In December 2023, a landmark declaration emerged from the COP28 climate conference: For the first time, the world’s climate delegates agreed that a global "transition away" from fossil fuels is essential. This historic pronouncement marked a significant shift in tone from previous climate conferences and formalized the energy transition as a global priority, underscoring the urgency of the climate crisis.
But what are the implications for the oil and gas industry? To address this question we turn to the latest analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA), which has some clear guidance about what must be done to prevent global warming from exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial temperatures.
In November 2023, Chris traveled to the IEA’s headquarters in Paris, France to discuss their perspectives with two of their lead modelers: Tim Gould, the co-head of the IEA’s World Energy Outlook reports who you’ll remember from Episodes #148 and #171, and Christophe McGlade, the Head of the IEA’s Energy Supply Unit who you’ll remember from Episode #166.
In this 98-minute conversation, we focus on the IEA’s updated outlook for oil and gas, drawing on findings from their World Energy Outlook 2023, their November 2023 oil market report, their updated Net Zero Roadmap, and a new groundbreaking report, The Oil and Gas Industry in Net Zero Transitions. We explore how the energy transition is cutting into demand for oil and gas, and the serious implications for producers. We also show why the industry must pivot to working on energy transition solutions, or prepare for their own obsolescence.
Christophe McGlade is Head of the Energy Supply Unit at the International Energy Agency (IEA).
When he appeared on the show in February 2022, he was the Head of the IEA’s Energy Supply Unit and led the energy supply and climate analysis for the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook series. He was still in that role when he returned with his colleague Tim Gould in January 2024.
Before those appearances, he was a lead author for the IEA special reports on Net Zero by 2050: A roadmap for the global energy sector; Sustainable Recoveries; and the oil and gas industry in energy transitions.
On Twitter: @TofMcGlade
On the Web: Christophe’s page at IEA
Tim Gould is Chief Energy Economist at the International Energy Agency (IEA).
When he first appeared on the show in May 2021, he was co-head of the World Energy Outlook series at the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA). He designed and directed the work together with the IEA’s Chief Energy Modeller and contributed to the Outlook as a principal author, and he also oversaw the Agency’s analysis of energy investment and finance, including the World Energy Investment series.
He returned in April 2022. He was still co-head of the World Energy Outlook when he and his colleague Christophe McGlade joined Chris in January 2024. He came back in January 2025, and again in December 2025 as a lead author of that year’s Outlook.
Tim joined the IEA in 2008, initially as a specialist on Russian and Caspian energy, before going across to join the World Energy Outlook team under the (then) Chief Economist, Fatih Birol, who is now the IEA’s Executive Director. Before IEA, he worked on European and Eurasian energy issues in Brussels and also spent ten years working in Eastern Europe, primarily in Ukraine. He studied at Oxford University and Johns Hopkins SAIS.
On Twitter: @tim_gould_
On the Web: https://www.iea.org
Recording date: November 27, 2023
Air date: January 10, 2024
Geek rating: 8