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[Episode #265] – IEA World Energy Outlook 2025

Dec 17 2025

In November, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its annual World Energy Outlook (WEO) report. It was greeted with cheers from the fossil fuel industry and jeers from energy transitionistas, but there is much more to the report than either camp's narratives suggest. So Chris returned to IEA headquarters in Paris to discuss the WEO with lead author Tim Gould, as he has done for the past two years (Episode #215 and Episode #248), to get the story straight from the source.

What he found is that the revived Current Policies Scenario (CPS) shows what could happen if the energy transition is stopped in its tracks and fossil fuel demand continues to grow, as the Trump administration has stated it would like to see. While other scenarios explore continued progress in energy transition consistent with recent reports, where oil demand still peaks around 2030, and coal demand falls before the decade ends.

The report's updated global data tells another story. The oil industry spends $550 billion annually on upstream development, and 90% of that just keeps production flat. Meanwhile, 45% of new heavy freight trucks sold in China this year run on electricity or LNG, not diesel. And in the Middle East, solar is increasingly displacing oil for electricity generation and desalination of water. In Saudi Arabia alone, this could free up over a million barrels of daily consumption.

In fact, in this year's report, IEA declares that "the Age of Electricity is here." For the first time, more than half of all energy sector investment is flowing into electricity. Renewables grow "faster than any other major energy source in all scenarios."

The picture is clear: the energy transition is still going strong.

Guest:

Tim Gould is co-head of the World Energy Outlook series at the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA). He designs and directs the work together with the IEA’s Chief Energy Modeller and contributes to the Outlook as a principal author. He also oversees the Agency’s analysis of energy investment and finance, including the World Energy Investment series. Tim has been at the IEA since 2008, and joined initially as a specialist on Russian and Caspian energy before going across to join the World Energy Outlook team under the (then) Chief Economist, Fatih Birol, who is now the IEA’s Executive Director. Before IEA, he worked on European and Eurasian energy issues in Brussels and also spent ten years working in Eastern Europe, primarily in Ukraine. He studied at Oxford University and Johns Hopkins SAIS.

On Twitter: @tim_gould_

On the Web: http://www.iea.org

Geek rating: 8

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[Episode #261] – The Case Against Climate Doom

Oct 22 2025

Mini Episode

Recent headlines may create the impression that the energy transition is slowing down, struggling against headwinds, and failing to make the requisite progress against our climate targets.

But the reality is that there is enormous progress being made against the climate change challenge, especially if you step back a bit from the daily news flow and consider the trends. There is plenty of evidence that we are in fact making a good deal of progress, and that the energy transition is accelerating, not slowing down. In fact, 2025 may be the year that global emissions peak and go into decline.

In his new book, The Case Against Climate Doom — An Economist's Guide to Climate Optimism, economist Michael Jakob reveals why the "we're too late" narrative isn't just wrong, but one that fossil fuel interests use to delay climate action. Building on his degrees in physics, economics, and international relations, Michael explores how climate change mitigation, adaptation technologies and policies are spreading across the world.

The evidence is striking: Solar costs have dropped 90% in 20 years, wind 80%, batteries 97%. Norway hit 97% EV market share without banning gas cars, simply by making electric vehicles irresistible. Climate litigation is winning unprecedented cases, with Swiss seniors successfully arguing that government inaction violates human rights. Over 5,000 climate policies now exist worldwide, up from under 100 in 2005.

In today's conversation, we explore five examples from each dimension the book covers: social progress, political change, and technological advances. From the collapse of carbon lock-in, to why even Texas became a green energy powerhouse, this interview offers clear evidence showing why the transition is continuing to accelerate, not stall.

Guest:

Michael Jakob is an independent researcher and consultant working under the label ‘Climate Transition Economics’. He holds a PhD in economics from the Technical University of Berlin and has obtained degrees in physics, economics, and international relations from universities in Munich, St. Gallen, and Geneva. His research interests include climate change mitigation in developing countries, the political economy of climate policy as well as the interlinkages between environmental policy and human well-being. Michael has advised governments, international organizations as well as NGOs and served as contributing author to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report.

On Bluesky: https://ct-economics.bsky.social/

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-jakob-3929215/

On the Web: https://www.ct-economics.net/

Geek rating: 2

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[Episode #260] – China Energy Transition Review 2025

Oct 8 2025

Mini Episode

Over the past decade, China has transformed from a heavily coal-fired country to the undisputed global leader in the energy transition. The pace keeps accelerating: In April 2025 alone, China installed more solar than Australia has in its entire history. By 2030, as little as one-seventh of China's projected spare solar manufacturing capacity could electrify everyone without power in 88 low-income countries.

Yet, this progress has not been recognized by much of the West, which still fixates on headlines about "building three coal plants a week" while missing that China is getting far ahead of US decarbonization efforts. China's vast exports of energy transition solutions are rapidly decarbonizing other emerging economies, while the nation's share of global clean energy patents jumped from 5% in 2000 to 75% today. Chinese companies now spend ten times more on electricity R&D than US companies and match the combined energy R&D spending of the US and EU together. The innovation advantage has flipped.

To understand China's oversized role in the energy transition, Muyi Yang and Sam Butler-Sloss of Ember join us to break down their report China Energy Transition Review 2025. We'll review how China is routinely beating its own transition targets by three to six years. We'll hear how Chinese firms have announced over $200 billion in overseas clean tech manufacturing investments, surpassing the scale of US investment abroad under the Marshall Plan. Solar, batteries, and EVs are growing three times faster than China's overall economy, hitting nearly 10% of GDP. Chinese solar exports to Namibia, Cambodia, and similar countries now exceed the entire centralized power generation capacity of those countries.

The result: what took decades with old energy is happening in years with solar. China's enormous commitment to the energy transition is a strategic path to economic growth and economic and political power, and it heralds the end of fossil fuel's dominance of the global energy system by 2030.

Guest #1:

Dr. Muyi Yang is Senior Policy Analyst at Ember, a global energy and climate think tank. He also holds positions as a non-resident Senior Policy Fellow at Asia Society Australia. Additionally, he is Adjunct Fellow at the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology Sydney and serves as the Secretary of the International Society for Energy Transition Studies.

On Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/muyi-yang-aa185389/?originalSubdomain=au

On X: @ymymilan

Guest #2:

Sam Butler-Sloss is a research manager at Ember where he analyses the global energy transition. He has published numerous articles and reports examining the rapid rise of cleantech and its implications. Prior to Ember, Sam worked at the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) and the Carbon Tracker Initiative.

On LinkedIn

On X

On Bluesky

On Substack

Geek rating: 3

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[Episode #238] – Transition in Europe 2024

Dec 4 2024

Mini Episode

The outlook for energy transition in the US may feel bleak at the moment, but Europe continues to make significant progress. So if you’re ready for a little good news and thoughtful conversation about the energy transition in Europe, this one’s for you!

Our guest in this episode is Jan Rosenow, a veteran European energy observer, analyst, and policy advisor with extensive experience in energy regulation and market design. As Vice President of the Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP), he supports their European team with a focus on power market design, energy regulation, electrification, the gas transition and energy efficiency. Jan’s resumé includes roles at the World Economic Forum, the International Energy Agency, the European Commission, the European Parliament, the UK’s Office of Gas and Electricity Markets, and the British House of Commons, among many others. He is also an accomplished academic who has contributed extensively to hundreds of peer-reviewed articles, technical reports and opinion pieces on energy and sustainability.

In this episode, we explore where Europe’s energy policies are delivering results and where it is still falling short. We discuss the enormous need to improve building energy efficiency across the continent and how electrifying heating systems can help. Jan also explains why balancing electricity and gas prices is key to supporting the energy transition. And Chris offers a few thoughts on how the re-election of Donald Trump might impact energy transition in the years ahead.

Guest:

As the vice president of the Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP), Jan Rosenow partners with RAP’s CEO and senior leadership team on global strategy while providing programmatic direction to RAP’s European team with a focus on RAP’s initiatives in Europe on power market design, energy regulation, electrification, the gas transition and energy efficiency.

Rosenow serves in various board and expert committee roles with current and past roles including the World Economic Forum’s Senior Executive Group on Electrification, the International Energy Agency’s Executive Committee of the DSM TCP, the European Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (eceee) and GLOBSEC.

He has also advised the International Energy Agency, the European Commission, the European Parliament, the U.S. Agency for International Development, the German Corporation for International Cooperation (GIZ), government departments in a number of countries and the UK’s Office of Gas and Electricity Markets, as well as serving as an expert witness on several occasions to the European and British Parliaments. He is a former special advisor to the British House of Commons and the lead author of the International Energy Agency’s first global assessment of market-based instruments for energy efficiency.

An accomplished academic, Rosenow has contributed extensively to energy research. He is a research associate at Oxford, Cambridge, Sussex and FU Berlin. His scholarly work includes hundreds of peer-reviewed articles, technical reports and opinion pieces on energy and sustainability, which have been widely cited and used to shape policy discussions.

Rosenow is also a highly sought-after keynote speaker, regularly invited to present at national and international conferences. His speaking engagements include the United Nations, the International Energy Agency, the World Economic Forum, the European Parliament and more. He is also the co-founder and co-host of the “Watt Matters” podcast, where he discusses energy and sustainability issues with leading experts.

In recognition of his impact in the energy sector, Rosenow has been named one of the top 100 players in the global climate space and among the top 25 energy influencers and top 15 sustainability influencers worldwide. Additionally, he is one of LinkedIn’s Top Green Voices. His commitment to advancing the UK’s energy future led to his election as a fellow of the Royal Society of Arts, and his contributions to the energy sector have earned him a fellowship at the Energy Institute.

Jan Rosenow earned several postgraduate qualifications, including a master’s degree in environmental policy and regulation from the London School of Economics and a doctorate from Oxford University.

On Twitter: @janrosenow

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/janrosenow

On the Web:
https://www.janrosenow.com/
https://www.raponline.org/experts/jan-rosenow/

Geek rating: 7

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[Episode #225] – Demand Side Solutions

May 29 2024

Mini Episode

Energy transition is often depicted as a choice between different supply-side technologies such as wind or solar versus oil and coal. However, the demand side of the energy transition — focusing on efficiency improvements to buildings, adopting walking and biking over driving, and electrifying consumer appliances — deserves just as much attention.

Would you believe that widespread adoption of demand-side measures like these could cut the UK’s energy demand in half without sacrificing services or quality of life? That’s one of the key insights our guest in this episode has to share.

Nick Eyre is one of the most well-informed experts on the demand side of the energy transition. He is Professor of Energy and Climate Policy, and Senior Research Fellow in Energy, at the Environmental Change Institute at Oxford University in England. He serves as the Director of the Centre for Research into Energy Demand Solutions, which is UK Research and Innovation’s (UKRI's) primary investment in energy use research. He is also a Co-Director of the Oxford Martin Programme on Integrating Renewable Energy, which is undertaking research on the combined, technical, economic, social and policy issues in moving to electricity systems with very high levels of variable renewables.

For the past five years, Nick has led a comprehensive project involving hundreds of researchers to review nearly 500 publications on the demand side of energy. This project concluded at the end of 2023, and he joins us today to share its key insights. He’ll help us understand the most important demand-side decarbonization strategies in 2024, and what we can do to accelerate their deployment. It’s a really comprehensive, yet very accessible (and not too geeky) discussion that offers at least a few practical insights that all of our listeners could readily consider applying in their own lives.

Guest:

Nick Eyre is Professor of Energy and Climate Policy, and Senior Research Fellow in Energy, at the Environmental Change Institute. He is Director of the Centre for Research into Energy Demand Solutions, which is UKRI’s main investment into research on energy use. He is also a Co-Director of the Oxford Martin Programme on Integrating Renewable Energy, which is undertaking research on the combined, technical, economic, social and policy issues in moving to electricity systems with very high levels of variable renewables.

Professor Eyre acts as scientific advisor on climate change to Oxford City Council. He is interested in the role of public policy in reducing energy demand and carbon emissions, and the transition to zero carbon energy systems. This includes the integration of renewable energy into energy systems, energy market reform, policy instruments for energy efficiency and the role of local government and communities.

Professor Eyre was one of the UK’s first researchers on mitigation of carbon emissions, and was co-author of a presentation to the Cabinet on this issue in 1989. In 1997, he wrote the first published study on how the Government’s 20% carbon emission reduction target might be delivered. He has advised successive governments and a wide range of Parliamentary inquiries. He managed a large European Commission programme on the external costs of energy and was lead author of the report used as the basis for the UK Government’s first estimate of the social cost of carbon. From 1999 to 2007 he was Head of Policy and then Directory of Strategy at the Energy Saving Trust.

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nick-eyre-96951a33

On the Web: Nick’s faculty page at Oxford

Geek rating: 3

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[Episode #131] – Decarbonizing the US by 2050

Sep 30 2020

Mini Episode

Is it possible to decarbonize the economy of the United States, and get to net-zero emissions by 2050? A team of researchers from 15 countries who are part of the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project think so, based on their deep modeling of the US economy as part of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN). We introduced this work at a high level in Episode #129, during our conversation with Dr. Jeffrey Sachs, the Director of the SDSN. In this episode, we take a deep dive into the modeling itself with one of the modelers involved in the project. We’ll look at the specific energy technologies, devices, and grid management strategies that will make decarbonization by 2050 possible, and see why they think that decarbonizing the US is not only achievable by 2050, but practical, and very, very affordable.

Geek rating: 9

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[Episode #129] – Deep Decarbonization Policy for the US

Sep 2 2020

Mini Episode

We have seen numerous models showing how a mostly- or fully-decarbonized energy system can work, but how do we actually plot a path from where we are now to a deeply decarbonized energy system in the future? What are the specific policy pathways that we need to follow? And how can we make sure that we’re making the right moves now to put ourselves on those paths?

In this episode, we speak with renowned economist Dr. Jeffrey Sachs of Columbia University about why deep decarbonization must be our goal for the global economy, as well as some of the main pathways to that goal. Based on numerous studies, including the output of the multi-country Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project, as well as several major papers which are in the process of being published under the auspices of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN), we discuss how energy transition is actually very affordable and practical, and will ultimately deliver a better world on numerous fronts. Dr. Sachs shares with us not only his vision for a global energy transition, but some deep insights, based on his 40 years of study, about the importance of strong leadership in achieving it, and some of the interesting parallels between this moment and the Great Depression.

Geek rating: 3

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[Episode #101] – What We Don’t Know About Energy Transition

Aug 7 2019

Mini Episode

In this live conversation recorded at Stanford Energy Week in January 2019, Chris Nelder hosts a freewheeling chat with Jonathan Koomey about some of the things we think we know, and a lot of the things we don’t know about energy transition. They talked about:

the vogue concept in energy transition to “electrify everything,” sometimes also called “deep decarbonization”
energy efficiency
conservation
electrification
low-carbon fuels
how to reduce greenhouse gases that are not the products of combustion
the fast-changing trends in electric vehicles, and how we’re going to accommodate the loads of EVs on the power grid
the ways to move space heating and other thermal loads over to the power grid, and how we might be able to meet those needs without combustion or electrification
how much electricity storage we’ll really need in a deeply decarbonized future
how much seasonal storage we’ll need, and what kinds
differences between economic optimizations made today for a future 20-30 years off and technical optimizations made along the way
what the options might look like in 20-30 years, particularly if we are at the beginning of a vigorous and deliberate energy transition
whether space heating, transportation, and other loads might find themselves in competition for economic carrying capacity on the grid as they become electrified.

So join us for this wide-ranging romp through some of the more interesting questions in energy transition!

Geek rating: 9

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