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[Episode #274] – Global Electricity Review 2026

Apr 22 2026

Mini Episode

For years, transition skeptics have argued that what's really happening globally is "energy addition," where renewables are piling on top of fossil fuels rather than pushing them aside. The data that's just landing from 2025 finally puts that argument to rest.

For the first time, global electricity generation from fossil fuels fell, not because of a pandemic shutdown, recession, or unusual weather, but simply because renewables grew faster than demand. Power-sector emissions dropped along with it, also a first. Solar recorded the largest single-year increase of any electricity source on record, with the exception of coal's rebound as the world re-opened after 2020. And renewable generation surpassed coal in the modern era for the first time.

These are just a few of the important findings in Ember's Global Electricity Review 2026. To unpack what they mean, and what they don't, we welcome back to the program Nicolas Fulghum, Senior Energy and Climate Data Analyst at Ember and one of the report's lead authors. Nic was last on the show in Episode #254 reviewing the 2025 edition of this report, which became our most popular episode of the year, and which we re-released without paywall in Episode #266.

In today's show, we'll see how the structural decline in fossil generation, long-anticipated by transitionistas, finally arrived. We'll hear why solar's growth rate refuses to slow even as the technology matures. And we'll explore how the second fossil fuel shock of the decade, this time from the Iran war we covered in Episode #272, is pushing more countries to accelerate their move off imported fuels. The energy transition isn't coming. It's here, and it's getting more unstoppable every year.

Guest:

Nicolas Fulghum is a Senior Energy and Climate Data Analyst at the global energy think Ember, and one of the lead authors of Ember’s flagship report – the Global Electricity Review.

On Bluesky: @nicolasfulghum.bsky.social

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicolas-fulghum/

On Twitter: @nicolasfulghum

Geek rating: 8

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[Episode #273] – Solar and Batteries Can Power the World

Apr 8 2026

Mini Episode

In the sunniest parts of the world, solar and batteries are already the cheapest way to build new power generation capacity on an unsubsidized full system cost basis, and that cost advantage is expanding quickly.

By the end of this decade, solar and batteries could affordably supply 90% of electricity for most of the world's population at less than €80/MWh—that's a full system cost, including fuel-based backup, for about US 8.7¢/kWh. While this is already cheaper than building a new gas-fired grid, given that European gas prices spiked to ten times their normal level during the 2022 energy crisis and remain volatile today, the gap is only likely to widen.

But beyond 2030—well within the lifetime of any new power generation system built today—solar and batteries will almost certainly be the cheapest, most reliable, and least volatile way to expand a power grid. Doubling down on fossil gas generation under these conditions, as many governments are contemplating, would be a terrible mistake, both economically and geopolitically.

That is the central finding of a model developed by Tom Brown, professor for Digital Transformation in Energy Systems at the Technical University of Berlin. Tom also led the development of the open-source toolbox Python for Power System Analysis (PyPSA), and based this analysis on a blog post titled "Solar and batteries can power the world." If you doubt the conclusions, you can run the model and test the assumptions yourself.

In today's episode, we'll dig into how the model works, what happens when you add wind to the mix, and why battery costs could halve again by 2050, making solar-dominated grids dramatically cheaper than anything we can build with gas. We'll also examine the land question and find that powering the world with solar would take just 0.3% of global land, a fraction of what we currently devote to livestock. And we'll revisit how to meet that last 10% of demand, a topic we last explored in Episode #188 with Paul Denholm of NREL, and hear Tom's case for methanol as a surprisingly practical backup fuel.

Guest:

Dr. Tom Brown is professor for “Digital Transformation in Energy Systems” at the Technical University of Berlin. His group researches future pathways for the energy system, with a particular focus on revealing the trade-offs between energy resources, network expansion, flexibility and public acceptance of new infrastructure. His recent research has emphasised the need for an integrated approach to planning for electricity, heat, and molecules as we head to a net-zero economy. Tom is a strong supporter of openness and transparency in research data and software, with the goal to enable a vigorous public debate on the trade-offs necessary to reach climate neutrality. He led the development of the widely-used open-source toolbox Python for Power System Analysis (PyPSA). Before joining TU Berlin in 2021, he led a Helmholtz Young Investigator Group at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology. He did his BA and MMath at Cambridge University and his PhD at Queen Mary, University of London.

On the Web:

Personal blog

Department of Digital Transformation in Energy Systems at the Technical University of Berlin

On LinkedIn: Tom Brown

On Bluesky: @nworbmot.bsky.social

On Mastodon: @nworbmot@mastodon.social

Geek rating: 8

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[Episode #272] – Global Energy Crisis 2026

Mar 25 2026

Full Episode

The attacks on Iran by US and Israel have touched off a regional conflict that has resulted in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil and LNG transits, and is doing severe, ongoing damage to oil and gas infrastructure throughout the Persian Gulf. We are now in a new global energy crisis.

IEA coordinated the largest release ever of oil from strategic reserves to calm the oil market, but traders shrugged it off and oil prices kept climbing, because a physical disruption at this scale is totally unprecedented. Even so, veteran oil traders and journalists have warned that the world is still not recognizing the depth of the actual peril it's in. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol called this crisis "the greatest global energy security threat in history" and said, "I believe the world has not yet well understood the depth of the energy security challenge we are facing." IEA also admonished governments to take steps to conserve fuel, including urging their citizens to drive more slowly, work from home, take public transport and car sharing, avoid air travel, and switch to electric cooking. The last time IEA called for such wide-ranging demand reduction was in the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo.

The consequences are already cascading well beyond oil: Fertilizer prices have surged 25 to 40 percent, and a similar increase in the price of diesel will flow through to essentially everything, causing "fossilflation." In response, governments across Asia have begun curbing consumption: Bangladesh is shutting universities early to save power, Thailand and Vietnam are pushing civil servants to work from home, and Myanmar has imposed fuel rationing. And that's just the beginning.

To help us understand this rapidly-worsening reality, we are joined by Rory Johnston, one of the most widely cited independent oil market analysts, founder of the Commodity Context newsletter, and host of the Oil Ground Up podcast. Johnston, who typically avoids alarmist price calls, says $200 a barrel minimum is now on the table. We discuss why the world's emergency supply tools aren't working, where oil prices could go from here, and why this crisis has thrown the world into uncharted territory.

It could take the world years to recover from this…but in that interim, it's likely to accelerate the energy transition.

To help everyone cut through the fog of war and disinformation, and understand what is happening and how it will affect them, we are publishing this episode without a paywall. So please share it widely.

Guest:

Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, host of the Oil Ground Up podcast, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines.

He is a leading voice on oil market analysis, advising institutional investors, global policy makers, and corporate decision makers. His views are regularly quoted in major international media including the Financial Times, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, Reuters, BNN Bloomberg, CBC, and Financial Post, and he frequently appears on numerous market and industry podcasts (e.g., Bloomberg’s Odd Lots, Hidden Forces, etc.).

Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank where he set the bank’s energy and metals price forecasts, advised the bank’s executives and clients, and sat on the bank’s senior credit committee for commodity-exposed sectors.

On the Web:  Commodity Context

Podcast: Oil Ground Up podcast

On Twitter: @Rory_Johnston

On Bluesky: @roryjohnston.bsky.social

On LinkedIn: Rory Johnston

Geek rating: 8

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[Episode #271] – China Update 2026

Mar 11 2026

Mini Episode

China's total CO2 emissions went flat and slowly started declining almost two years ago, but you probably wouldn't know it from reading the news about how its pipeline of coal power plant projects surged to a record high in 2025.

Similarly, recent data shows that China's coal power output fell by 1% in 2025, even as it built more coal plants than it had in a decade.

These kinds of conundrums are typical for China, with its complex interaction of economic forces and top-down state planning. But once you understand what's driving them, it all makes sense—just not a Western economic kind of sense.

To help us untangle this picture, we welcome back Lauri Myllyvirta, co-founder and lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), who last joined us in Episode #138, all the way back in 2021. We were overdue for an update.

In this episode, we dig into this coal conundrum—why China added 78 GW of new coal capacity in 2025, more than India built in an entire decade, even as customers pay $14 billion a year in capacity payments to coal plants that may not even run. We look at the 315 GW of solar and 120 GW of wind China added last year, and how 75 GW of new storage is helping to displace coal power. And we discuss why China's clean energy investments now make up more than a third of its GDP growth—without them, 2025 growth would have been 3.5% instead of 5%.

Although its fleet of coal power plants continues to grow, there is good news here. Because as the largest energy consumer in the world, China's declining emissions mean emissions are declining globally.

Guest:

Lauri Myllyvirta is the lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). Lauri has over 10 years’ experience as an air pollution and climate expert. He has led numerous research projects on air pollution, assessing air quality and health impacts of energy policies, including more than a dozen modeling studies of the air quality and health impacts of coal-fired power plants. This research has been published and utilized in numerous countries in East Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, Europe, Turkey, South Africa and others. Lauri has also contributed to numerous publications around energy solutions and air pollution and is asked frequently to attend seminars and conferences as an expert speaker. He served as a member of the Technical Working Group on regulating emissions from large combustion plants in the EU and currently serves as a member of the expert panel on regulating SO2 emissions in South Africa.

On Bluesky: @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social

On Twitter: @laurimyllyvirta

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lauri-myllyvirta-3164703b/

On the Web:  Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) | Lauri’s page at CarbonBrief

Geek rating: 7

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[Episode #270] – View from the Energy Transitions Commission

Feb 25 2026

Mini Episode

Both the IEA and BNEF now project that current policies put us on track for roughly 2.5°C of warming. Some voices, like Daniel Yergin and Bill Gates, argue we should accept that trajectory and focus only on the technologies that are already winning. But even 2.5°C is still much too high. We can and must do better.

To help us take stock of the global energy transition in today's conversation, we are fortunate to be joined by Lord Adair Turner, co-chair of the Energy Transitions Commission (ETC), headquartered in London. The Commission is a global coalition of major power and industrial companies, investors, environmental NGOs, and experts working on achievable pathways to limit global warming while stimulating economic development and social progress. Lord Turner chaired the UK Climate Change Committee from 2008 to 2012, chairs insurance group Chubb Europe, and is a crossbench (non-partisan) member of the House of Lords.

We discuss how the transition is reshaping geopolitics, why the ETC's forecasts for green hydrogen have been cut roughly in half, and what Europe's green industrial policy (including its carbon border adjustment mechanism) needs to get right. We explore the roles of China and the UK in mobilizing capital for the developing world, how the UK has achieved a 75% decarbonization of its power sector in just 14 years, and what Turner calls 'double banking' — the core challenge of the mid-transition, where we're paying to build new energy systems while the old ones can't yet be switched off.

Turner makes the case that well below 2°C is still achievable, but only if we return to the climate imperative alongside the technological opportunity.

Guest:

Lord Adair Turner chairs the Energy Transitions Commission, a global coalition of major power and industrial companies, investors, environmental NGOs and experts working out achievable pathways to limit global warming to below 2˚C by 2040 while stimulating economic development and social progress.

In addition, he is chairman of insurance group Chubb Europe as well as of Oaknorth Bank (a UK start-up lending money to small and medium companies); he is a board member of battery production company AESC Japan; and Advisor to Watershed Technologies Inc. since 2023.

Lord Turner chaired the UK’s Financial Services Authority from 2008 to 2013, overseeing the UK’s policy and regulatory response to the Global Financial Crisis and  playing a lead role in the post crisis redesign of global banking and shadow banking regulation.

During his public policy career, he was Director General of the Confederation of British Industry (1995-2000); chaired the UK Low Pay Commission (2002-2006); the Pensions Commision (2003-2006); and the UK Climate Change Committee (2008-2012) an independent body to advise the UK Government on tackling climate change. The recommendations set out in their first report “Building a low-carbon economy” were adopted in 2009. He became a cross bench member of the House of Lords in 2006.

Amongst his business roles, Lord Turner was at McKinsey & Co (1982-1995) and has served in several Non-Executive Directorships across a wide range of financial, business and not-for-profit boards, such as Merrill Lynch Europe (2000-2006), Standard Chartered plc (2006-2008), Prudential (2015-2019), Overseas Development Institute (2007-20200, Save the Children (2006-2008).

Lord Turner is the author of “Between Debt and the Devil” (Princeton 2015), and Economics after the Crisis (MIT 2012). He makes regular contributions in the printed press, in the UK and abroad.

He is a Trustee Emeritus of the British Museum, honorary fellow of The Royal Society, and received an Honorary Degree from Cambridge University in 2017.

Lord Turner has an MA in History (First class with Distinction) and an MA in Economics (First Class) from Gonville and Caius College, Cambridge University.

On X: @AdairTurnerUK

Energy Transitions Commission on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/energy-transitions-commission/

On the Web: Energy Transitions Commission

Geek rating: 6

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[Episode #269] – Trump’s War on the Energy Transition

Feb 11 2026

Mini Episode

In the first year of his second term, President Donald Trump waged an all-out war on the energy transition. His administration canceled hundreds of projects created under the Inflation Reduction Act, IIJA, and CHIPS Act, blocked offshore wind farm development, and forced aging fossil-fueled power plants to continue operating after their utility owners planned to shut them down. It weaponized every federal agency from Interior to the Department of Commerce against renewable energy, seized Venezuela's oil, and pulled the US out of participation in key UN climate bodies.

The results have been staggering. Over 22 GW of wind and solar projects have been thwarted or thrown into limbo, and fully half of the country's planned new power capacity, some 117 GW, is at risk of delay. The Department of Energy has issued "emergency" orders to keep six aging coal and gas plants open, invoking a provision of the Federal Power Act originally written for wartime. None of these federal interventions were requested by a utility, grid operator, or state regulator. Courts have been pushing back hard, calling these actions arbitrary, capricious, unreasonable, and seemingly unjustified.

Whether any of these executive actions will survive is the central question. In today's conversation, we are rejoined by Ari Peskoe, Director of the Electricity Law Initiative at Harvard Law School, to walk through dozens of Trump's energy interventions and assess which ones are likely to hold up against the growing wave of legal challenges being brought against them. As we discuss, the courts are doing a surprisingly effective job of striking down the administration's illegal maneuvers. But every project delayed or canceled while the cases grind through court is inflicting real damage on the energy transition.

Guest:

Ari Peskoe is Director of the Electricity Law Initiative at Harvard Law School.  He has written extensively about electricity regulation, on issues ranging from rooftop solar to Constitutional challenges to states’ energy laws.

On Twitter: @AriPeskoe

On the Web: Electricity Law Initiative at Harvard Law School

Geek rating: 1

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[Episode #268] – Activism 101

Jan 28 2026

Mini Episode

If you want to see the energy transition succeed where you live, you might want to get involved in some local advocacy campaigns, or even become an organizer yourself. But how?

The energy and climate movement is overwhelmingly popular. Surveys consistently show broad public support for clean energy. Yet energy transition issues rarely crack the top ten concerns of most voters, and we remain remarkably bad at enacting political consequences when decision-makers ignore us. If being right were enough, energy transitionistas would have won by now.

In this episode, Carter Lavin—a climate and transportation activist who has spent 15 years training nonprofits, grassroots groups, businesses, and individuals to win local and state-level campaigns—shares what he's learned. His new book, If You Want to Win, You've Got to Fight - A Guide to Effective Transportation Advocacy, serves as a handbook for anyone who wants to move the needle on policies that support energy transition in their own community.

We discuss how to translate your goals into specific campaigns, how to connect with allies who share your values, and how to apply pressure at the right decision points. Carter explains the "inside-outside game" that bridges the gap between wonks who read 500-page regulatory filings and activists who show up at protests. We explore power mapping, coalition building, and why working on multiple campaigns simultaneously makes your movement stronger.

If you're ready to move from watching the energy transition unfold to actively shaping it, this conversation will show you how.

Guest:

Carter Lavin is a climate and transportation activist who helps organizations and individuals hone strategy and build political power. For over 15 years, Carter has directly supported and trained non-profits, candidates, grassroots groups, businesses, and hundreds of individuals to win on the issues that matter to them at the local, regional, and state level.

He has written for Streetsblog and Convergence Magazine. He lives in Oakland, California and is a co-founder of the transportation advocacy group Transbay Coalition and the board game design company Serious Mischief.

On Substack: https://carterlavin.substack.com/

On Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/carterlavin.bsky.social

On the Web:  https://www.carterlavin.com/ | https://www.transbaycoalition.org/

Geek rating: 1

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[Episode #267] – Japan: Petrostate or Electrostate?

Jan 14 2026

Mini Episode

Depending on where you live, the energy transition might feel like it's stalling or accelerating faster than ever. Countries are sorting themselves into two camps: petrostates seeking to stay on the fossil fuel path, and electrostates racing toward renewables, batteries, EVs, and other "electrotech." Under Trump, the US is joining Russia and Saudi Arabia in the petrostate camp, while China is leading much of the rest of the world in the opposite direction by exporting electrotech to the developing world as well as developed countries that lack domestic fossil fuel resources.

But as countries follow different paths through the energy transition, where does that leave Japan? Importing 100% of its oil and gas means it ranks among the world's most energy-vulnerable nations. After the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant disaster in 2011, Japan has lost more than a decade to inaction, stuck between a public that no longer trusts nuclear power and a political establishment reluctant to abandon enormous sunk costs in nuclear capacity. Now Japan has reached a crossroads. It can side with the petrostates, go with the electrostates, or try to straddle the line between them.

To explore Japan's options, Chris interviewed Nobuo Tanaka, former Executive Director of the International Energy Agency from 2007 to 2011. Tanaka now chairs the steering committee of Japan's Innovation for Cool Earth Forum and advises Japanese and international companies on energy strategy.

In this conversation, we'll hear Tanaka's bold proposal for Japan, Korea, and China to set aside their historical conflicts and form an electrostate alliance, much as France and Germany did after World War II when they created the European Coal and Steel Community. Tanaka also makes the case for a new generation of nuclear technology as Japan's path forward, a view on which he and Chris differ, though they agree on the stakes. And, based on his long experience in international geopolitical forums, Tanaka explains how US policy is pushing Europe and much of the rest of the world closer to China.

Guest:

Nobuo Tanaka is Executive Director Emeritus, The International Energy Agency (IEA).

Nobuo Tanaka is Chairman of the steering committee of the Innovation for Cool Earth Forum (ICEF), which was established by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2014. As Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) from 2007 to 2011, he initiated a collective release of oil stocks in June 2011. He began his career in 1973 in the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), and has served in a number of high-ranking positions, including Director- General of the Multilateral Trade System Department. He was deeply engaged in bilateral trade issues with the US as Minister for Industry, Trade and Energy at the Embassy of Japan, Washington DC. He has also served twice as Director for Science, Technology and Industry (DSTI) of the Paris-based international organization, OECD. As CEO of Tanaka Global Inc, he advises several Japanese and International companies.

Geek rating: 8

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[Episode #266] – Global Electricity Review 2025 (Lagniappe edition)

Dec 31 2025

Full Episode

Happy new year!

To close out 2025, by popular demand, we're lifting the paywall on Episode #254, our comprehensive review of the state of the global energy transition with Ember's Nic Fulghum. This is one of our occasional lagniappe shows—that's what they call a little something extra in New Orleans, like the 13th bagel in a baker's dozen. So, all of our listeners on the free feed can see what you've been missing! We hope you'll share it widely with friends and colleagues because it cuts through the noise with hard data on the state of the global energy transition from one of 2025's most important reports.

Despite claims from both "fossil gradualists" who would like to see the energy transition fail, and "net-zero puritans" who deny that the energy transition is happening at all because emissions are still rising, the transition is very much under way and gathering momentum. Countries are switching to renewables, electrifying transportation and decarbonizing heating faster than even the most seasoned energy analysts thought was possible, while the fossil fuel holdouts still white-knuckling their strategies are quickly dwindling in number.

Ember, a clean energy think tank, published a report in April 2025 titled Global Electricity Review 2025 that plainly lays out these facts. One of its lead authors, Nic Fulghum, joined us in this conversation to discuss the report's findings in a conversation absolutely packed with the data you can use to win any debate with a transition denier.

Nic outlines how solar is growing faster than any energy source in human history, electrification of transport and heating are advancing quickly enough to materially slash fossil fuel demand, and power generation from fossil fuels is headed into structural decline. Global power-sector emissions may finally be close to peaking, thanks to the accelerating energy transition.

Guest:

Nicolas Fulghum is a Senior Energy and Climate Data Analyst at the global energy think Ember, and one of the lead authors of Ember’s flagship report – the Global Electricity Review.

On Bluesky: @nicolasfulghum.bsky.social

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicolas-fulghum/

On Twitter: @nicolasfulghum

Geek rating: 8

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[Episode #265] – IEA World Energy Outlook 2025

Dec 17 2025

Mini Episode

In November, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its annual World Energy Outlook (WEO) report. It was greeted with cheers from the fossil fuel industry and jeers from energy transitionistas, but there is much more to the report than either camp's narratives suggest. So Chris returned to IEA headquarters in Paris to discuss the WEO with lead author Tim Gould, as he has done for the past two years (Episode #215 and Episode #248), to get the story straight from the source.

What he found is that the revived Current Policies Scenario (CPS) shows what could happen if the energy transition is stopped in its tracks and fossil fuel demand continues to grow, as the Trump administration has stated it would like to see. While other scenarios explore continued progress in energy transition consistent with recent reports, where oil demand still peaks around 2030, and coal demand falls before the decade ends.

The report's updated global data tells another story. The oil industry spends $550 billion annually on upstream development, and 90% of that just keeps production flat. Meanwhile, 45% of new heavy freight trucks sold in China this year run on electricity or LNG, not diesel. And in the Middle East, solar is increasingly displacing oil for electricity generation and desalination of water. In Saudi Arabia alone, this could free up over a million barrels of daily consumption.

In fact, in this year's report, IEA declares that "the Age of Electricity is here." For the first time, more than half of all energy sector investment is flowing into electricity. Renewables grow "faster than any other major energy source in all scenarios."

The picture is clear: the energy transition is still going strong.

Guest:

Tim Gould is co-head of the World Energy Outlook series at the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA). He designs and directs the work together with the IEA’s Chief Energy Modeller and contributes to the Outlook as a principal author. He also oversees the Agency’s analysis of energy investment and finance, including the World Energy Investment series. Tim has been at the IEA since 2008, and joined initially as a specialist on Russian and Caspian energy before going across to join the World Energy Outlook team under the (then) Chief Economist, Fatih Birol, who is now the IEA’s Executive Director. Before IEA, he worked on European and Eurasian energy issues in Brussels and also spent ten years working in Eastern Europe, primarily in Ukraine. He studied at Oxford University and Johns Hopkins SAIS.

On Twitter: @tim_gould_

On the Web:  http://www.iea.org

Geek rating: 8

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