Are EV sales about to hit an inflection point and rapidly take majority market shares for new vehicles?
And if they are, does that portend a peak in global oil demand before the end of this decade?
The transportation team at BloombergNEF certainly thinks so.
In this data-packed, two-hour conversation, team lead Colin McKerracher walks us through their latest report, Electric Vehicle Outlook 2023, published in September. We explore the outlook for EVs, plug-in hybrids, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in all vehicle classes. We consider the differing trajectories of EV adoption in various parts of the world, and especially the rapid uptake of two- and three-wheeled electric vehicles in Asia. We discuss the looming need for more charging infrastructure and the implications of increased vehicular demand for the utility industry. We review the changing competitive landscape for the world’s major automakers, and see which ones are leading and which ones are lagging, and why. And we revisit the question of whether the world can produce enough key minerals to keep EV production growing.
Electric vehicles have many fairly well-known advantages over conventional, petroleum-fueled vehicles. But what most people are yet to realize is the massive energetic advantage an EV can have when powered by renewables over a conventional vehicle powered by oil. In fact, an EV powered by wind or solar can deliver six to seven times as much mobility as a typical car powered by gasoline. This startling finding implies that in the long run, oil prices would need to drop drastically for conventional cars to remain competitive with EVs running on renewables. In fact, the price of oil would have to fall far below the current breakeven price for producing it. In other words, it could mean the end of growth in oil demand. In this episode, we take a deep dive into all the numbers involved in this fascinating analysis by a veteran sell-side analyst with BNP Paribas. Oil producers and automakers ignore these findings at their peril.
Electric vehicles are all the rage right now, and hopes are high that we might finally be able to transition off of oil and on to electric cars…preferably, cars powered by clean renewable electricity and not by coal-fired grid power. But they’re still less than 1% of the new vehicle market, and they still face real challenges in consumer acceptance, a lack of charging infrastructure, and a dearth of options at the dealership. So what should we really expect from EVs in the near- and medium-term, and how realistic are the high hopes for switching a nation like the US, with nearly 260 million conventional light vehicles on the road today, over to EVs? We talk to EV expert Matthew Klippenstein to find out.