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[Episode #271] – China Update 2026

Mar 11 2026

Mini Episode

China's total CO2 emissions went flat and slowly started declining almost two years ago, but you probably wouldn't know it from reading the news about how its pipeline of coal power plant projects surged to a record high in 2025.

Similarly, recent data shows that China's coal power output fell by 1% in 2025, even as it built more coal plants than it had in a decade.

These kinds of conundrums are typical for China, with its complex interaction of economic forces and top-down state planning. But once you understand what's driving them, it all makes sense—just not a Western economic kind of sense.

To help us untangle this picture, we welcome back Lauri Myllyvirta, co-founder and lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), who last joined us in Episode #138, all the way back in 2021. We were overdue for an update.

In this episode, we dig into this coal conundrum—why China added 78 GW of new coal capacity in 2025, more than India built in an entire decade, even as customers pay $14 billion a year in capacity payments to coal plants that may not even run. We look at the 315 GW of solar and 120 GW of wind China added last year, and how 75 GW of new storage is helping to displace coal power. And we discuss why China's clean energy investments now make up more than a third of its GDP growth—without them, 2025 growth would have been 3.5% instead of 5%.

Although its fleet of coal power plants continues to grow, there is good news here. Because as the largest energy consumer in the world, China's declining emissions mean emissions are declining globally.

Guest:

Lauri Myllyvirta is the lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). Lauri has over 10 years’ experience as an air pollution and climate expert. He has led numerous research projects on air pollution, assessing air quality and health impacts of energy policies, including more than a dozen modeling studies of the air quality and health impacts of coal-fired power plants. This research has been published and utilized in numerous countries in East Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, Europe, Turkey, South Africa and others. Lauri has also contributed to numerous publications around energy solutions and air pollution and is asked frequently to attend seminars and conferences as an expert speaker. He served as a member of the Technical Working Group on regulating emissions from large combustion plants in the EU and currently serves as a member of the expert panel on regulating SO2 emissions in South Africa.

On Bluesky: @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social

On Twitter: @laurimyllyvirta

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lauri-myllyvirta-3164703b/

On the Web:  Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) | Lauri’s page at CarbonBrief

Geek rating: 7

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[Episode #270] – View from the Energy Transitions Commission

Feb 25 2026

Mini Episode

Both the IEA and BNEF now project that current policies put us on track for roughly 2.5°C of warming. Some voices, like Daniel Yergin and Bill Gates, argue we should accept that trajectory and focus only on the technologies that are already winning. But even 2.5°C is still much too high. We can and must do better.

To help us take stock of the global energy transition in today's conversation, we are fortunate to be joined by Lord Adair Turner, co-chair of the Energy Transitions Commission (ETC), headquartered in London. The Commission is a global coalition of major power and industrial companies, investors, environmental NGOs, and experts working on achievable pathways to limit global warming while stimulating economic development and social progress. Lord Turner chaired the UK Climate Change Committee from 2008 to 2012, chairs insurance group Chubb Europe, and is a crossbench (non-partisan) member of the House of Lords.

We discuss how the transition is reshaping geopolitics, why the ETC's forecasts for green hydrogen have been cut roughly in half, and what Europe's green industrial policy (including its carbon border adjustment mechanism) needs to get right. We explore the roles of China and the UK in mobilizing capital for the developing world, how the UK has achieved a 75% decarbonization of its power sector in just 14 years, and what Turner calls 'double banking' — the core challenge of the mid-transition, where we're paying to build new energy systems while the old ones can't yet be switched off.

Turner makes the case that well below 2°C is still achievable, but only if we return to the climate imperative alongside the technological opportunity.

Guest:

Lord Adair Turner chairs the Energy Transitions Commission, a global coalition of major power and industrial companies, investors, environmental NGOs and experts working out achievable pathways to limit global warming to below 2˚C by 2040 while stimulating economic development and social progress.

In addition, he is chairman of insurance group Chubb Europe as well as of Oaknorth Bank (a UK start-up lending money to small and medium companies); he is a board member of battery production company AESC Japan; and Advisor to Watershed Technologies Inc. since 2023.

Lord Turner chaired the UK’s Financial Services Authority from 2008 to 2013, overseeing the UK’s policy and regulatory response to the Global Financial Crisis and  playing a lead role in the post crisis redesign of global banking and shadow banking regulation.

During his public policy career, he was Director General of the Confederation of British Industry (1995-2000); chaired the UK Low Pay Commission (2002-2006); the Pensions Commision (2003-2006); and the UK Climate Change Committee (2008-2012) an independent body to advise the UK Government on tackling climate change. The recommendations set out in their first report “Building a low-carbon economy” were adopted in 2009. He became a cross bench member of the House of Lords in 2006.

Amongst his business roles, Lord Turner was at McKinsey & Co (1982-1995) and has served in several Non-Executive Directorships across a wide range of financial, business and not-for-profit boards, such as Merrill Lynch Europe (2000-2006), Standard Chartered plc (2006-2008), Prudential (2015-2019), Overseas Development Institute (2007-20200, Save the Children (2006-2008).

Lord Turner is the author of “Between Debt and the Devil” (Princeton 2015), and Economics after the Crisis (MIT 2012). He makes regular contributions in the printed press, in the UK and abroad.

He is a Trustee Emeritus of the British Museum, honorary fellow of The Royal Society, and received an Honorary Degree from Cambridge University in 2017.

Lord Turner has an MA in History (First class with Distinction) and an MA in Economics (First Class) from Gonville and Caius College, Cambridge University.

On X: @AdairTurnerUK

Energy Transitions Commission on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/energy-transitions-commission/

On the Web: Energy Transitions Commission

Geek rating: 6

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[Episode #269] – Trump’s War on the Energy Transition

Feb 11 2026

Mini Episode

In the first year of his second term, President Donald Trump waged an all-out war on the energy transition. His administration canceled hundreds of projects created under the Inflation Reduction Act, IIJA, and CHIPS Act, blocked offshore wind farm development, and forced aging fossil-fueled power plants to continue operating after their utility owners planned to shut them down. It weaponized every federal agency from Interior to the Department of Commerce against renewable energy, seized Venezuela's oil, and pulled the US out of participation in key UN climate bodies.

The results have been staggering. Over 22 GW of wind and solar projects have been thwarted or thrown into limbo, and fully half of the country's planned new power capacity, some 117 GW, is at risk of delay. The Department of Energy has issued "emergency" orders to keep six aging coal and gas plants open, invoking a provision of the Federal Power Act originally written for wartime. None of these federal interventions were requested by a utility, grid operator, or state regulator. Courts have been pushing back hard, calling these actions arbitrary, capricious, unreasonable, and seemingly unjustified.

Whether any of these executive actions will survive is the central question. In today's conversation, we are rejoined by Ari Peskoe, Director of the Electricity Law Initiative at Harvard Law School, to walk through dozens of Trump's energy interventions and assess which ones are likely to hold up against the growing wave of legal challenges being brought against them. As we discuss, the courts are doing a surprisingly effective job of striking down the administration's illegal maneuvers. But every project delayed or canceled while the cases grind through court is inflicting real damage on the energy transition.

Guest:

Ari Peskoe is Director of the Electricity Law Initiative at Harvard Law School.  He has written extensively about electricity regulation, on issues ranging from rooftop solar to Constitutional challenges to states’ energy laws.

On Twitter: @AriPeskoe

On the Web: Electricity Law Initiative at Harvard Law School

Geek rating: 1

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[Episode #267] – Japan: Petrostate or Electrostate?

Jan 14 2026

Mini Episode

Depending on where you live, the energy transition might feel like it's stalling or accelerating faster than ever. Countries are sorting themselves into two camps: petrostates seeking to stay on the fossil fuel path, and electrostates racing toward renewables, batteries, EVs, and other "electrotech." Under Trump, the US is joining Russia and Saudi Arabia in the petrostate camp, while China is leading much of the rest of the world in the opposite direction by exporting electrotech to the developing world as well as developed countries that lack domestic fossil fuel resources.

But as countries follow different paths through the energy transition, where does that leave Japan? Importing 100% of its oil and gas means it ranks among the world's most energy-vulnerable nations. After the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant disaster in 2011, Japan has lost more than a decade to inaction, stuck between a public that no longer trusts nuclear power and a political establishment reluctant to abandon enormous sunk costs in nuclear capacity. Now Japan has reached a crossroads. It can side with the petrostates, go with the electrostates, or try to straddle the line between them.

To explore Japan's options, Chris interviewed Nobuo Tanaka, former Executive Director of the International Energy Agency from 2007 to 2011. Tanaka now chairs the steering committee of Japan's Innovation for Cool Earth Forum and advises Japanese and international companies on energy strategy.

In this conversation, we'll hear Tanaka's bold proposal for Japan, Korea, and China to set aside their historical conflicts and form an electrostate alliance, much as France and Germany did after World War II when they created the European Coal and Steel Community. Tanaka also makes the case for a new generation of nuclear technology as Japan's path forward, a view on which he and Chris differ, though they agree on the stakes. And, based on his long experience in international geopolitical forums, Tanaka explains how US policy is pushing Europe and much of the rest of the world closer to China.

Guest:

Nobuo Tanaka is Executive Director Emeritus, The International Energy Agency (IEA).

Nobuo Tanaka is Chairman of the steering committee of the Innovation for Cool Earth Forum (ICEF), which was established by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2014. As Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) from 2007 to 2011, he initiated a collective release of oil stocks in June 2011. He began his career in 1973 in the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), and has served in a number of high-ranking positions, including Director- General of the Multilateral Trade System Department. He was deeply engaged in bilateral trade issues with the US as Minister for Industry, Trade and Energy at the Embassy of Japan, Washington DC. He has also served twice as Director for Science, Technology and Industry (DSTI) of the Paris-based international organization, OECD. As CEO of Tanaka Global Inc, he advises several Japanese and International companies.

Geek rating: 8

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[Episode #244] – Rethinking Industrial Strategy

Feb 26 2025

Mini Episode

What makes for effective and enduring green industrial policy? How can public and private investment mobilize to achieve the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal? Can Trump undermine climate science and the global energy transition, or will the rest of the world carry on without the US? Which policy designs can drive equitable green growth, ensuring the energy transition benefits economically disadvantaged and indigenous communities?

Today’s guest, Mariana Mazzucato, is a Professor in the Economics of Innovation and Public Value at University College London and the Founding Director of the UCL Institute for Innovation & Public Purpose. An author of four influential books on shaping capitalism, growth, and economic policy for the public good, she advises governments worldwide on innovation-led inclusive and sustainable growth. She chairs several governmental and inter-governmental organizations and produces reports designed to shape economic policies, particularly in the developing world.

In these challenging times of economic upheaval, Mariana’s ideas offer valuable guidance for policymakers as they craft industrial strategies to advance the energy transition.

Guest:

Mariana Mazzucato is Professor in the Economics of Innovation and Public Value at University College London, where she is Founding Director of the UCL Institute for Innovation & Public Purpose (IIPP). Her previous posts include the RM Phillips Professorial Chair at the Science Policy Research Unit at Sussex University.

She is winner of international prizes including the Grande Ufficiale Ordine al Merito della Repubblica Italiana in 2021, Italy’s highest civilian honour, the 2020 John von Neumann Award, the 2019 All European Academies Madame de Staël Prize for Cultural Values, and the 2018 Leontief Prize for Advancing the Frontiers of Economic Thought. She is a member of the UK Academy of Social Sciences (FAcSS) and the Italian Academy of Sciences Lincei. Most recently, Pope Francis appointed her to the Pontifical Academy for Life for bringing ‘more humanity’ to the world.

She is the author of The Entrepreneurial State: debunking public vs. private sector myths (2013), The Value of Everything: making and taking in the global economy (2018), Mission Economy: a moonshot guide to changing capitalism (2021) and The Big Con: How the Consulting Industry Weakens our Businesses, Infantilizes our Governments and Warps our Economies (2023).

She advises policy makers around the world on innovation-led inclusive and sustainable growth. Her roles have included for example Co-Chair of the Group of Experts to the G20 Taskforce on a Global Mobilization against Climate Change, Chair of the World Health Organization’s Council on the Economics of Health for All, Co-Chair of the Global Commission on the Economics of Water, Co-Chair on the Council on Urban Initiatives, Commissioner for the Jubilee Report on Addressing the Debt and Development Crises in Countries from the South, and member of the South African President’s Economic Advisory Council. Previously, through her role as Special Advisor for the EC Commissioner for Research, Science and Innovation (2017-2019), she authored the high-impact report on Mission-Oriented Research and Innovation in the European Union, turning “missions” into a crucial new instrument in the European Commission’s Horizon innovation programme, and more recently, authored a report with the UN’s Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) on Transformational Change in Latin America and the Caribbean: A mission-oriented approach.

On Bluesky: @mazzucatom.bsky.social

On Twitter: @MazzucatoM

On Substack marianamazzucato.substack.com

On the Web:  https://marianamazzucato.com

UCL profile page: https://profiles.ucl.ac.uk/61409-mariana-mazzucato/about

Geek rating: 7

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[Episode #238] – Transition in Europe 2024

Dec 4 2024

Mini Episode

The outlook for energy transition in the US may feel bleak at the moment, but Europe continues to make significant progress. So if you’re ready for a little good news and thoughtful conversation about the energy transition in Europe, this one’s for you!

Our guest in this episode is Jan Rosenow, a veteran European energy observer, analyst, and policy advisor with extensive experience in energy regulation and market design. As Vice President of the Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP), he supports their European team with a focus on power market design, energy regulation, electrification, the gas transition and energy efficiency. Jan’s resumé includes roles at the World Economic Forum, the International Energy Agency, the European Commission, the European Parliament, the UK’s Office of Gas and Electricity Markets, and the British House of Commons, among many others. He is also an accomplished academic who has contributed extensively to hundreds of peer-reviewed articles, technical reports and opinion pieces on energy and sustainability.

In this episode, we explore where Europe’s energy policies are delivering results and where it is still falling short. We discuss the enormous need to improve building energy efficiency across the continent and how electrifying heating systems can help. Jan also explains why balancing electricity and gas prices is key to supporting the energy transition. And Chris offers a few thoughts on how the re-election of Donald Trump might impact energy transition in the years ahead.

Guest:

As the vice president of the Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP), Jan Rosenow partners with RAP’s CEO and senior leadership team on global strategy while providing programmatic direction to RAP’s European team with a focus on RAP’s initiatives in Europe on power market design, energy regulation, electrification, the gas transition and energy efficiency.

Rosenow serves in various board and expert committee roles with current and past roles including the World Economic Forum’s Senior Executive Group on Electrification, the International Energy Agency’s Executive Committee of the DSM TCP, the European Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (eceee) and GLOBSEC.

He has also advised the International Energy Agency, the European Commission, the European Parliament, the U.S. Agency for International Development, the German Corporation for International Cooperation (GIZ), government departments in a number of countries and the UK’s Office of Gas and Electricity Markets, as well as serving as an expert witness on several occasions to the European and British Parliaments. He is a former special advisor to the British House of Commons and the lead author of the International Energy Agency’s first global assessment of market-based instruments for energy efficiency.

An accomplished academic, Rosenow has contributed extensively to energy research. He is a research associate at Oxford, Cambridge, Sussex and FU Berlin. His scholarly work includes hundreds of peer-reviewed articles, technical reports and opinion pieces on energy and sustainability, which have been widely cited and used to shape policy discussions.

Rosenow is also a highly sought-after keynote speaker, regularly invited to present at national and international conferences. His speaking engagements include the United Nations, the International Energy Agency, the World Economic Forum, the European Parliament and more.  He is also the co-founder and co-host of the “Watt Matters” podcast, where he discusses energy and sustainability issues with leading experts.

In recognition of his impact in the energy sector, Rosenow has been named one of the top 100 players in the global climate space and among the top 25 energy influencers and top 15 sustainability influencers worldwide. Additionally, he is one of LinkedIn’s Top Green Voices. His commitment to advancing the UK’s energy future led to his election as a fellow of the Royal Society of Arts, and his contributions to the energy sector have earned him a fellowship at the Energy Institute.

Jan Rosenow earned several postgraduate qualifications, including a master’s degree in environmental policy and regulation from the London School of Economics and a doctorate from Oxford University.

On Twitter: @janrosenow

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/janrosenow

On the Web:
https://www.janrosenow.com/
https://www.raponline.org/experts/jan-rosenow/

Geek rating: 7

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[Episode #137] – Energy and Climate in the Biden Administration

Dec 23 2020

Mini Episode

What will the Biden-Harris administration mean for America’s energy transition, its relationship with the rest of the world, and for global action on climate? Beyond everybody’s policy wish lists, what’s actually likely to happen, and what do this administration’s top priorities need to be to put the U.S. back on track with climate action?

In this episode, we look at the realpolitik of the current situation, and weigh up the challenges that face us in rebuilding America, as well as what it will take to restore our relationship with the rest of the world and show leadership on climate and energy transition once again. And we consider what the staffing of the new administration can tell us about what kind of character it will have, and what the Cabinet’s policy priorities are likely to be.

In this final episode of 2020, we turn the page and look forward to putting America back on track, and getting back to some semblance of normal life again.

Geek rating: 5

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[Episode #91] – Energy Transition in India and Southeast Asia, Part 1

Mar 20 2019

Mini Episode

It has long been assumed that India, China, and other developing countries of Southeast Asia would power their vigorous economic growth for decades to come with coal. We heard over and over that China is building a new coal-fired power plant every three days, and about plans for multi-gigawatt sized coal-fired power plants in India. As long as coal was the cheapest form of power, addressing our climate emergency seemed like a lost hope.

But that nightmare is now evaporating thanks to the continuously declining costs for solar, wind, and battery storage. Although there are far too few policymakers (not to mention the major energy agencies, like EIA and IEA) who appear to be aware of it, the future of coal is fading by the day, as solar and wind take the lead as the lowest cost forms of power. And nowhere is this new reality more starkly evident than in India, where a remarkable pivot away from coal has been under way for about five years now, radically reshaping the outlook for India’s energy consumption, and stranding billions of dollars in investments in coal plants that will not be used as expected. At the same time, India is busily electrifying 18,000 villages, pushing forward on the electrification of transportation, and developing demand-side technologies that together are more likely to make India one of the world’s great success stories in energy transition than one of the world’s largest upcoming carbon emitters.

Our guest in this episode has been closely watching these markets for three decades, and is one of the sharpest observers of what’s happening in India and Southeast Asia. This episode is Part One of our two-and-a-half hour conversation with him, which mostly covers India and coal. Part Two of this interview will be featured in Episode 93.

Geek rating: 4

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[Episode #72] – The Future of Solar

Jun 27 2018

Mini Episode

The cost of solar has dropped so quickly that we’re suddenly in a world nobody really anticipated. Utility power procurement is having to pivot to solar under $0.03/kWh…including dispatchable solar with storage, displacing not just coal and nuclear, but natural gas power plants, which everyone assumed we would continue building for decades to come.

So what’s next for solar? Are we ready to phase out its incentives? Do we still need solar advocacy? And are we at risk of solar becoming so cheap that even solar developers can no longer afford to build it? Does the sun actually need to be tamed?

Our guest in this episode has a unique point of view on these issues. Adam Browning is the co-founder and Executive Director of Vote Solar, a non-profit advocacy organization in the US with the mission of bringing solar energy into the mainstream, and he knows the history and the current prospects of solar better than most.

Geek rating: 5

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[Episode #45] – Climate Science Part 3 – Paleoclimate

Jun 14 2017

Mini Episode

In this third episode of our mini-series on climate science, we talk with paleoclimate scientist Robert Kopp of Rutgers University about what Earth’s past climate can tell us about its future, especially where it concerns sea level rise. We also discuss his research on the relationship between climate science and the economy, and how a transdisciplinary approach using natural sciences, social sciences, engineering, and urban planning can help us tackle the challenges that climate change poses to the world’s coastlines…and how tools like the social cost of carbon and appropriate discount rates can help address those challenges, from New Jersey to Florida, no matter what Trump does with federal policy. Finally, we discuss how ratings agencies and risk adjustors need to start factoring in climate risk, and why they haven't so far.

Geek rating: 5

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