certain political figures to boost tax revenues, often at the expense of public welfare — and is ultimately a lapse in regulatory oversight meant to protect the public interest.

Guest:

Mike O’Boyle is Senior Director, Electricity at Energy Innovation. He directs the firm’s Electricity program which focuses on designing and quantifying the impacts of policies needed to affordably and reliably decarbonize the U.S. electricity grid. He has worked with Congressional staff and U.S. state policymakers—including those in California, Hawaii, Minnesota, New York,  and Oregon — to help improve the link between public policy goals and the motivations of electric utilities. He is a frequent contributor to Forbes, and has written for Canary Media, The Hill, New York Times, and Utility Dive, and has authored reports covering a wide range of power sector topics. Mike graduated cum laude from Arizona State University Sandra Day O’Connor College of Law, where he focused on energy and international law. He also has a B.A. from Vanderbilt University in philosophy and Asian Studies, with a minor in economics.

On Twitter: @oboylemm

On the Web:  Mike’s page at Energy Innovation

Geek rating: 6

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[Episode #225] – Demand Side Solutions

May 29 2024

Mini Episode

Energy transition is often depicted as a choice between different supply-side technologies such as wind or solar versus oil and coal. However, the demand side of the energy transition — focusing on efficiency improvements to buildings, adopting walking and biking over driving, and electrifying consumer appliances — deserves just as much attention.

Would you believe that widespread adoption of demand-side measures like these could cut the UK’s energy demand in half without sacrificing services or quality of life? That’s one of the key insights our guest in this episode has to share.

Nick Eyre is one of the most well-informed experts on the demand side of the energy transition. He is Professor of Energy and Climate Policy, and Senior Research Fellow in Energy, at the Environmental Change Institute at Oxford University in England. He serves as the Director of the Centre for Research into Energy Demand Solutions, which is UK Research and Innovation’s (UKRI's) primary investment in energy use research. He is also a Co-Director of the Oxford Martin Programme on Integrating Renewable Energy, which is undertaking research on the combined, technical, economic, social and policy issues in moving to electricity systems with very high levels of variable renewables.

For the past five years, Nick has led a comprehensive project involving hundreds of researchers to review nearly 500 publications on the demand side of energy. This project concluded at the end of 2023, and he joins us today to share its key insights. He’ll help us understand the most important demand-side decarbonization strategies in 2024, and what we can do to accelerate their deployment. It’s a really comprehensive, yet very accessible (and not too geeky) discussion that offers at least a few practical insights that all of our listeners could readily consider applying in their own lives.

Guest:

Nick Eyre is Professor of Energy and Climate Policy, and Senior Research Fellow in Energy, at the Environmental Change Institute. He is Director of the Centre for Research into Energy Demand Solutions, which is UKRI’s main investment into research on energy use. He is also a Co-Director of the Oxford Martin Programme on Integrating Renewable Energy, which is undertaking research on the combined, technical, economic, social and policy issues in moving to electricity systems with very high levels of variable renewables.

Professor Eyre acts as scientific advisor on climate change to Oxford City Council. He is interested in the role of public policy in reducing energy demand and carbon emissions, and the transition to zero carbon energy systems. This includes the integration of renewable energy into energy systems, energy market reform, policy instruments for energy efficiency and the role of local government and communities.

Professor Eyre was one of the UK’s first researchers on mitigation of carbon emissions, and was co-author of a presentation to the Cabinet on this issue in 1989. In 1997, he wrote the first published study on how the Government’s 20% carbon emission reduction target might be delivered. He has advised successive governments and a wide range of Parliamentary inquiries. He managed a large European Commission programme on the external costs of energy and was lead author of the report used as the basis for the UK Government’s first estimate of the social cost of carbon. From 1999 to 2007 he was Head of Policy and then Directory of Strategy at the Energy Saving Trust.

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nick-eyre-96951a33

On the Web:  Nick’s faculty page at Oxford

Geek rating: 3

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[Episode #224] – US Hydrogen Tax Credits

May 15 2024

Mini Episode

Clean hydrogen is expected to be an essential pathway to decarbonizing the economy. The US Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 offered a generous tax credit known as “45V” for clean hydrogen production, but left it to the US Treasury Department and the IRS to define the rules for earning the credit. So they sought input on the rules by issuing an RFI (Request for Information), and aspiring hydrogen industry players, think-tanks, policy advisors, and the public submitted their guidance. After the proposed rules were issued, tens of thousands of additional comments were filed. A final comment period on the rules ended on May 10.

Eric Gimon of Energy Innovation, a San Francisco-based clean energy think tank and a major contributor to the 45V discourse, previously discussed their guidance for the IRS in Episode #192.

In this episode, Eric rejoins us to discuss the proposed final rules, and their team’s comments on them. On the whole, they are optimistic that the rules will spur robust investments in the burgeoning US green hydrogen sector. With potentially hundreds of billions of dollars in tax credits on the line, it’s important to get the details right, so we explore them in depth in this 90-minute discussion—which earned a rare off-the-charts Geek Rating of 11. We also address concerns and criticisms raised by prospective hydrogen producers whose projects may not align with the new regulations.

Guest:

Eric Gimon consults as a technical expert, research scholar, and policy adviser with Energy Innovation, where he works with the Electricity team to develop innovative thinking on policy solutions for clean, reliable, and affordable electric power in the U.S. More specifically, Eric works on questions of renewable energy integration, both in the context of today’s challenges as well as for future pathways

On Twitter: @EricGimon

On the Web: Eric’s writing on Power Sector Transformation at Energy Innovation

Geek rating: 2

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[Episode #223] – Fiscal Implications of the US Transition

May 1 2024

Mini Episode

The dialogue surrounding so-called 'just transition' initiatives in the US has primarily focused on the workforce: How can communities reliant on well-paying fossil fuel sector jobs find new opportunities for those facing unemployment? Are there state or federal retraining programs available to facilitate their transition into new roles? Moreover, what industries can offer new, equally good jobs?

What hasn’t been studied nearly as much is the fiscal impact of losing industrial activity related to fossil fuel extraction, processing and delivery. How much public revenue is really at stake in the energy transition? Which states face the highest jeopardy? And how can communities dependent on fossil fuel revenues navigate their transitions while continuing to support essential public infrastructure, such as schools and libraries, once these funds dry up?

In today’s conversation, we speak with an expert who has studied the fiscal impact of the energy transition extensively: Daniel Raimi, a fellow at Resources for the Future (or RFF), an independent, nonprofit research institution based in Washington, DC. Daniel shares with us the results of his extensive, on-the-ground research into the fiscal implications of the energy transition for communities that derive a large share of their public revenue from fossil fuel industries. We also talk through a number of ways fossil-fueled revenues could be replaced by clean energy industries and other policies. We consider the importance of green industrial policy in the equation, and we wrap it up with a speculative discussion about the destiny of fossil fuel communities in the net-zero world of 2050 that we’re striving to reach.

Guest:

Daniel Raimi is a fellow at RFF and a lecturer at the Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan. He works on a range of energy policy issues with a focus on tools to enable an equitable energy transition. He has published extensively in academic journals and been quoted in national media outlets. He has presented his research for policymakers, industry, and other stakeholders, including before the US Senate Budget Committee and the Energy and Mineral Resources Subcommittee of the US House’s Natural Resources Committee. He is also the author of The Fracking Debate (2017). He cohosts Resources Radio, a weekly podcast from RFF.

On Twitter: @danielraimi

On the Web:  Daniel’s page at RFF

Geek rating: 2

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[Episode #222] – Green Industrial Policy

Apr 17 2024

Mini Episode

In this final episode of our three-show miniseries on green industrial policy (Episodes #220, #221 and #222), we look at it from the perspective of an economist who has written a book on the subject and advocated for it in the EU.

Dr. Alessio Terzi is an economist with the European Commission who works at the intersection of academia, policy, and think-tanks. He is the author of numerous articles in major news publications, as well as a book, titled Growth for Good.

In today’s conversation, we discuss why technological transformation is the essential pathway to solving our climate problems, and how integral capitalism and growth are to that process. We explore the concept of degrowth and some critiques of conventional capitalism, along with ways that capitalism can be adapted to answer the climate challenge. Finally, Dr. Terzi presents his "blueprint for green capitalism," offering a nuanced perspective on leveraging economic tools to foster a successful energy transition.

This episode is a thoughtful, 90-minute excursion into economic theory and green industrial policy that aims to answer some of the contemporary questions about the wisdom of using the tools of capitalism and growth to make the energy transition successful.

Guest:

Dr. Alessio Terzi is an economist working at the intersection of academia, policy and think-tanks. He is an economist at DG ECFIN of the European Commission, a Lecturer in Public Policy at Cambridge University, and an Adjunct Professor in Economics at Sciences Po and at HEC Paris. Prior to this, he was an Affiliate Fellow at Bruegel, and a Fulbright Scholar at the Harvard Kennedy School. He also worked in the European Central Bank’s EU institutions division and in sovereign risk analysis for BMI Research (Fitch Ratings). He is the author of numerous articles in major news publications and the book, Growth for Good.

On Twitter: @terzibus

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/alessio-terzi-39b89120/

On the Web:  https://www.alessioterzi.eu/

Geek rating: 5

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[Episode #221] – Fossilflation

Apr 3 2024

Mini Episode

What causes inflation? And how is it connected to the energy transition?

Standard business press narratives often discuss inflation as if it has a mind of its own, seldom exploring its root causes. However, the connection between inflation and fossil fuel prices is both undeniable and significant. In fact, as you’ll hear at the end of today’s interview, endless interventions by the Fed may be an unavoidable consequence of the energy transition, from now until the project is complete.

So why aren’t we having a conversation about how Putin’s invasion of Ukraine ultimately led to your having to pay more for everything, as inflation was transmitted through from fossil fuels to everything else? Why did Congress give us the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022, instead of the Fossil Fuel Reduction Act? And what is the role of the Fed in the energy transition?

In this conversation, climate economist Gernot Wagner of the Columbia Business School rejoins us to help us understand the relationships between fossil fuels and inflation. We discuss why the Fed acts as it does, and we explore the Inflation Reduction Act in the US and the REPowerEU policy package in the EU, and the complex interconnections between monetary policy, industrial policy, and energy policy.

Guest:

Dr. Gernot Wagner is a climate economist at Columbia Business School. His research, teaching, and writing focus on climate risks and climate policy. Prior to joining Columbia as senior lecturer and serving as faculty director of the Climate Knowledge Initiative, Gernot taught at NYU, Harvard, and Columbia. He was the founding executive director of Harvard’s Solar Geoengineering Research Program. Prior to his time at Harvard, Gernot worked at the Environmental Defense Fund, the Boston Consulting Group, and the Financial Times. He has been a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations, a Senior Fellow at the Jain Family Institute, and is a CESifo Research Network Fellow, a Faculty Affiliate at the Columbia Center for Environmental Economics and Policy, a Member of the New York City Panel on Climate Change, a Coordinating Lead Author of the Austrian Panel on Climate Change, and he serves on the board of CarbonPlan.org.

On Mastodon: https://fediscience.org/@gwagner

On Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/gwagner.com

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gwagner/

On the Web:  https://gwagner.com/

Geek rating: 6

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[Episode #220] – Climate Capitalism

Mar 20 2024

Mini Episode

What is the recipe for an energy transition at the scale needed to limit global warming below the crucial 2°C threshold?

Bloomberg journalist Akshat Rathi has identified some of the key ingredients, based on his interviews with ten of the world’s most influential personalities working on climate solutions. In his new book, Climate Capitalism, Akshat recounts their stories and makes a case for how capitalism and the dynamism of the private sector are essential components of the global race to zero emissions.

We take a deep dive into Rathi’s work, confronting the criticisms of capitalism, examining how its varied implementations around the world produce different results, and exploring potential reforms for improvement. We conclude by weaving in some ideas drawn from topics discussed previously on the show, including “command capitalism,” how the energy transition requires long-term planning with a system thinking perspective, and the tension between forces driving for international cooperation versus competition.

It's a thoughtful look at the state of the global energy transition from someone with a front-row seat to the investment flows around the world, and we know you’ll find it an illuminating and inspiring discussion.

Guest:

Akshat Rathi is a senior climate reporter for Bloomberg News and is the host of Zero, a weekly climate podcast for Bloomberg Green.

He has a PhD in chemistry from the University of Oxford, and a BTech in chemical engineering from the Institute of Chemical Technology in Mumbai. He has written for Quartz and The Economist, and his work has been cited in global publications including New York Times, Washington Post, New Yorker, The Guardian, Wall Street Journal and Financial Times.

On Twitter: @AkshatRathi

On LinkedIn: AkshatRathi

On the Web:  https://akshatrathi.com/

Geek rating: 4

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